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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#481
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out. Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.

More leverage with less conventional firepower? Objectives of reducing conventional military threats and nuclear weapons seem less now, no?

Iran looks like it will get a toll on Strait traffic. This money, plus even a partial lifting of sanctions, will be a windfall.

Any Iranian leadership whose brains are not made of sawdust will use that money to race to a nuclear weapon. Clearly, we are in an era where the only reliable nuclear umbrella is locally sourced and homegrown. Expect a dominant geopolitical theme to be proliferation as every state that feels somewhat threatened boots up a nuclear weapons program. From ~9 states today, we should expect to see ~30 within the next 10-15 years.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Evil dictator who killed millions of people in his lifetime is also now dead.

He was 86 and is now, unfortunately, a beloved martyr rather than the symbol of an old and decaying regime.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> So we should have let Iran have nukes? How many lives would have been lost then? Fewer, because we would've been deterred from attacking them. Unless we decided to risk nuclear war, I guess.

US doesn't have to engage for Iran to use nukes. But of course we should prevent that from becoming a realistic scenario?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#484
post #454
post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to attend elementary school on a military base. I didn't feel like a human shield at the time, then again I was more naive and had less life experience than I do now.

You weren’t a human shield. It would have been very easy for the US and Israel to not have blown up a school, the attack was intentional. Notice they had 0 issues precisely striking the building housing Iranian leadership when this whole thing started. They didn’t “accidentally” hit the grocery store two blocks away.

For what reason would they attack a single school? Some strikes being well some doesn't mean others can't be mistaken.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#485

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

This is the counter argument: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres Here's hoping the regime is destabilised enough to topple by itself.

i dont imagine spending a bunch on the military and oil is nearly enough to topple the US government.

what case does it make that the constitution needs to be abandoned?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Nukes are not really for actual use but for deterrence so likely no lives would have been lost. Israel has nukes and they don't use them unless somebody attacks them with nukes. Same with other countries. Ideally both Israel and Iran as well as North Korea, maybe also Pakistan and India should not have nukes. And even more ideal it would be if nobody had them but the cat's out of the bag already.

Iran has repeatedly stated their intent to use them.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#488

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

[flagged]

does iran even want nukes?

they have a religious law against making or using them, and theyve been sitting at "they could make a nuke within a week" for the past 20 years or more

it feels like people are falling for iran's bargaining chip - they want people to think they could make one, but not actually make one

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#490

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

I can’t accept the theocratic tyrants who implement terrorism, execute their own people and slaughter them as they protest remain in charge. They should be forced out of power.

I wonder if the US had struck when momentum was high during the popular uprising, it could have being self sustaining, with arms and logistics setup to feed the resistance advance.

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