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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

451–460 of 1001 posts

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#451

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

[flagged]

> So we should have let Iran have nukes? How many lives would have been lost then?

Fewer, because we would've been deterred from attacking them. Unless we decided to risk nuclear war, I guess.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#452

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

[flagged]

> we should have let Iran have nukes?

What part of this war has made Iran less likely to get a nuclear weapon?

There could have been a good war in Iran. A coalition of nations going in to secure the uranium. It would have been messy. But it would have had a clean objective.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#453

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

[flagged]

This regime has been around for half a century. We supposedly destroyed their nuclear program last summer. And somehow their nuclear potential just became a war-worthy threat in February? Come on. Don’t tell me you actually believe that shit.

Unless we actually invade, all this war will do is demonstrate to Iran that obtaining nuclear weapons is an existential necessity for them, and kick the program into high gear. Oh, and provide them with plenty of funding for it due to their newfound ability to collect tolls for a vital shipping chokepoint.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#454
post #431

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

I used to attend elementary school on a military base. I didn't feel like a human shield at the time, then again I was more naive and had less life experience than I do now.

You weren’t a human shield. It would have been very easy for the US and Israel to not have blown up a school, the attack was intentional.

Notice they had 0 issues precisely striking the building housing Iranian leadership when this whole thing started. They didn’t “accidentally” hit the grocery store two blocks away.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#455
post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

> They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission

This is fake Iranian propaganda. It makes no logical sense. The force sent to extract the F15 officer (approx 2 C130s of equipment) is far to small to retrieve tons of nuclear material stored at Isfahan.

> Military apparatus is intact

No, the IRGC is struggling. After weeks of bombardment, they are unable to provide food or basic supplies for its own army. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604074692

Sources said that over the past 72 hours, operational forces have faced acute shortages of basic supplies, including edible food, hygiene facilities and places to sleep.

Recent strikes on infrastructure and bases have left many Guards and Basij personnel sleeping in the streets, and in some areas they have had access to only one meal a day.

According to informed sources, some personnel were forced to buy food from shops and restaurants with their own money after expired rations were distributed.

At the same time, disruptions affecting Bank Sepah’s electronic systems have reportedly delayed the salaries and benefits of military personnel, fueling fresh anger and mistrust within the ranks.

Iran International had previously reported similarly dire conditions in field units, including severe shortages of ammunition, water and food, as well as growing desertions by exhausted soldiers.

Even in the Guards’ missile units, which have historically received priority treatment, sources reported serious communications failures and food shortages. They said commanders were continuing to send only technical components needed to keep missile systems operational, rather than food or basic individual supplies for personnel.

> majority of missile cities are still operating

Missile launch volume is down ~90% from the beginning days of the war.

> Millions of dollars of damage to all US assets in the gulf

Iran has taken $150-200 billion dollars in damage, to its assets, and also economy.

Their entire missile manufacturing supply chain was destroyed, with the destruction of both the Parchin Military Complex and Khojir Missile Production Center, they have no ability to produce more. The Iranian missile problem was one of the primary causes of this conflict.

Both the Mobarakeh Steel & Khuzestan Steel factories have shut down. They are responsible for 1% of Iran's GDP, and billions of dollars of profits which fund the Iranian economy.

If there were no ceasefire, Iranian power and petroleum facilities would be destroyed today. Both sides do not want this to happen, because it would set back the Iranian economy by a decade, and cause an enormous humanitarian crisis.

It is not possible to run a modern economy without fuel or electricity.

> Multiple US air crafts damaged and many wounded

Iran lost its entire air force, and navy; losses are far higher on the Iranian side than US/Israeli.

So far, the US/Israel have not lost any ability to continue combat operations; they can maintain this level of bombardment for months.

It is not possible to run an advanced economy, capable of manufacturing missiles and drones at scale, under perpetual bombardment.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#456

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

[flagged]

Nukes are not really for actual use but for deterrence so likely no lives would have been lost. Israel has nukes and they don't use them unless somebody attacks them with nukes. Same with other countries. Ideally both Israel and Iran as well as North Korea, maybe also Pakistan and India should not have nukes. And even more ideal it would be if nobody had them but the cat's out of the bag already.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#457

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

[flagged]

If Israel can have them, yes. Ideally, neither Israel nor Iran would have them.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#458

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Why would the US accept these terms? They could just keep crippling Iran’s infrastructure and fuel supply and more until their new leadership fractures. Is this entirely about midterm elections?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#459
post #215
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

They also got to keep their new Ayatollah and continue with their religious government. An escalation of the war would have certainly ended with a complete regime change. Which would have been very expensive in life (Iranians) and money (Americans).

Their new Ayatollah is braindead. It's not over yet.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#460

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

[flagged]

There was zero evidence they were close to a nuke. In fact, they've been alleged to be weeks away from a nuke for over 20 years. And the accusations come from the ones with the illegal nukes themselves!
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