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Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

#51

Post by solenoid0937 »

0x3f wrote: post #36
xvector wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I reevaluated my priors long ago when I saw that scaling laws show no sign of stopping, no sign of plateau. Strangely some people on HN seem to desperately cling to the notion that it's all going to come to a halt. This is unscientific. What evidence do you have - any evidence - that the scaling laws are due to come to an end?

All the curves have been levelling off as expected. Not really sure what you're talking about.

They have not, every successful pre-train as of late has had performance increases greater than what the scaling laws predict.

Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

#53

Post by baron816 »

ai-x wrote: post #46
ketzo wrote: post #41

$19B -> $30B annualized revenue in a month ? Feels like the lede is buried here!

[flagged]

I think you can argue that AI is going to explode and take over the economy, and it’s still a bubble.

I think one possible route is that cloud capacity just becomes totally commoditized and none of the hyperscalers will be able to extract the kinds of profit margins that would allow them to make a good return on their investment (model makers will fall victim to this too). Ultimately, what may happen is that market competition for everything explodes since AI and robots can do all the work, prices for everything (goods, services, assets) collapses, and no one is really any richer than anyone else.

Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

#54

Post by firecall »

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #5
mikert89 wrote: post #2

There's no limit to the algorithms. People dont understand yet. They can learn the whole universe with a big enough compute cluster. We built a generalizable learning machine

Not sure if this is satire. Edit: What we have built is a natural language interface to existing, textually recorded, information. Transformers cannot learn the whole universe because the universe has not yet been recorded into text.

AFAIK the data does not need to be text.

Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

#55

Post by zozbot234 »

baron816 wrote: post #53
ai-x wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I think you can argue that AI is going to explode and take over the economy, and it’s still a bubble. I think one possible route is that cloud capacity just becomes totally commoditized and none of the hyperscalers will be able to extract the kinds of profit margins that would allow them to make a good return on their investment (model makers will fall victim to this too). Ultimately, what may happen is that market c…

Even if the AI frontier becomes "totally commoditized" it will still be reliant on a scarce factor, namely leading-edge chips. Chipmakers will ultimately capture that value, because competing it away would require expanding the industry and that's a very slow process involving billion-dollar expenses planned far in advance (multiple years, and that lead time can only expand further as the required scale gets even larger).

Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

#57

Post by 0x3f »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #51
0x3f wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the curves have been levelling off as expected. Not really sure what you're talking about.

They have not, every successful pre-train as of late has had performance increases greater than what the scaling laws predict.

Those gains are arch based, data quality based, etc. Scaling laws only relate to data volume and compute, holding other factors constant.

Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

#58

Post by kdkl »

zozbot234 wrote: post #55
baron816 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you can argue that AI is going to explode and take over the economy, and it’s still a bubble. I think one possible route is that cloud capacity just becomes totally commoditized and none of the hyperscalers will be able to extract the kinds of profit margins that would allow them to make a good return on their investment (model makers will fall victim to this too). Ultimately, what may happen is that market c…

Even if the AI frontier becomes "totally commoditized" it will still be reliant on a scarce factor, namely leading-edge chips. Chipmakers will ultimately capture that value, because competing it away would require expanding the industry and that's a very slow process involving billion-dollar expenses planned far in advance (multiple years, and that lead time can only expand further as the required scale gets even lar…

Except you're neglecting the fact that LLMs can become more efficient.

The magical thing about software is that efficiency gains can come pretty quickly relative to other industries.

Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute

#60

Post by xtacy »

9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #56
ketzo wrote: post #41

$19B -> $30B annualized revenue in a month ? Feels like the lede is buried here!

Also, very very recently they said in a court filing that their lifetime revenue was "at least" 5 billion. Which is it?

Curious - what’s this court filing?
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