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OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

latimes.com

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Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#61

Post by jimbokun »

xnx wrote: post #45
brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Same thing happened to Blackberry. Tech head start wasn't that big and product wasn't that sticky.

iOS had an API and a platform.

Is there any equivalent for turning an AI LLM into a sticky platform? Right now seems like it’s pretty easy to use harnesses and tooling across models, including open weight and locally running ones.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#62

Post by jimbokun »

yalogin wrote: post #35

Anthropic is not meaningfully better. Their stance is “the good guys have to make money to be in the fight with the bad guys” and so they do all the things their perceived bad guys do. I don’t know how they can do any different, but we just trust them to be good? What is the difference?

I just appreciate the honesty of Amodei telling us pretty much straight up we’re all fucked because the AIs are taking all the jobs in a couple years or less.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#63

Post by hsuduebc2 »

jimbokun wrote: post #58
hsuduebc2 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea. In my opinion the value provided for 20$ is better. I wonder how much of antropic value is the hype around claude code coming from every snake oil sales man promoting claude code as best to use with open claw to summarize your emails.

Claude Code became the default brand for an AI coding harness, much like ChatGPT was synonymous with AI chat bot. Even now when I hear Codex I have to stop and think “oh yeah that’s OpenAI’s competitor to Claude Code.”

Yep, exactly. It became industry standard.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#64

Post by nl »

chasd00 wrote: post #38
majormajor wrote: post #4

> The large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion has investors rushing to grab equity in the latter before it rises, according to Augment co-founder Adam Crawley. Interesting, so there are a lot of people still eager to invest in valuations of well greater than a-quarter-trillion, but OpenAI's latest raise has sucked up all the oxygen for enthusiasm of that valuation going even hig…

Did OpenAI really “raise” that much? The startup world is not my area of expertise but I remember reading language in the announcements that implied those dollar amounts where more of a conditional promise of money in the future instead of a check today.

It's a valuation, not the amount they raised.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#65

Post by oofbey »

brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Classic SV hubris. Talk to OpenAI people and they’re so convinced they’re untouchable, they don’t bother worrying about things like revenue, or product strategy. All they cared about was being the first to AGI. Well it looks like that isn’t happening soon enough. And now they have zero moat except brand recognition, which is quickly getting eroded.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#66

Post by oofbey »

phist_mcgee wrote: post #51
nickstinemates wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's why openai bought openclaw

I mean they hired the guy who created it. It's not exactly like openclaw is a real product.

Also not like it’s a particularly good piece of tech. It was the first to show a new category. But jeebus the design and security are a nightmare. Any of the numerous other claws are better choices for anything serious.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#67

Post by nl »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #44
chasd00 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did OpenAI really “raise” that much? The startup world is not my area of expertise but I remember reading language in the announcements that implied those dollar amounts where more of a conditional promise of money in the future instead of a check today.

It's raised in the sense that some people made a pinky promise to give them cash. But those people also don't have the money and have to raise it from other places. It's largely SoftBank, Oracle, Microsoft and Nvidia, all of whom don't have big piggybanks full of hundreds of billions. They ask for loans based on the promise of making cash to pay for it, and that cash is based on people wanting to use OpenAI. So it's…

This isn't right

> It's largely SoftBank, Oracle, Microsoft and Nvidia, all of whom don't have big piggybanks full of hundreds of billions.

Actually SoftBank, Microsoft and Nvidia literally have free cash sitting there.

NVIDIA for example had over $60B in audited, reported free cash flow in 2025[1]

> loans from Nvidia (at high interest rates),

Is this just something you are making up?

"NVIDIA intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as the new NVIDIA systems are deployed. The first phase is targeted to come online in the second half of 2026 using the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform."[2]

The closes there is to waht you are saying is reporting that NVIDIA has discussed guaranteeing some of the loans OpenAI is taking to build data centers:

"Nvidia is discussing guaranteeing some of the loans that OpenAI is planning to take out in order to build its own data centers, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter."[3]

This of course is the opposite of NVIDIA loaning OpenAI money - if they did this they would be liable for OpenAI's debts.

[1] https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financia...

[2] https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-and-nvidia-announc...

[3] https://archive.is/Gpvq2#selection-1299.0-1301.181

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#68

Post by drewnick »

lallysingh wrote: post #16
xhevahir wrote: post #6

Odd timing...Everything I've read about Claude the last several days suggests that its users are disappointed, even furious at what's happened to its performance.

It's been working great for me. I haven't seen any changes.

Same, mostly. However today in particular Claude can't do front-end development with any competence. Never seen this before. I think the rumor is they are rolling out a new model and have to divide their infra across the new model vs the current model.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#69

Post by bayarearefugee »

jimbokun wrote: post #60
morcutt wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sam lost the plot for me. He took too many interviews which led me to not trust him. Last straw came with him standing by Anthropic one day then throwing them under the bus the next. He showed little awareness on why that is problematic.

I have appreciated Amodei’s brutal honesty about their intentions. On podcasts his attitude is basically “oh yeah all of you are basically fucked our products will take everyone’s jobs in a couple years.” Altman is a lot more coy and comes across as saying what’s politically expedient at any given point in time.

> On podcasts his attitude is basically “oh yeah all of you are basically fucked our products will take everyone’s jobs in a couple years.”

I also appreciate his honesty, and don't really understand why the others don't emulate it because there's no cost to them to be honest. At every level of society we've decided to stick our heads in the sand and pretend like this very large tsunami isn't racing toward the coast, so as someone producing this technology you can be honest (and mostly ignored by people in denial), or be cagey and mistrusted (like Sam Altman).

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#70

Post by honeycrispy »

jimbokun wrote: post #62
yalogin wrote: post #35

Anthropic is not meaningfully better. Their stance is “the good guys have to make money to be in the fight with the bad guys” and so they do all the things their perceived bad guys do. I don’t know how they can do any different, but we just trust them to be good? What is the difference?

I just appreciate the honesty of Amodei telling us pretty much straight up we’re all fucked because the AIs are taking all the jobs in a couple years or less.

He's just another con-man. Fear of missing out is an amazing motivator for investors. The more he shouts doom, the more people with very deep pockets throw money at him. It's all evil.
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