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Iran's IRGC Publishes Satellite Imagery of OpenAI's $30B Stargate Datacenter

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Re: Iran's IRGC Publishes Satellite Imagery of OpenAI's $30B Stargate Datacenter

#2

Post by maxbond »

I don't know much about geopolitics so tell me if I'm off base but it seems to me if they're making threats it's because the facility is not a high enough priority to actually strike? If they wanted to and had enough ordinance to overwhelm whatever defenses, then they just would right? But they can't/won't so they're hoping to gain advantage without actually spending ordinance?

Regardless, it is grimly interesting to watch the next chapter of tech companies becoming increasingly significant in geopolitics.

Re: Iran's IRGC Publishes Satellite Imagery of OpenAI's $30B Stargate Datacenter

#3

Post by HWR_14 »

maxbond wrote: post #2

I don't know much about geopolitics so tell me if I'm off base but it seems to me if they're making threats it's because the facility is not a high enough priority to actually strike? If they wanted to and had enough ordinance to overwhelm whatever defenses, then they just would right? But they can't/won't so they're hoping to gain advantage without actually spending ordinance? Regardless, it is grimly interesting to…

There is no reason to just strike it. The point is it is a threat and they want to raise the cost of continuing to bomb them.

If they can strike and destroy $1 trillion worth of things it would be very dumb to do that right away. Then they will have used up all their valuable targets and they will have less leverage going forward. Instead they would want to destroy $50 billion a day until they get what they want.

Re: Iran's IRGC Publishes Satellite Imagery of OpenAI's $30B Stargate Datacenter

#4

Post by kjellsbells »

maxbond wrote: post #2

I don't know much about geopolitics so tell me if I'm off base but it seems to me if they're making threats it's because the facility is not a high enough priority to actually strike? If they wanted to and had enough ordinance to overwhelm whatever defenses, then they just would right? But they can't/won't so they're hoping to gain advantage without actually spending ordinance? Regardless, it is grimly interesting to…

Noone would be remotely surprised if Iran attacked a nominally American target, so it's puzzling why the Iranians would talk about it instead of just doing it. They would also need to be careful not to cross the line between pressuring friends of the US administration to lean on Washington and pushing so hard that those friends double down on their commitment to the US. It's not like the Gulf states are simpatico with Iran after all, they might think for example that the Shia worldview is vaguely heretical and wacky anyway so why should they not let the US shoot at them.

Re: Iran's IRGC Publishes Satellite Imagery of OpenAI's $30B Stargate Datacenter

#6

Post by icegreentea2 »

maxbond wrote: post #2

I don't know much about geopolitics so tell me if I'm off base but it seems to me if they're making threats it's because the facility is not a high enough priority to actually strike? If they wanted to and had enough ordinance to overwhelm whatever defenses, then they just would right? But they can't/won't so they're hoping to gain advantage without actually spending ordinance? Regardless, it is grimly interesting to…

The Iranian's regime's minimal goal is regime security. To that end, it aims to apply maximum pressure/cost on Israel/US, and hope that they will relent at some point. Iran has no other means to actually cause the Israel/US to stop (as in, it lacks the ability militarily deter or defeat).

Iran recognizes that it is not just the actual damage, but the credible threat of damage that incurs pressure/cost. For example, there are piles of ships holed up in the Gulf - Iran has the capability to strike at them, but they don't need to. Publicity is part of magnifying the threat.

Iran likely lacks the capability to actually assuredly destroy any single target of its choosing. Iran instead likely has the capability of destroying maybe 1-10% of targets that it actually chooses to engage. However, it can hold hundreds of targets at threat to try to ratchet up the pressure. In addition, by casting an ever wider net of claimed targets, when it does get around to attacking, it's more likely to be able to construct a narrative of "calling their shot".

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