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OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

latimes.com

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Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#41

Post by storus »

nothinkjustai wrote: post #20
majormajor wrote: post #4

> The large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion has investors rushing to grab equity in the latter before it rises, according to Augment co-founder Adam Crawley. Interesting, so there are a lot of people still eager to invest in valuations of well greater than a-quarter-trillion, but OpenAI's latest raise has sucked up all the oxygen for enthusiasm of that valuation going even hig…

Vibe coding requires the sota models to work at all, but someone who knows what they are doing and uses the AI more responsibly can absolutely use the cheaper Chinese models for coding, and they’re often faster too. If I was one of the big players my entire focus would be on lobbying for regulation and outright banning of local models.

Yeah, Qwen3 coder for Claude Code and 3.5 for OpenClaw replaced my full-stack use of Opus 4.6 already; it's fine for basic web apps, k8s/docker infra setup, optimizing AI models etc. with only slightly higher error rate than Opus. Upcoming 3.6 together with Gemma4 might make it even better (still to test). OpenAI's memory spot market play might have been directed at local inference as well.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#42

Post by nickstinemates »

phist_mcgee wrote: post #24
tombert wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's clearly because they didn't hire me after I applied :) In all seriousness, I use Codex for work and Claude at home, and I feel like nowadays they're actually pretty competitive with each other. I don't know that it's that far behind. I agree that they clearly erroneously assumed that no one would be able to catch up with them, though. OpenAI had such a head start that that should have been by itself a moat.

Does it matter that codex is now as good as claude code? Check dev spaces like twitter and discord and all anyone talks about is claude-code, openclaw, opus 4.6 etc. The mindshare went to anthropic.

that's why openai bought openclaw

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#43

Post by nothinkjustai »

storus wrote: post #41
nothinkjustai wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vibe coding requires the sota models to work at all, but someone who knows what they are doing and uses the AI more responsibly can absolutely use the cheaper Chinese models for coding, and they’re often faster too. If I was one of the big players my entire focus would be on lobbying for regulation and outright banning of local models.

Yeah, Qwen3 coder for Claude Code and 3.5 for OpenClaw replaced my full-stack use of Opus 4.6 already; it's fine for basic web apps, k8s/docker infra setup, optimizing AI models etc. with only slightly higher error rate than Opus. Upcoming 3.6 together with Gemma4 might make it even better (still to test). OpenAI's memory spot market play might have been directed at local inference as well.

Look for Deepseek 4 when it drops, I’m curious how good it will be.

The thing is, if you’re using AI responsibly today you’re already breaking down tasks to such a granular level that you don’t need the power of Opus. You can save that for deeper research tasks.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#44

Post by 0xbadcafebee »

chasd00 wrote: post #38
majormajor wrote: post #4

> The large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion has investors rushing to grab equity in the latter before it rises, according to Augment co-founder Adam Crawley. Interesting, so there are a lot of people still eager to invest in valuations of well greater than a-quarter-trillion, but OpenAI's latest raise has sucked up all the oxygen for enthusiasm of that valuation going even hig…

Did OpenAI really “raise” that much? The startup world is not my area of expertise but I remember reading language in the announcements that implied those dollar amounts where more of a conditional promise of money in the future instead of a check today.

It's raised in the sense that some people made a pinky promise to give them cash. But those people also don't have the money and have to raise it from other places. It's largely SoftBank, Oracle, Microsoft and Nvidia, all of whom don't have big piggybanks full of hundreds of billions. They ask for loans based on the promise of making cash to pay for it, and that cash is based on people wanting to use OpenAI. So it's kind of a big financial circle jerk. (Debt, SPVs, loans from Nvidia (at high interest rates), etc)

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#45

Post by xnx »

brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Same thing happened to Blackberry. Tech head start wasn't that big and product wasn't that sticky.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#46

Post by xnx »

yalogin wrote: post #35

Anthropic is not meaningfully better. Their stance is “the good guys have to make money to be in the fight with the bad guys” and so they do all the things their perceived bad guys do. I don’t know how they can do any different, but we just trust them to be good? What is the difference?

Approximately same service for half the valuation is definitely better. That said, Anthropomorphic is also very overvalued

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#48

Post by zbrozek »

neya wrote: post #32
noosphr wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on your work flow. I find that for human in the loop Gemini beats both.

Been my experience as well, but generally the anti-Google sentiment here is pretty loud so you'll never see anyone praising Gemini here pretty much

I think Antigravity w/Gemini is a great product; it's been super useful on a bunch of my hobby projects. It's especially wonderful when writing firmware and needing to add support for a new chip. I can point it at a PDF datasheet and it'll do a much better job of reading it and parsing out all of the register fields than anything else. Saves me enormous amounts of time.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#49

Post by tqi »

brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Despite what the folks here like to believe about themselves, I think the reality is we as attuned to what is in fashion and on trend as everyone else, just about different stuff. Last year it was Chatgpt, this year Claude is the new hotness. Things move so fast we barely have time to form our own opinion, so we fall back on what we read or hear from others. In 12 months who knows what it will be... Gemini? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Long term, my feeling is Anthropic's focus on enterprise is the most obviously lucrative but also least defensible application of LLMs. If (more likely when) open source models reach the point of being "good enough" then it's a race to the bottom on pricing. Maybe it will be like AWS vs GCP et al, but I kinda doubt it.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#50

Post by gabriel-uribe »

neya wrote: post #32
noosphr wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on your work flow. I find that for human in the loop Gemini beats both.

Been my experience as well, but generally the anti-Google sentiment here is pretty loud so you'll never see anyone praising Gemini here pretty much

Is anti-Google sentiment still pretty loud? People seem excited about Gemini catching up + Gemma 4
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