OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
1–10 of 161 posts
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#2tl;dr nobody wants OpenAI shares and the secondary market has completely dried up.
“We literally couldn’t find anyone in our pool of hundreds of institutional investors to take these shares“
This doesn’t bode well for an IPO. The market is smelling a stinker.
Get your popcorn ready for a mad scramble to salvage investments if indeed the shark has been jumped.
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#3I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition.
And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster.
It’s like they thought they had an unassailable monopoly and speedran to the lazy incumbent position, all in a matter of months.
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#4> The large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion has investors rushing to grab equity in the latter before it rises, according to Augment co-founder Adam Crawley.
Interesting, so there are a lot of people still eager to invest in valuations of well greater than a-quarter-trillion, but OpenAI's latest raise has sucked up all the oxygen for enthusiasm of that valuation going even higher.
Which could be a "dumb money" move ("competitor number lower, already-big-number is scary") or a "smart money" move ("Anthropic is gaining position-wise, and currently is lower valued, let's bet on the one we think is better positioned") or some mix of both.
OpenAI just raised a shit-ton so clearly there is plenty of money out there who don't think there's a bubble or even a blown opportunity there. But the wider community doesn't think they have the competition in the bag, while still being willing to invest in big-AI-cos at absolutely enormous valuations.
If local hardware/models get good enough to take 80%-90% of what people use subscriptions for today... hoo boy. Big-AI is a bet I wouldn't be confident placing billions on. Unless your horizon is more "wait for IPO or next raise or positive news, then get out ASAP" than "hold for 5+ years."
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#5tl;dr nobody wants OpenAI shares and the secondary market has completely dried up. “We literally couldn’t find anyone in our pool of hundreds of institutional investors to take these shares“ This doesn’t bode well for an IPO. The market is smelling a stinker. Get your popcorn ready for a mad scramble to salvage investments if indeed the shark has been jumped.
not to mention the drama that's followed the company from the very beginning. It think its getting to a point where the character issues can no longer be ignored bc it's directly affecting business
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#6Odd timing...Everything I've read about Claude the last several days suggests that its users are disappointed, even furious at what's happened to its performance.
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#7I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…
Sam lost the plot for me. He took too many interviews which led me to not trust him. Last straw came with him standing by Anthropic one day then throwing them under the bus the next. He showed little awareness on why that is problematic.
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#8tl;dr nobody wants OpenAI shares and the secondary market has completely dried up. “We literally couldn’t find anyone in our pool of hundreds of institutional investors to take these shares“ This doesn’t bode well for an IPO. The market is smelling a stinker. Get your popcorn ready for a mad scramble to salvage investments if indeed the shark has been jumped.
I think the IPO and subsequent quarterly earnings where they will be pressured by analysts will pop it all.
I was watching a recent Jensen Huang Q&A with analysts and it was essentially “just trust me bro”. They’re all interconnected - once there’s a correction for one player, all get affected.
Can’t wait to finally get this over with so we can finally move on.
The gap between hype and reality needs to be corrected.
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#9I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…
Coding assistants won't win this game. They sure will win the hearts of developers, but to scale you need mass adoption and products for which users want to pay substantially. OpenAI is falling behind in the small features in their chat and app offering and have failed to innovate in their expensive offerings.
Codex btw is getting very competitive. It is fast and no longer far behind.
Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
#10I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…
What kind of OI slop is this?
5.4 Extra high >> Opus 4.6