Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset • Hacker News Board

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#151

Post by ETH_start » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 10:39 AM UTC

whatever1 wrote: post #142

ETH_start wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US lead over the EU in per capita productivity has massively grown over the last 20 years. There's no indication of waning American power. America has produced 70 times more stock market wealth if you look only at companies created within the last 50 years than the EU. And this is not all paper wealth. If you look at technological sophistication, whether that's frontier AI models, leading-edge pharmaceutical drug…

Does Azure/AWS/Google/FB sell as well in China as well it does in the EU? They sell close to 0. Europe made a conscious decision to not limit the reach of the infinite margin US companies. The deal was we buy your fancy services and expensive war toys, but you keep us safe. America forgot its obligation. Hence the deal is off. Now VW is making war machines and Airbus is building AI infra.

Even if US companies only had the US market, they'd be massive — Google gets ~50% of its revenue from the US alone, Amazon over 60% from North America, and most other Big Tech is in that same range. The US market by itself is plenty huge. And the EU provides 20-30% of US Big Tech revenue. Even losing all of that (very unlikely even under protectionist policies), US tech companies would be doing well, with 70-80% of their current revenue.

Sure, full-blown protectionism everywhere would make the world including the US poorer (less specialization, less division of labor), but it would also harm EU exports, as the US is the EU's biggest importer, and moreover it wouldn't change the factors behind the growing US-EU gap. US-EU trade policies with each other are basically the same. The difference is internal, and mostly comes down to the US just not sabotaging the private sector as much.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#152

Post by Timon3 » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC

hax0ron3 wrote: post #86

unsnap_biceps wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really not. They're deporting less people than Biden did during the same time[1]. They're spending record amounts of money per person deported as well. I don't disagree that we should be deporting people faster, but this is not the way to accomplish that goal at all. Nor should we be building huge detention facilities. We should be making the process go smoother and faster, not holding people. [1] https://en.wik…

Even if Trump's approach is worse than Biden's, which I'm not sure of, that still does not mean it is bad for the country. Counting deportations alone does not count people who decide not to come at all. Also, note that I did not say that we should necessarily be deporting more people. I am actually pretty neutral on illegal immigration. But I am trying to address the question of what is good for the country, which i…

> Even if Trump's approach is worse than Biden's, which I'm not sure of, that still does not mean it is bad for the country.

But the discussion isn't about whether it's bad, but whether it's in the countries best interest. If you switch to a less effective & more damaging policy compared to your predecessor, it's not in the countries best interest, even if it's (supposedly) better than nothing.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#153

Post by mothballed » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 10:46 AM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #111

avidiax wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you really want to get rid of illegal immigrants, you don't need ICE doing sweeps. Just make them unemployable. Setup an effective employment eligibility system, and require that employers verify the workers in the system before any payment over $100. Collect biometrics from workers and verify against IRS records. Employers that flout this get fines of 10x wages paid, up to N% of revenue, and maybe jailtime for ow…

There's a better way than that. The way the US tax system actually works is incredibly misleading: 1) We pretend to have an income tax but then make it work like a consumption tax in practice. Ordinary people put earnings in excess of spending in a 401k and defer the tax until they want to spend the money. Rich people defer capital gains indefinitely until they want to spend the money. It's an income tax on paper but…

The tax code is inefficient on purpose. A simple uniform system is politically infeasible, due to the fact our political system relies on pretending to give special favors to every tailored interest group individually (making the tax code even bigger every time).

We arent at a loss of what to change to make it simpler/optimal. We're at a loss at how to make anyone proposing that not lose the election when everyone else is telling each group they'll lose their special carveous and how about I sweeten the deal some more.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#154

Post by j-bos » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 10:50 AM UTC

gpt5 wrote: post #130

yosefk wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While we're at it, when did central banks start to buy lots of gold and under which POTUS? Could it have something to do with the freezing of hundreds of billions of some sovereign assets?

There is something awfully bad happening to the internet, including Hacker News. It seems like rage-baiting, polarizing titles and vibe based comments are being upvoted, with no interest in the facts. For example, in this case: 1. The growth of the gold reserve in comparison to US Treasuries have very little to do with growth in gold acquisition, and has everything to do with gold more than doubling in price in a yea…

Thanks appreciate the broader context in this post. As to your meta comment, besides bots, I think a lot of people are facing a great deal of pain and fear. They're emotional and even in hn a critical mass has switched to reading and writing with their gut. Good vibe project, analyse the level of emotionality in comments over time, I'd bet it's gone vertical in the past few months.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#155

Post by skippyboxedhero » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:02 AM UTC

aloha2436 wrote: post #26

America was in practice running an empire that collected tribute from the rest of planet earth in exchange for entries in a database denominated in a currency they controlled and that was accepted everywhere. Really the only way it could go wrong is putting it under the control of someone who doesn't understand the kayfabe...

Not aware of what happened in the 70s then with Bretton Woods? Not aware of what happened pre-08? It has gone wrong multiple times before just for the US and the US exporting inflation is not good for either the US or the rest of the world.

As with NATO, I am not sure what the argument is...yes, other countries should take more of a role in their own defence...yes, other countries should take more of a role in their own economic governance/financial stability.

On this topic specifically though, I will also point out that whatever the faults of the US, no-one had a problem when Germany was exporting crippling levels of deflation (this is one of the main issues that wasn't solved after WW2 despite being identified by Keynes: deficit countries will be told they need to rebalance, but not surplus countries). Germany have solved that problem with catastrophically bad foreign policy destroying their economy (once again) but before this, they were the main source of global financial instability (China, to their credit, is probably one of the only countries ever to rebalance from surplus to deficit country...Germany has done this multiple times over the years and has blamed other countries every time).

Other countries using gold instead of US debt is good for both the US and those countries. Most of the "increase" has been due to gold rising in value and, fundamentally, it cannot solve the problem because the price cannot rise as much as it needs to but it should be part of a mix with SDRs and other securities.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#156

Post by throwaway290 » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:03 AM UTC

dartharva wrote: post #15

SilverElfin wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a self decapitation exactly. I think Trump, his family, his corporate donors, and other friends are all willing to sacrifice everyone else - including the lead America had - to make themselves rich and powerful. Every single decision to spend - defense, ICE contracts, AI, approvals of anticompetitive acquisitions, changes to regulations, etc - is making that circle richer at our expense. They don’t care if A…

Weakening your own domain to get powerful sounds clearly contradictory, yet there are so many examples of elites doing exactly that despite the fact that doing so must've required foresight and planning elaborate enough to not blind them from the consequences.

> Weakening your own domain to get powerful sounds clearly contradictory

No because it's relative. If people around you get weak then you get more powerful automatically. If you get more powerful and people around you also get more powerful then you are in the same situation.

So if power is what you want you destroy others at the same time as building your power. What trump is doing is logical. He isn't living in china or russia. he doesn't care if they get stronger. he cares if people around get weaker relative to him and cronies who are in on it. and that works

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#157

Post by lesuorac » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:03 AM UTC

BobbyJo wrote: post #55

ejoso wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say more

Being a reserve currency puts a gun to your economy's head. It creates an asymmetry where domestic production of material goods has to jump a gap created by favorable exchange rates in PPP terms. Its great for the day to day life style of your citizens, as other economy's do indeed pay tribute, in a sense, to their consumption of goods produced overseas. However, being paid to do nothing becomes a real problem when t…

But why?

If you just don't run a mega defict every year you can afford to use the interest other countries would have to pay you to borrow dollars to subsidize your own economy.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#158

Post by 9dev » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC

berdario wrote: post #148

IAmGraydon wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that he has done countless things that are harmful to the US and not a single thing that is in the country's best interests tells me all I need to know. Either he's aligned with an enemy or he just hates the country and wants to destroy it.

I think this is denialism of the profit that the USA extracts with its crimes. The most recent example include the profits from Venezuelan oil: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgn7p7g79wo https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/trump-administration-manda... That money is held in a US treasury account. In February the estimated price from the first 50 M barrels was $2.8bn... with the USA+Israel bombing of Iran, the pri…

> that's still 140 million $ of money flowing in, in perpetuity.

Oh hey, that's roughly enough to cover for Trump's new renovation plans!

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#159

Post by 9dev » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC

hax0ron3 wrote: post #75

Larrikin wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think that?

Illegal immigration brings masses of people from more corrupt, disordered, and perhaps lower average intelligence societies into the US in conditions that make it hard for even the ones who are capable of assimilation to assimilate. It also constitutes a massive flouting of the law for the benefit of business, which sets a bad precedent and lowers public trust in institutions. It also contributes to rising racial ten…

> perhaps lower average intelligence societies

This is nothing but racism. Intelligence is distributed evenly across humanity.

On an unrelated note, how high do you think the rate of American citizens with literacy level 1 is?

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#160

Post by Ekaros » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:19 AM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #101

andsoitis wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gold has always been stable, because it is physically limited. Incorrect. Physical scarcity matters, but it’s not the main driver. Gold’s price is far more sensitive to interest rates, dollar strength, sentiment and fear, speculative flows. The stability it’s historically shown was mostly the result of fixed monetary systems, and those are long gone.

>Incorrect. Physical scarcity matters, but it’s not the main driver. Gold’s price is far more sensitive to interest rates, dollar strength, sentiment and fear, speculative flows. Those are only relevant on a shorter timescale; on a long timescale gold's held its value extremely well. The price of a loaf of bread in gold now is still similar to what it was in the Roman Empire 2000 years ago.

That comparison actually sounds horrible for gold... By all accounts we should be extremely more efficient in manufacturing loafs of bread. So a same amount of gold should buy lot more bread now than 2000 years ago.

So if you really think about it. If you held gold for 2000 years. You would only reach same standard of living as 2000 years ago...