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Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

blog.danieldavies.com

51–60 of 228 posts

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#51
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me the danger of AI is that it enables the surveillance state through facial recognition and the instantaneous aggregation of all my data. For "national security" reasons, I may be detained and denied of my rights if Palantir hallucinates. Who do I sue if Palantir decides I am an illegal?

Another danger I see is job loss. Who wants a world where the wealthy control AI and completely destroy the middle class.

The wealthy.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#52

Interesting that this quote was initially about stock options at tech companies. It turned out that stock options did become nearly universal in tech compensation, and companies that granted them outcompeted companies that did not. So the management that was ostensibly “doing a massive blag at the expense of shareholders” wasn’t really, time vindicated their practices and things like option backdating and not treatin…

> Interesting that this quote was initially about stock options at tech companies. It turned out that stock options did become nearly universal in tech compensation, and companies that granted them outcompeted companies that did not. So the management that was ostensibly “doing a massive blag at the expense of shareholders” wasn’t really, time vindicated their practices and things like option backdating and not treating them as an expense weren’t even really necessary, but it took a few years. It wasn’t obvious in 2002 that this is how it would play out.

I happen to have read probably everything that Warren Buffet wrote on this subject, and in my opinion your take is confused at best.

First, you say that “stock options did become nearly universal“. No, they were already nearly universal at the time that this conversation was happening. I remember that Warren Buffet was quoting, going by memory, something like all but 3 out of 500 S&P DONT companies do it, or nasdaq or whatever index he was talking about. The fact that almost all companies do it doesnt mean its the right thing to do and if almost no company did it, Buffet wouldnt be complaining about it.

Second, you say “companies that granted them outcompeted companies that did not“. I literally have no idea how you came to this conclusion since, like I said, at the time this conversation was going on almost all company did it. Not because the companies that didnt do it died out, but because companies that didnt do it switching into doing it.

Third, and most important, I believe you misunderstand what the conversation is about. Expensing stock options is not a competitive advantage. Granting stock options might be, the rationale that paying management and staff more attracts the best people is an argument worth having. But the conversation isnt about whether its a good idea to grant stock options, the conversation is about which entry you should put your stock options when preparing financial statements. The author says clearly that this is about accounting, but you missed that. Theres no competitive advantage in doing one way or the other. The reason why Buffet complains about them is that A) it makes harder to discern from financial statements how much staff is costing the shareholders, not that its a competitive advangage or disadvantage, and B) if theres a cost that you need to pay in order to run the business, thats called an expense, and by your own argument you need stock options to run the business, therefore those are expenses and thats how they should be labeled in the income statement. The argument of companies doing it is that “earnings“ is bigger if there are things which are expenses but you dont call them that. Its literally saying that pnl = P - L but you know what, its bigger if I just report the P and hide the L.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#54
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you just reinforced the articles point. Coal power needs lots of lies to justify it, as per your own statement. That is in fact because coal energy is a terrible idea . It has 0 upsides compared to renewable alternatives, and is on the whole worse than even other non-renewable alternatives. If you have to lie to make it sound good, that's probably because it isn't actually good

I think we’re still talking past each other. I’m not arguing that any specific idea is good. My point is just that public acceptance itself isn’t reliable evidence either way: ideas can gain support (or fail) for reasons other than their actual merit.

That's true. The inversion of the quote is that good ideas require lies to lose public acceptance.

Well, there's a lot of lies flying around lately. So it happens.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#55
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me the danger of AI is that it enables the surveillance state through facial recognition and the instantaneous aggregation of all my data. For "national security" reasons, I may be detained and denied of my rights if Palantir hallucinates. Who do I sue if Palantir decides I am an illegal?

Human law enforcement hallucinates all the time. This is a bit like a poor argument against self driving.

"Computer says no", look it up.

Cars measure success by not hitting things.

Cops measure success by number of people they arrest. Note, not the number of people found guilty, that's the prosecutor.

Cops will gladly use a hallucinating computer system to beat the absolute fuck out of you with qualified immunity.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#56
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you can't do the Nazi Germany thing these days. I mean... disgust aside, it kinda failed. But you can spy on people under "national security" while keeping them feeling happy enough. And that arrangement can last 1000 years.

Still not convinced that AI is offering anything new here. Especially when the statistics you'd reach for are often like 100 years old or more. Bayes theorem is older than the united states. I think among lay people there is a lot of conflation between AI and statistics, and also a lack of understanding of the state of that field and how mature it is. Nazi Germany of course heavily used statistical modeling and even…

This your point of view is kind of silly when you think about it. They used the modeling going after jews, but going after the people that were German but hid jews was much more difficult. With moden AI/statistical modeling they'd take all those people too.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#57
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I’m kind of conflicted and confused faced with this message on this site, especially with the content of the post. Can someone explain why I’m feeling annoyed?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#59
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me the danger of AI is that it enables the surveillance state through facial recognition and the instantaneous aggregation of all my data. For "national security" reasons, I may be detained and denied of my rights if Palantir hallucinates. Who do I sue if Palantir decides I am an illegal?

The thing is a government never needed technology to be authoritarian. The government today already has all the tools to ruin your life. It had them in 1940. It had them in 1840 and it had them in the year 40 as well. And that tool is known as the monopoly on violence. It can be wielded in many ways good and bad.

You're confusing autocratic with authoritarian. Total war reached its most recent zenith in the 20th century. If governments have always been able to control people to the same degree, why was not until Napoleon that we saw the beginnings of nationalism? I say this rhetorically, as it is quite obvious that it was technology and industrialization. When we look at ancient Empires and see their territory on a map it would be much more accurate to only highlight population centers not the entirety of the land. Illiterate farmers, who made up the majority of the world, resided in small towns and villages and their daily lives were largely unaffected by conquerors.
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