Earlier quoted context omitted.
> They are persisting with HLS though Through what? What experimental data do you think renders this path foolish? Because I’m seeing a rapid-reuse heavy lift system with a fuel depot being built.
I dunno, the fact that nobody can say how many fuel launches a moonshot is going to take, but at least 12? And that the lunar orbit chosen due to available energy makes rapid extraction impossible?
If they get less performance or more mission payload, they can add tanker launches. If they get more performance or less mission payload, they can remove tanker launches.
People ran into "the design is 10% heavier than planned for unexpected engineering reasons and now we have to make hard choices" on space missions far less complex than a literal Moon landing. SpaceX has externalized the "hard choices" into the tanker count, pre-emptively.
The lunar orbit of Artemis is defined mainly by SLS/Orion's performance, or lack of thereof. The specific NRHO was a Gateway choice, and might now be dead alongside it, but by itself, Orion can't get to low Lunar orbit. Which drives some peculiar design choices.