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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#961

Post by munificent »

randomNumber7 wrote: post #312
munificent wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I want to see the United States of America and its very loud citizens get a taste of humble pie in this self-inflicted crisis of idiocy with global ramifications. I sympathize with the sentiment even though I am American. The problem with this is that Americans are not a uniform cohort. The people who deserve to eat humble pie in this scenario are neck deep in propaganda and their own inflated egos and will never l…

> The people who deserve to eat humble pie in this scenario are neck deep in propaganda and their own inflated egos and will never learn any rational lesson from this They will turn on someone or something they can blame.

100%. Scapegoating is a key pillar in the authoritarian playbook.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#962

Post by jmpman »

Synaesthesia wrote: post #514
jmpman wrote: post #496

I don't understand why Trump doesn't simply mine the strait of Hormuz, and make a simple statement - "no ships get through unless all ships get through". Sure, it would disrupt the world oil supply, but seems hard for Iran to counter.

Because as the article explains the US ships cannot even approach the straits due to the threat of anti-ship missiles.

You can mine from the air.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#963

Post by kjellsbells »

torlok wrote: post #808
kjellsbells wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no shortage of national security and military analysis talent in the US. There is a gigantic shortage of intestinal fortitude in the politicians. The Army tried reducing the sizeof their tank force, and had to back down after screams from Congress because it would have meant job losses in some representative's district. The US poured money into the strike fighter and littoral ship projects, despite the brass…

Sorry, are you suggesting that the US top brass wants less of something, but the politicians won't let them? That the US top brass would reform and modernize the military if only politicians wouldn't get in the way? Is this April Fools?

No,I'm not suggesting that at all. Some of the brass love spending the taxpayers money on new toys. I'm saying that one control mechanism for them not being able to do that, namely, an effective Congress, is totally AWOL and captured in that regard. And re: the policy/planning types that work with them, the good ones have been defenestrated in the last 15 months or are not in a position to do anything like their best work if there is any risk it will differ from the administration's preconceived worldview.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#964

Post by voganmother42 »

jeroenhd wrote: post #591
recursivedoubts wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a strong majority of the united states citizens are against the war, despite a full court propaganda press against the right and a no-kings distraction op against the left https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/03/25/americans-br... don't confuse american citizens with the bought-and-paid talking & tweeting heads we are forced to live with

Every time someone criticises the USA for its atrocities and its ridiculous foreign policies I see this argument, that supposedly most people are supposedly against whatever bad thing is happening right now. Yet, Americans elected Trump, twice even, and gave his party control over the other branches of government at the same time. We'll see at the midterms how much the American populace really disagrees with what the…

If there is a midterm election

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#965

Post by magicalhippo »

notepad0x90 wrote: post #956
magicalhippo wrote: post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran can threaten just about any US interest in the region but not the US homeland itself. Much thanks to the impenetrable Mexico border, through which no foul thing has ever slipped past... /s Iran can very much sneak drones into the US and do an Operation Spiderweb-style attack. Won't happen next week, but Russia thought they were done in 3 weeks.

Are you claiming Iran has the logistics and capability to constantly deliver drone attacks against the US homeland persistently? Or were you thinking of more like a one time flurry of drones? I mean, even if Mexico joined the war and Iran managed to provide them with unlimited drones, what changes? US border cities will be affected and there will be civlian casualties. Do you know why Ukraine is avoiding attacking ci…

> Or were you thinking of more like a one time flurry of drones?

No continuously, but enough to do serious damage to important assets.

Not sure if they'd go for civilian assets, new leader is supposedly more extreme than the previous (funny how that's often the case), but so far their responses seems measured.

But if they could take out a bunch of B-52s and whatnot sitting parked in the open, like that drone scare last year...

If they did want to go after civilians, they could however easily do a 9/11 level of attack against airlines or similar targets that are not prepared.

This is, as you allude to, likely not a good move for Iran. However, Israel said they'd prefer a failed state over the current regime, and in that case I could see some fanatics thinking that's a play to make, not unlike 9/11. So if Israel continues without direct US support, and the regime falls...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#966

Post by s1artibartfast »

freefaler wrote: post #134
s1artibartfast wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's very little to be learned from Ukrainian technology. They dont have unprecedented servos, software, or manufacturing. What they have is a dire situation that drives efficient and pragmatic proucurement. This is much harder to export.

They have a working operational system and battle tested tactics, not only procurement. It's not the rifle that distinguishes the special forces, but how it's used. They built a network centric warefare with starlink and cheap android tablets down to the drone teams in the field. They built a network of cheap acousting sensors (old phones) as passive sensors and using ML models to find the drones cheaply and increase…

That is all orthogonal to my point. It is fit for purpose and effective, but isn't cold fusion.

US manufacturers dont make cheap effective solutions because there is little profit in it when they can upsell expensive options.

The US has little motivation to optimize.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#967

Post by don_esteban »

notepad0x90 wrote: post #954
don_esteban wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ufff, just to be clear: Are you saying that invading and conquering Iran won't be much more difficult than doing the same for Afghanistan? I want some of the good stuff you are using!

I never claimed that, I only made the argument that the terrain and population won't be the hard part. Iran is well prepared for this invasion, so it will be harder, but the US military is also the most well-practiced, well-armed, and well-funded military in history, so harder is kind of relative. I doubt it will take a year, and I don't think it will take a month, that's as accurate as I think my educated guess can…

Israel's army is on par with US, if not better, regarding practice and armament. Have a look at the kind of problems they have in South Lebanon. Against supposedly destroyed Hezbollah.

Now imagine the same, just on a much larger scale...

The new technology (drones) changes the game quite a bit.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#968

Post by rbanffy »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #950
rbanffy wrote: post #805

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Countermeasures can take out some attacking missiles, but not all of them. Exactly. On asymmetrical warfare, one side needs to get lucky all the time while the other only needs to get lucky once. > Mass-produced drones today are a simple airframe, a lawnmower engine, and the smarts of a cell phone. Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran. Their cheap and simple nature allows them to ea…

Cuba would be foolish not to “neutralize” the US? You think Cuba has the capability to destroy the US Navy? Where did you learn all this?

Attacking a navy has proven easy and cheap. Right now they lack any significant military capability but that will not last forever.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#969

Post by MrSkelter »

It has been obvious for decades that Americas beloved, insanely expensive, carrier groups were weapons of the past.

Every time this is mentioned the comments fill with naval fans pointing out that in fact carrier groups are invulnerable due to layered defenses and air support.

Whenever vulnerabilities are demonstrated, most famously by Sweden's cheap, quiet, diesel electric subs ability to sink carriers during war games so effectively the US begged to borrow one for training, the fans just return to their talking points.

YouTube has a library of videos like this.

Yet reality bites. The truth is the most aggressive administration in living memory is afraid to sail into troubled waters for fear of losing materiel.

The age of carriers is over. Dinosaurs in an age of mammals.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#970

Post by integricho »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #917
integricho wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is so rich hearing that America can attack anybody, but godforbid an attack on the "homeland" is an unforgivable act that will invoke nukes immediately.

I don’t know what rich means here or why homeland is in scare quotes but that’s the way it is. An attack on the US will be met with unrelenting and unstoppable force. I see a lot of delusional posts that seem to indicate people think the US military capability is weak but I assure you it is not. Also, you do realize the Iranian people were pleading for the US to attack. All these people holding vigils are fir the Aya…

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