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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

241–250 of 592 posts

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Containers are not Virtual Machines. 1GB cannot run a lot of server software. If stuff is written in .NET, Java or JavaScript. Hosting a non-trivial web app can use several hundred megabytes of memory.

Only Java qualifies under your arbitrary rules, and even then I imagine it's trying to catch up to .NET (after all.. blu-ray players execute Java).. which can run on embedded systems https://nanoframework.net/

I listed some popular languages that web applications I happened to run dockerised are using. They are not arbitrary.

If you run normal web applications they often take many hundreds of megabytes if they are built with some popular languages that I happened to list off the top of my head. That is a fact.

Comparing that to cut down frameworks with many limitations meant for embedded devices isn't a valid comparison.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#244

There are ups and downs in the prices of components. Often people forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. Video cards just were not available in the UK and afterwards (every supplier had long lead times) and are still relatively expensive (at least there are now lower priced options). Raspberry Pis you couldn't get hold of and many people (Jeff Included) was using a website…

I remember that literally everything, including basic necessities like food and housing jumped 30% higher overnight and never really returned to pre COVID prices. It erased about a decade worth of wage increases for most people.

I think the doomers are probably anticipating another round of that and they're probably right.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultra clean rooms with massive air handling systems can't recapture all their helium? Or is this just a temporary thing based on where processing is located?

Helium is actually pretty hard to keep ahold of, being a very light and small noble gas. It can diffuse through a surprising amount of materials, flow through far smaller cracks than you would expect, and is quite hard to filter out of a mixture of gases.

Also superfluid helium (a big chunk of helium used for refrigeration like in e.g. the LHC) has the weird property of flowing the same speed through a tiny hole as a large one and coating everything with a molecular coating. Superfluid helium is basically a bose einstein condensate but macro-scale, totally counterintuitive. Essentially a thermal superconductor. Zero viscosity.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#246

Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse. I feel like for the first time in our lives we might have seen peak technology for the next few years. Everyone is going to have to make do instead of depending on ever increasing performance.

> Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse.

I believe helium, although important constitutes a small percent of the cost of semiconductors, so its effect on price will be less severe. It will be more noticeable in other uses of helium though - party balloons could get very expensive etc.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I categorized these situations the way you do, and I said what I'm saying, I would be a pedant. But I see things a different way. The logic I'm actually using is not pedantic. You calling me disingenuous over this is painful to look at. Get out of your own head for a second. We're using different premises, and we're reaching different conclusions because of that. My logic is fine, and your logic is fine.

> If I categorized these situations the way you do, and I said what I'm saying, I would be a pedant. I am not categorising any situation. The vast majority of people would omit unreasonable options. I could buy a racing bike that is £5000 new, for £200 when I live in London (back in 2000s). The bike would most likely would have been stolen. So technically I can buy a £5000 bike for £200. But most people wouldn't want…

> You started the conversation claiming I was outright lying. Then when I clarified to you what I meant you continued claiming I was lying/misstating. That is really annoying.

I said "If you were offering anywhere near 6x MSRP" I didn't believe you, and it turns out you weren't offering 6x MSRP. So I wasn't calling you a liar.

> If you could have just said "okay that is fair, while you might have been doing X and Y, I can understand why you didn't want to do that". That would have been fine. But that didn't happen.

So if I had explicitly said "I think it's fine you didn't use ebay" that would have fixed everything? Because I never argued about your personal choice, I argued about you calling ebay "unreasonable".

Well for the record, I was going to say something like that in response to "If you are going to be a smart arse, I will modify my statement to say "I could not get a card from a reputable online store as they were all out of stock and did not wish to risk buying from a less reputable one"."

But then I saw you had called me "hyper-pedantic" and I focused on rebuffing that attack instead.

Edit: And it doesn't help that you never actually did that modification, and instead keep insisting that what you originally said means the same thing.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> therefore there is zero incentive to even bother. I hear you, and this is a real problem. But it's kind of depressing to need incentives to care about the quality of your work.

There is something very wrong now with how companies operate in general. You get beaten down eventually. Late last year. I spent like an hour going through why a PR (and this developer's work) in general wasn't acceptable to my superior. He said to me that he was perfectly fine with someone not understanding basic language features (after 6 months using the langauge). He then merged it. It didn't work (as I had warne…

> There is something very wrong now with how companies operate in general.

Some companies. A lot of companies, maybe. But far from all of them.

I've done a lot of consulting work, which means I've done short stints at a lot of different places over the years. Some were absolute stinkers - like you describe. But I've also worked with some wonderful people and on some great, high performance teams. I understand that its not so easy when you're 43 (and maybe, with kids). But you don't need to stay in a job like this. Its not worth getting ground down like this. Its bad for your health. And its horrible for your career in the long run.

Move to a smaller company. Or sniff around and find a better team within your existing org. In the words of my favorite poet: The world is made to be free in. Give up all the other worlds except the one to which you belong.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#250
post #165

In the Dwarkesh podcast with Semi-Analysis's Dylan Patel they forecast the phone market will shrink by 50% this year because of RAM prices: But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1…

Smartphones are widely available on the used goods market though, perhaps even more so than second-hand SBCs or old PCs. The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.

> The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.

With the 4-7 year support window on Android? Maybe that's why Google is trying to kill off Graphene et al.

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