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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

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Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#221

Post by JollySharp0 »

andrekandre wrote: post #212
JollySharp0 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone will come in when the price goes up enough. It will take time, but it will happen. What people are complaining about is that the time for this to happen is too long. Oh look, there is a player coming into the market it seems: https://economy.ac/news/2026/02/202602288291#:~:text=If%20eq... EDIT: In fact many other chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices. Which confirms exactly…

> chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices a good sign, but im guessing at some point these companies are gonna be tariffed heavily...

Maybe they will. However people often claim that there won't be anyone to want to enter the market to take advantage of high DRAM prices when if they spent two minutes doing a web search they would discover that isn't true.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#222

Post by ValidateKorea »

Living in Korea where Samsung and SK Hynix are headquartered, the DRAM pricing situation is interesting from the supply side too. Both companies have been aggressively shifting capacity toward HBM for AI/datacenter use because the margins are 3-5x higher than commodity DDR5. The hobbyist SBC market is essentially collateral damage of the AI boom — manufacturers are rationally choosing to serve the more profitable customer.

Unfortunately I don't see this reversing until HBM demand plateaus or new fabs come online, which is 2-3 years out at minimum.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#223

Post by jmyeet »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #204
nl wrote: post #165

In the Dwarkesh podcast with Semi-Analysis's Dylan Patel they forecast the phone market will shrink by 50% this year because of RAM prices: But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1…

My iPhone 11 hanging on for dear life…

I had an iPhone 11. It was a good phone. It started giving up in early 2024. I held on with poor battery life until the new iPhones that year and bought the 16 Plus. I'm glad actually because they're discontinued the Plus models, annoyingly.

But I'm glad I don't need to upgrade for the next couple of years. I honestly want to get 4-5 years out of any phone going forward. There's basically no difference between models 12 months apart.

I can see the prices going up this year. IT's already happened to the PS5, which is bascially unheard of.

It really sucks more because the reason for it--AI--is just so godawful and pointless.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#224

Post by CyberDildonics »

jonathantf2 wrote: post #7

DRAM pricing is killing the everything market. We just had a vendor uplift our quote 50% per unit for some machines because of a mix of memory + supply chain issues.

We just had a vendor uplift our quote 50% per unit

Good thing they didn't increase it.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#226

Post by adjejmxbdjdn »

I know this is a pipe dream (govt’s of the world working together to benefit their citizens instead of blowing some other country’s citizens up!) but if we aren’t gonna regulate AI collectively to ensure we are developing it responsibly, the least we can do is ensure AI is given bottom billing when it comes to all the resources it’s sucking up. Energy, components, engineers, construction, etc.

My preference is responsible AI development which prevents it from turning into an arms race but that’s clearly not on the cards, especially with current leadership.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#227

Post by geerlingguy »

esskay wrote: post #61

The SBC markets been on life support for a long time. Youtubers making videos about them don't seem to grasp that and keep pumping out reviews and projects like its still 2019. The pi specifically has plummeted in popularity and for most use cases they just aren't a cost effective option when second hand micro pcs are dirt cheap and vastly more capable.

An SBC is a great gateway to embedded development. There are some industrial PCs in that niche, but generally mini/client PCs don't fill that need.

For a couple years, a Pi was a decent value as a cheaper small desktop replacement.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#228

Post by geerlingguy »

megous wrote: post #103

SBCs are not just RPis. Other brands can still be bought cheaper.

A few, until their current stocks run out. Orange Pi already increased prices (their boards are similar price or more expensive than equivalent Pi's now), and Radxa seems to just stop selling certain models (at least in NA) once they run out of stock.

Arduino has one of the cheapest 4GB boards now, but I wonder if it's just because they made a ton and the demand for their strange board has been low?

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#230

Post by attentive »

andrewstuart2 wrote: post #105
bashtoni wrote: post #95

Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse. I feel like for the first time in our lives we might have seen peak technology for the next few years. Everyone is going to have to make do instead of depending on ever increasing performance.

Finally, good efficient code is going to get its moment to shine! Which will totally happen because it's not like 80% of the industry is vibe coding everything, right?

just do vibe performance optimization (I am not even kidding)
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