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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

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Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#91

Post by throwaway85825 »

Permit wrote: post #16
einpoklum wrote: post #12

The title should say: "Collusion of large corporations promoting LLMs with RAM manufacturers is killing the hobbyist SBC market (and bankrupting anybody trying to get a PC or laptop)". Because we all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers. Same as a lot of the electricity in some parts of the world, BTW.

Can you elaborate on the collusion aspect? Is the implication that OpenAI and Anthropic are coordinating their purchases in such a way that they target the hobbyist market? What’s the collusion angle here?

OpenAI signed letters of intent for 40% of the DRAM supply because they have no moat and want to starve their competition.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#92

Post by roughly »

We're somehow in a race between LLMs curing cancer, destroying the planet by "You're right to be mad, I shouldn't have issued those launch codes, it's even in my Claude.md file, I'm sorry," and rendering modern technological civilization uneconomical. I know this is statistically the best time in history to live, but lord, I could use a vacation.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#93

Post by whynotmaybe »

jokoon wrote: post #6

it's probably time to call those old retired programmers to ask them how to reduce software memory footprint or to teach that again

I can save everyone a few Mb of memory now :

1. Check that you really need a SaaS SPA to solve the communication issues between your team members.

2. HTML and css should be enough for 99% of corporate websites.

3. Resize the images on your websites, they're too big.

4. Use teams in the browser, not as stand-alone app.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#94

Post by mhb »

duskwuff wrote: post #86
elwebmaster wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to imagine, it will hallucinate you a slop with full confidence every time.

I've already seen at least one person who was pretty sure that the preprint paper they co-authored with AI (read: AI wrote for them) was going to cure cancer and make them billions of dollars. There was only one problem. The paper jumped straight from "this paper will show how our new treatment could cures cancer forever" to "as you can see, these results clearly show that our treatment cures cancer" - with neither a…

So QED then, I guess.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#96

Post by nostrademons »

jokoon wrote: post #6

it's probably time to call those old retired programmers to ask them how to reduce software memory footprint or to teach that again

This is happening, sort of. All the big tech companies have major initiatives going to reduce RAM usage.

The old graybeards who know how to optimize efficiency may not work for them anymore, though.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#97

Post by ttul »

JollySharp0 wrote: post #41

There are ups and downs in the prices of components. Often people forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. Video cards just were not available in the UK and afterwards (every supplier had long lead times) and are still relatively expensive (at least there are now lower priced options). Raspberry Pis you couldn't get hold of and many people (Jeff Included) was using a website…

This time is different. https://ca.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.60...

The price for a couple of 32GB sticks is now over $1200 after being stable at about $200 for several years until last September. That's not a blip; that's 6-fold hike and there is no sign it is slowing down any time soon.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#98

Post by JollySharp0 »

dwattttt wrote: post #66
JollySharp0 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doomers IMO are just click baiting. There is a saying that is often trotted out my economists "That the cure for high prices, is high prices". There is a consumer market and business need for DRAM outside of AI. Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to. It just going to take a bit of time for this to happen. My equipment is going to be fine for another few years. So I am going to just hang tight a…

> Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to And those uses which fall short of the new threshold, e.g. hobbyist SBCs, slowly fall away.

In reality were they going to survive anyway? I would wager likely not.

Raspberry PI is the defacto standard for SBCs. Almost all the other SBCs had significant problems usually around software support and also third party support e.g. Hats, cases etc.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#100

Post by pixl97 »

bashtoni wrote: post #95

Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse. I feel like for the first time in our lives we might have seen peak technology for the next few years. Everyone is going to have to make do instead of depending on ever increasing performance.

I expect my 5 year old desktop will last a lot longer, but start worrying about the bathtub curve.
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