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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#91

Post by nh23423fefe »

barumrho wrote: post #31
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

Do the ETF managers have no discretion in determining when to buy? I was under the impression that they usually handle these changes to indices gradually even under normal circumstances.

of course they do. read any prospectus for a FUND and funds track INDEXES using rules. inclusion in some index doesn't hamstring anyone.

blind purchases are not going to happen. people assume passive indexing is brainless, but it isnt.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#93

Post by WarmWash »

torginus wrote: post #79
dang wrote: post #136

[stub for offtopicness] [All: please don't post unsubstantive comments to HN. You don't have to like $Company or $Person, but when the banned accounts are posting more thoughtfully than the rest, that's... bad.]

Does this mean that before june SpaceX will do something highly noteworthy, to justify the IPO price?

Elon will announce roborockets that pick you up and fly you to Mars in under 12 hours while you hypersleep in the ExaShip. Production starts definitely next year.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#94

Post by bobsomers »

indoordin0saur wrote: post #49
rvz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are going IPO close to Elon's birthday (26th or 29th June) aren't they? Like they did with Tesla. But as soon as they IPO, that's a signal to head for the exit before it all collapses again.

TSLA is up 300x from what it IPO'd at

But it was also flat last year and the financials are atrociously bad. Reality is catching up.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#95

Post by morepork »

lokar wrote: post #80
saalweachter wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only NASDAQ so far; S&P 500 is apparently "reviewing its rules" but hasn't changed them yet. So you've got a full year to wait on that index fund, assuming they don't cave.

Also, would individual funds that track the S&P have left themselves some wiggle room to delay this if they wanted?

I am not an expert, but my understanding is most funds don't change allocations immediately, but it would be part of normal rebalancing, e.g. VOO and other indexes that track the S&P500 do it quarterly

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#96

Post by dmoy »

lokar wrote: post #83
bryanlarsen wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flaw is the limited float. Indexes will be forced to buy a huge number of shares which don't exist, driving up the price. For general investors if this is going to eventually happen, the earlier the indexes buy in the better. Otherwise more sophisticated investors will buy ahead of the indexes and grab the profit.

if they weighted (fully) by float (perhaps the average float from the trailing 90 days to the re-balance) it would not be as easy to game. The Nasdaq is accounting for float, but not completely.

Aren't basically all the huge serious index funds float weighted?

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#97

Post by lotsofpulp »

mosura wrote: post #40
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

Ever since SNAP the whole IPO show has been a transparent scam to game the index funds. The market simply doesn’t have enough people actively investing because it rewards mass stupidity over generating meaningful returns.

Based on the list of businesses at the top, the stock market seems like it rewards profit margin and profits, by businesses that sell meaningful products and services.

https://companiesmarketcap.com

Can you provide an example of any of the businesses on that are on that list due to "mass stupidity"? They all seem to operate factories, employ many highly qualified people, and make a material difference in many or even most people's lives around the world.

Meanwhile, SNAP has returned -14.98% per year to its shareholders since it IPO'd (Jun 3 2017), and at an $8.27B market cap, it makes up a negligible portion of any broad market index fund, so not sure how SNAP's shareholders have been rewarded by mass stupidity, especially given that the founders still own half of the business. They would have been far better off liquidating their shares and investing in SP500.

https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/?ticker=SNAP

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#98

Post by lokar »

dmoy wrote: post #96
lokar wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if they weighted (fully) by float (perhaps the average float from the trailing 90 days to the re-balance) it would not be as easy to game. The Nasdaq is accounting for float, but not completely.

Aren't basically all the huge serious index funds float weighted?

Matt Levine wrote (uh, yesterday?) that the Nasdaq 100 was adding it (not a full linear weighting....) right now to accommodate this scam.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#99

Post by richbell »

amoss wrote: post #81
Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The speaker seems to be generated by AI This is Patrick Boyle, he's not AI generated? Why did you feel like the speaker is AI generated?

I've watched Patrick's videos for enough years that I know he is not, but I still wonder from time to time. His voice is incredibly flat and uniform, he always uses fake backgrounds and there is extremely high use of jump cuts in his edits.

I suspect that he at least uses AI for scripts. He tends to repeat the same thing worded slightly differently a few times.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#100

Post by pstuart »

nxm wrote: post #89
moogly wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think this will be different from Tesla?

[flagged]

blah blah irrational blah blah solvent

It's still obscenely overpriced.

edit: to nxm -- the blah blah was about it being a default response, not to trivialize your comment.

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