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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#821

Post by chii »

integricho wrote: post #535
asa400 wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

It is so rich hearing that America can attack anybody, but godforbid an attack on the "homeland" is an unforgivable act that will invoke nukes immediately.

that is what it means to be a superpower.

Don't be naive and think that there's natural justice and the world is fair.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#822

Post by dlisboa »

rustyhancock wrote: post #238
tim333 wrote: post #225

>The era of carrier-dominated airpower is fading, as cheap, unmanned anti-ship weapons reshape naval warfare, whether US planners are ready for it or not. is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. Also straits being closed to shipping by whatever power co…

I think the point being made is that before Iranian drone doctrine (they were the originators of the long range drones, the FPV drones and sea drone which have dominated the Ukraine way too). A US CSG could simply sit in the Hormuz strait shoot down any incoming missiles and keep it open. Right now the US has 3 CSG in the middle east and nearly 50000 troops. After weeks of intensive bombing the strait remains closed…

> A US CSG could simply sit in the Hormuz strait shoot down any incoming missiles and keep it open.

They can't even do that in their own bases. Most of US defenses have been severely overestimated due to propaganda. They hadn't been tested and when they were they've shown themselves lacking.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#823

Post by polski-g »

senordevnyc wrote: post #748
matheusmoreira wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how nukes work. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the world is divided into haves and have-nots. Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. The USA has been attacked before but it has never been invaded and forced to fight a war on its own soil against foreign enemies. It's possible that they unconsciously believe war is something they bring to others, nev…

Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. Ukraine begs to differ.

The US has allegedly said they will retaliate with nuclear strikes on Russia if Russia uses nuclear strikes on Ukraine.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#824

Post by malfist »

tda wrote: post #765
zimpenfish wrote: post #648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. According to [0], in 2025 Iran had 86M people. Ukraine had 29M (~33%), Germany (highest in Europe) had 83M (~96%, uh?), Iraq had 46M (~53%), and Russia had 146M (~168% / ~59% reversed). Wildly, wildly wrong about Germany but not too far off the rest[1]. [0] https://en.wiki…

I think the comparisons were referring to land area, but I agree this is not that clear from from the comment

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq

Sure, they're talking multiples of land area.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#825

Post by enaaem »

ACCount37 wrote: post #686
Balgair wrote: post #113

In chapter 11 of All Quiet on the Western Front Paul and his unit find an abandoned food cache in the middle of no mans land. Instead of secreting away the food back to their lines where they will have to share it, they decide to just cook and eat it right then and there. But a spotter plane from the allies sees the smoke and then begins shelling their position. Cue a terrifying, if hilarious, scene where the soldier…

Ukrainian war is the way it is because neither side has a decisive advantage in air. There's barely any CAS - there are, however, lightweight drones. If Iran were to become a major ground war, one of the sides would have air dominance, and we know which one. How that would change things remains to be seen. But it wouldn't be the same exact trench war, that's certain enough.

Americans do not have the stomach to eat losses like Russia does. This is not een existential war for America. Having daily drone footage of American soldiers getting their face blown off won't do well at home. Casualties will be much higher than Iraq and Afghanistan.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#826

Post by chii »

bambax wrote: post #768
matheusmoreira wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how nukes work. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the world is divided into haves and have-nots. Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. The USA has been attacked before but it has never been invaded and forced to fight a war on its own soil against foreign enemies. It's possible that they unconsciously believe war is something they bring to others, nev…

> the world is divided into haves and have-nots Yes and the most important lesson of recent history is for have-nots to become haves ASAP.

and that is why as one of the haves (by virtue of you being on this website), it is important to prevent any have-nots from getting nukes.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#827

Post by bparsons »

People don't seem to understand the level of strategic defeat that the US is facing. Not only is the strait closed, but the US Navy has been completely locked out of the Gulf. They do not have a single ship operating there. They cannot service their coastal bases, which now sit empty. The situation is completely unprecedented.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#828

Post by mdni007 »

b112 wrote: post #572
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this.…

I doubt this admin is playing 4d chess with Iran. The more likely scenario is that Trump was given all information about Iran and was given several plans for a more indirect way to deal with them but he simply did not listen. He'd rather listen to lies fed to him by Netanyahu then his own staff.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#829

Post by Axsuul »

shiroiuma wrote: post #442
jandrewrogers wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheap drones are pretty useless against large naval vessels. Making a dent in those ships requires a heavy, specialized penetrating warheads. And even then you'll need to score several hits. Just the warhead alone on a standard anti-ship weapon weighs more than an entire Shahed-136 drone.

I disagree: lots of cheap drones would be extremely effective against an aircraft carrier. They don't need to sink the ship; they just need to damage the jets or disrupt operations on the flight deck. Even a small drone is a serious threat to a jet. How can a carrier defend against a drone swarm? They only have so much ammunition for those CWIS guns, and defending against the swarm will probably cost a lot more than…

Aircraft carriers are part of a strike group so the other ships would be responsible for defending it.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#830

Post by mdni007 »

mathgradthrow wrote: post #467
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

You think the pentagon was like "shit, Iran is bigger than we thought"?

I'm sure the Pentagon did not come up with this idiotic plan. I doubt the current admin is utilizing their frontal lobe.
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