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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#761

Post by ekianjo »

fny wrote: post #747
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

The big mistake was underestimating the appetite for rebellion despite 70%-80% wholesale opposition to the regime.[0] I personally know many, many Iranians who welcome the attacks along with their families. All of the high-profile assassinations involve intelligence from Iranians. However, no one has guns, and government-backed militias roam the streets to maintain order.[1] There is no possibility of military coup.…

> Remember, they killed 30K of their own to quell an uprising.[2]

There is absolutely no way to know if it's true or not

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#762

Post by ekianjo »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #662
integricho wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is so rich hearing that America can attack anybody, but godforbid an attack on the "homeland" is an unforgivable act that will invoke nukes immediately.

That's how nukes work. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the world is divided into haves and have-nots. Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. The USA has been attacked before but it has never been invaded and forced to fight a war on its own soil against foreign enemies. It's possible that they unconsciously believe war is something they bring to others, nev…

> never something others bring to them

Ever heard of the independence war?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#763

Post by tovej »

data_maan wrote: post #757
randunel wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Americans sure love their war crimes! Indiscriminately killing civilians is how they've gotten past, present and future terrorist attacks. I can't imagine the parents of the children they keep on killing (or maiming, or otherwise) standing by and watching. People wouldn't necessarily need to wait for their country's army to do something when they've got nothing significant left to lose.

To be fair, Iran is not pretentious either, killing a few thousand people because they dared to protest. There are no good guys in this conflict.

What was the reason for those protests? Was it perhaps economic hardship brought about by US sanctions? How much is the US liable for the suffering of the Iranian people?

(A lot, is the answer)

That doesn't excuse the Iranian regime, but the US is not exactly helping, is it.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#764

Post by fundatus »

boc wrote: post #318
sph wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Number 1 reason why I want to see the United States of America and its very loud citizens get a taste of humble pie in this self-inflicted crisis of idiocy with global ramifications. Even when discussing a war that's obviously gone out of hand with no easy resolution in right, there's still this air, this attitude from American commenters that somehow the might and brilliance of the US military will prevail in the en…

[flagged]

Well, the US is still dependent on foreign heavy oil for their refineries as it mostly produces shale oil (for export). So it very much isn't independent even though it looks like it when you see the numbers.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#765

Post by tda »

zimpenfish wrote: post #648
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. According to [0], in 2025 Iran had 86M people. Ukraine had 29M (~33%), Germany (highest in Europe) had 83M (~96%, uh?), Iraq had 46M (~53%), and Russia had 146M (~168% / ~59% reversed). Wildly, wildly wrong about Germany but not too far off the rest[1]. [0] https://en.wiki…

I think the comparisons were referring to land area, but I agree this is not that clear from from the comment

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#766

Post by DanielHB »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

I saw a teardown of an Ukrainian drone a while ago and I was surprised how similar the setup was to the IoT project I worked on. I could be setting up a good chunk of the software part of a similar system myself and I am not that specialized of an engineer.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#767

Post by data_maan »

Quarrelsome wrote: post #251
protocolture wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>in a nation of some of the brighest minds on the planet Found the assumption that caused the issue.

Its not a false assumption. The world today is full of innovative products built with American capital and mostly American minds. If Americans want to do something then they have an rich pool of talent to do it well. Sure on average, the population of the US is stupid, but that's true of everywhere.

> built with American capital and mostly American minds.

I would say "built with American agency and commercial spirit", not minds.

Most of the things that we have were first built elsewhere (Germany being a prime supplier here with the mp3 or the Zuse), but turning them commercial was the input that came from America.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#768

Post by bambax »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #662
integricho wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is so rich hearing that America can attack anybody, but godforbid an attack on the "homeland" is an unforgivable act that will invoke nukes immediately.

That's how nukes work. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the world is divided into haves and have-nots. Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. The USA has been attacked before but it has never been invaded and forced to fight a war on its own soil against foreign enemies. It's possible that they unconsciously believe war is something they bring to others, nev…

> the world is divided into haves and have-nots

Yes and the most important lesson of recent history is for have-nots to become haves ASAP.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#769

Post by nixon_why69 »

corimaith wrote: post #701
Galanwe wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The willingness to fight until the end, whatever the cost, is not something you rate a priori. The thing with war is that once you have it for a certain amount of time, you create a generation of people whose kids died, wife died, neighbors and family died, you have nothing to loose anymore. There is a critical mass of casualties upon which you effectively create a population whose sole purpose, for generations, will…

>The thing with war is that once you have it for a certain amount of time, you create a generation of people whose kids died, wife died, neighbors and family died, you have nothing to loose anymore. You... didn't learn history from before 1945 did you?

Guns, radio and widespread literacy change things. We're not talking about the harrying of the north here.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#770

Post by MidnightRider39 »

stickfigure wrote: post #262
Balgair wrote: post #113

In chapter 11 of All Quiet on the Western Front Paul and his unit find an abandoned food cache in the middle of no mans land. Instead of secreting away the food back to their lines where they will have to share it, they decide to just cook and eat it right then and there. But a spotter plane from the allies sees the smoke and then begins shelling their position. Cue a terrifying, if hilarious, scene where the soldier…

> if it should be a ground one, is going to be just like Ukraine is today I do not think this is correct. The problem in Ukraine is that anti-air defenses control the skies, so the only accurate long range fires are expensive missiles in short supply. This seems to not be a problem in Iran. US forces can fly relatively cheap bomb trucks anywhere and drop ordinance on anything. Stealth aircraft and NATO doctrine appar…

There is no political will in the US to spend billions of dollars and institute a national draft and have tens of thousands of soldiers dieing. That would probably cause Vietnam War-style protests if not an outright civil war
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