Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#611

Post by rob74 » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC

citrin_ru wrote: post #552

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine Population size is relevant but not the most important factor. Russia has 146,000,000, more than 4x than Ukraine. It doesn't guarantee that Russia will win the war. > On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. Ukraine also had Bayraktar TB2 overhead which distracted Moskva's crew and provided targeting information. Russia probably…

...also, Germany has 84,000,000 people, so definitely not half of Iran.

> Having said that Iran could sink an american ship if the navy will become complaicent and will assume there are no threats.

Also, this is an election year in the US, and the war is already hugely unpopular, so despite all of Hegseth's posturing, they're probably playing it extra extra safe. That's also the reason why Trump is so angry that other countries aren't willing to take the risk in their place...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#612

Post by theshackleford » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:27 AM UTC

b112 wrote: post #572

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this.…

> The US has some of the most capable spy networks, knowledge, and military experience on the planet.

Oh how cute, we are dusting off the cover on the greatest hits! I remember hearing this one back in the early 2000's! Unrelated, how many WMDs did they find in Iraq again? You know what, never mind, i'm sure it was just LOADS obviously!

> The US knows how to exit this.

Oh yeah, how's that? They gonna spend twenty years and $2.3 trillion dollars there?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#613

Post by gzread » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:28 AM UTC

div wrote: post #87

roenxi wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There aren't a lot of alternatives - the amount of mass killing going on right now is unusually high. People can't spend all day frothing with moral outrage at the horror of it all. If something is routine there isn't much of an alternative than to discuss it as routine. This article is actually unusually good, I wouldn't be surprised if the site was generally anti-war. It isn't unusual for the level of analysis to b…

It’s really quite amazing how the US went in without seemingly an iota of planning beyond “kill ayatollah for regime change”, but at this rate we will see US regime change before Iranian.

Trump asks the Oracle at Delphi what will occur if he invades Iran.

"This war will surely bring about regime change," says the Oracle.

"Good," thinks Trump as he heads into the defense meeting.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#614

Post by rjzzleep » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:28 AM UTC

asa400 wrote: post #438

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

People way underestimate what kind of mental fortitude you have to have to fight an overwhelming enemy. That's not something a tourism oriented country like Cuba has. At least I massively doubt that.

It lacks the ideology to fight such a war, since you have to be ready to die. That's why Yemen and Vietnam won, while Venezuela folded. This is also why US "culture" is so much more powerful as a weapon than the aircraft carriers.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#615

Post by adrian_b » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:29 AM UTC

citrin_ru wrote: post #42

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this shift in carrier-based projection of power in the era of low-cost drones Nothing in this war has suggested carriers are obsolete. A carrier that launches drones and fields an anti-drone strike group would be amazing. We don’t have that. (And even what we do have is great in the carrier department, it’s given us air parity to superiority from way offshore.)

Both can be true - carriers and traditional air force are not obsolete but also western armies are unprepared to deal with the threat posed by a large number of cheap drones which can quickly deplete traditional air defense (based on SAM systems).

If carriers would be designed for drones and missiles and guns instead of for manned aircraft, it is likely that it would be preferable to have a great number of small carriers, instead of a few vulnerable huge carriers.

The launch of drones and missiles could be completely automated and there would be no need for the complex maintenance of reusable airplanes, so such carriers would need only a much smaller crew.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#616

Post by talideon » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:30 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

Germany has a population of ~87,000,000 though.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#617

Post by bwv848 » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:31 AM UTC

bradley13 wrote: post #570

Cheap airborne weapons have irreversibly changed warfare. IIRC a Patriot missile costs something like $4 million. Using them to shoot down $50k Shahed drone is a losing proposition. That's not only because of the price, but because the drones can be produced a lot faster. Even Iran's ballistic missiles are a lot cheaper and faster to produce than any defense system that can reliably destroy them.

Nobody is using Patriot to intercept Shaheds. PAC-2/3 are intended for ballistic missiles and fighter jets. In Ukraine, low-flying drones are primarily countered by FPV, MANPADS, drone-hunting aircraft and truck, and EW before point defense SAM and AA gun.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#618

Post by kakacik » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:31 AM UTC

b112 wrote: post #572

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this.…

You have it backward, Iran is not shipping shahed drones to russia anymore its not 2022, the trend reversed and russians are teaching iranians about their mods that improve penetration chances. russians are now fully self-sufficient with shaheds.

The rest I fully agree with, although its a half-assed effort that will likely backfire long term.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#619

Post by bwv848 » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:32 AM UTC

mamonster wrote: post #610

bwv848 wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OSINTechinical literally had one yesterday https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2038625975332692466

There is literally nothing in this image suggesting they are flying over Iran with this loadout except the account just saying it.

GBU-38 JDAM has very short range.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#620

Post by Jackpillar » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:33 AM UTC

b112 wrote: post #572

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this.…

This reads as a Tom Clancy wet dream of American Machiavellian geopolitical maneuvering and not (what it is) yet another historic military intervention blunder - the likes of which we've seen multiple times in just our lifetimes alone (Vietnam/Iraq) - lead by some of the dumbest people to ever grace the highest positions of our military apparatus.

Not only is China still receiving oil from Iran but Russias oil revenues have spiked significantly because of the conflict with the FT considering Russia the biggest winners of this conflict so far.

Hard to really analyze your post because you look at geopolitics through the lens of Jack Bauer