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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#581

Post by cess11 »

flyinglizard wrote: post #494
Animats wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right re 80 million in Germany. After a bombing campaign, most of the people tend to hate whoever bombed them.

Was it true for Japan and Germany post WWII? Or between European nations after the same said war? On the other hand, until a couple of years ago, Iranians and Israeli never directly exchanged even a bullet between them and yet Iran was dedicated to the destruction of Israel, so YMMV.

Yes, hence the continued US occupation after WWII, among other countermeasures.

Israel has been killing iranians for quite some time. Here are some notable examples from the last twenty years or so:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassinations_of_Iranian_nucl...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#582

Post by fooker »

justonceokay wrote: post #529
fooker wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We make plenty of stuff at scale Maybe this video of a rather famous YouTuber trying to manufacture something as simple as a grill scrubber with a US supply chain would help you understand how bad it is? https://youtu.be/3ZTGwcHQfLY

I agree the situation is dire, but do not underestimate the US government’s ability to spend its way to gain a desired result. The first time a bullet hits US soil there will be 50 million people falling over themselves to manufacture shoes by hand if it helps “kill the bad guys”

Does this somehow not apply for cartel violence that spills over the border, the same cartels that have been declared as terrorist organizations ?

I am finding it difficult to imagine it'll be any different for terrorists of a different ethnicity.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#583

Post by shiroiuma »

kergonath wrote: post #234
free652 wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's dual use infrastructure. Its also used for military and goverment purposes, right? The same as China providing weapons components to Russia, masking them as "civilian".

"The Russians did it as well" is not a fantastic excuse for a war crime… You might want to think this through a bit more.

What's the problem. The Russians do stuff that you say are "war crimes", and what happens to them? Nothing. So why should anyone care if some person on the internet says these are war crimes? There's obviously no penalty against doing them, so they're not really war crimes.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#584

Post by hn_throw2025 »

cladopa wrote: post #197
hn_throw2025 wrote: post #125

“during WWII, the US Navy… winning the U-boat war in the Atlantic” Sounds like typical US revisionist history. They developed ASDIC? HF/DF? Hedgehog? Even the depth charge? No, that was all the British. I would say technological development plus the Enigma decrypts were the biggest factor.

>No, that was all the British. And not even British. For example most of the Enigma decryption was the genius work of a Polish man. Britain received the immigration of half the Nobel prices of the world in a couple years as the jews escaped nazism.

The original Bomba was the genius work of a Polish man, but was no use from 1938-1939 when the Enigma cipher was strengthened. At which point the Turing-Welchman Bombe was developed. The Battle of the Atlantic ran between 1939 and 1945.

For the much harder Lorenz cipher used by German High Command from 1940, the Colossus machine was developed by Tommy Flowers at the GPO and became operational in 1944.

None of which involved the US Navy, which was my original point.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#585

Post by DaedalusII »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

"Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. " >Germany's population is approximately 83.5 to 84.1 million as of early 2026

agree with analysis of iran industry etc, cant see cuba happening. usmil could roll over cuba in a few months and the local population probably wouldnt be hostile

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#586

Post by misja111 »

imtringued wrote: post #573
misja111 wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. Yes that would be a typical US solution. Let's liberate the Cuban people! By flattening them.

I'm not sure that you can have the moral high ground in a hypothetical scenario where Cuba conspires with Iran to attack the US. At that point both parties are banking on "might makes right".

I was replying to OP who sketched the scenario

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba ..

As you probably know POTUS was announcing already that Cuba would be next.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#588

Post by don_esteban »

b112 wrote: post #572
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this.…

Re: I'd be astonished if 1000s of exit strategies weren't deep planned, maybe a dozen best-outcomes planned, before a single plane bombed anything. The US knows how to exit this.

Isn't this just wishfull thinking?

I mean, more mature administrations than Trump's have blundered into Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan without real exit strategies...

Re: Iranian drones to Russia:

Russians now (for quite some time) have their own production and development of Shahed derivatives, I doubt there are shipments from Iran to Russia.

Re: policing Hormuz:

Europe won't do it, for the same reason US is not doing it (it is an impossible task).

Re: the overall aim:

deny China the access to the Gulf oil, succeeding so far, but ultimately pointless (China will be lifted by greatly increased demand for its renewables and battery tech, as well as their electric cars)

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#589

Post by angry_octet »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #507
angry_octet wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much further than that. At least 200nm using drone ISR to cue Shaheeds, 500nm with satellite ISR. (With a 90kg warhead.) There are also many fishing vessels in the region, originating from a number of countries (e.g. Oman, Iran, Pakistan) which can report sightings of VLCCs. Once you have sighted the ship it is an undergrad project to implement target classification and recognition using off the shelf algorithms. It…

Is a no-fishing-boat zone feasible? Like a no-fly zone? Or do you need a partner to pot innocent fishermen?

How many innocent fishermen are you willing to murder? And of course, the famine in Balochistan that would follow. Maybe not a great idea if you want an uprising of the Balochi against the Persians.

Oman is a regional ally, but they would not stand idly by while their citizens are killed.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#590

Post by chistev »

PunchyHamster wrote: post #258
Balgair wrote: post #113

In chapter 11 of All Quiet on the Western Front Paul and his unit find an abandoned food cache in the middle of no mans land. Instead of secreting away the food back to their lines where they will have to share it, they decide to just cook and eat it right then and there. But a spotter plane from the allies sees the smoke and then begins shelling their position. Cue a terrifying, if hilarious, scene where the soldier…

Well, no, the goal is very clear - try to somehow make reps not lose next election and take focus away from PDF files

Moving focus from PDF files has been achieved - at least for now. But how do you make reps not lose next election with this war lingering on the news?
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