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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#451

Post by solid_fuel »

jepj57 wrote: post #433
yfw wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok general, the armchair is that way

Awesome content. Added a lot to the discussion

Your analysis of the war seems to hinge on a lack of "gumption", which is coincidentally the exact same thing I've heard conservative old boomers say about Vietnam. So I would say you're about equal in terms of adding to the discussion. It is, unfortunately, divorced from reality.

The critical thing about hidden missiles that you seem to be missing is: you can't bomb them if you don't know where they are.

We've already seen a 4 week bombing campaign that has included everything from a children's school to a chemotherapy company to bunkers under Tehran, so I don't think there's a lack of "bloodlust" or "gumption" from any of the so-called leaders at the DoD. Rather, it seems that they simply - don't know where the missiles and drones are. Which as I pointed out earlier, makes it rather hard to bomb them.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#452

Post by solid_fuel »

oceanplexian wrote: post #430
jmward01 wrote: post #276

The title should change 'won't' to 'shouldn't'. This administration doesn't do things because of deep understanding, it does them because of gut reaction. The US Military could, at an unknown cost, just blast away. This article points out, rightfully, how scared we are to put our weapons in harms way because of how expensive they are. I made this argument many times to friends years ago. From a military strategic poi…

> This administration doesn't do things because of deep understanding, it does them because of gut reaction. Do you think that the overwhelming tactical success in Venezuela, or the basically flawless decapitation strikes in the opening weeks of the Iran conflict were gut reactions? Because of that’s the case I’d be terrified to know what the Pentagon is capable of if they really put their mind to it.

> the basically flawless decapitation strikes in the opening weeks of the Iran conflict

Ah, the flawless decapitation strikes that have shown Iran we truly mean business. Remind me, how quickly did they surrender after those strikes?

Oh, they didn't?

Maybe they weren't "flawless", hmm?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#453

Post by lmm »

pram wrote: post #290
jmward01 wrote: post #276

The title should change 'won't' to 'shouldn't'. This administration doesn't do things because of deep understanding, it does them because of gut reaction. The US Military could, at an unknown cost, just blast away. This article points out, rightfully, how scared we are to put our weapons in harms way because of how expensive they are. I made this argument many times to friends years ago. From a military strategic poi…

I think our navy is mostly designed for prestige too, but it seems like you could use the current carriers to transport like a million disposable drones?

> it seems like you could use the current carriers to transport like a million disposable drones?

To what end? You can use them as an extremely expensive cargo ship, sure. But if you're talking about launching drones off of our carriers, you have the problem that whatever you are in drone range of is also in drone range of you.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#454

Post by zmmmmm »

Given it is reported to be successfully targeting Israel with cluster ammunitions in warheads, I am curious what stops Iran from targeting US ships even far outside the strait? I would have thought if you could send multiple missiles with cluster bombs simultaneously at short notice it would be very difficult to counter and impose catastrophic cost.

Is anti-missile defense is just that good on ships that no amount of simultaneous missiles and decoys can overcome it?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#455

Post by maxglute »

asa400 wrote: post #438
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

The real thought experiment is ~600m people in central/south American within ~6000km, i.e. IRBM range of US gulf coast, where ~50% of US oil refinery and LNG plant production are. Now that Iran has validated mid tier power can cobble together precision strike complex, it's only going to be matter of time before relatively wealthier countries realize only way out of M/Donroe is to build conventional strike against US strategic infra. This stuff going to get commoditized sooner than later with competing mega constellation ISR. It's pretty clear building up conventional airforce/navy etc will simply get overmatched vs US projection and only credible deterrence is PRC style rocket force. There's a fuckload of places to hide 8x8 missile launchers in the Americas.

E: 50% of PRODUCTION, not plants, as in a few plants responsible for 50% of US refinery / LNG production.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#456

Post by danmaz74 »

zmmmmm wrote: post #454

Given it is reported to be successfully targeting Israel with cluster ammunitions in warheads, I am curious what stops Iran from targeting US ships even far outside the strait? I would have thought if you could send multiple missiles with cluster bombs simultaneously at short notice it would be very difficult to counter and impose catastrophic cost. Is anti-missile defense is just that good on ships that no amount of…

The chances of a ballistic missile hitting a ship - a small, moving target in the middle of the sea - are negligible. And a 4kg bomblet wouldn't do much damage anyway.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#458

Post by csomar »

mothballed wrote: post #305
gentleman11 wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the people criticizing the comment above, think of all the other illegal things trump is already doing. It's not a matter of "can't", it's a matter of if he will and who will stop him (nobody, so far)

I'm surprised he hasn't considered dropping The Bomb. No one will stop him, and it could actually garner a win.

Dropping the bomb will be a massive loss for the US as it’ll legitimatize nuclear warfare. Right out of the attack, the US ceases being the first firepower and becomes equal to the rest of the nuclear ones.

Next Russia takes Ukraine in a week and rich countries will buy nukes from North Korea and Pakistan.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#459

Post by angled »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

Bush and his son in one gulf, Bobby and his in another. Crisis after crisis.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#460

Post by znnajdla »

zmmmmm wrote: post #454

Given it is reported to be successfully targeting Israel with cluster ammunitions in warheads, I am curious what stops Iran from targeting US ships even far outside the strait? I would have thought if you could send multiple missiles with cluster bombs simultaneously at short notice it would be very difficult to counter and impose catastrophic cost. Is anti-missile defense is just that good on ships that no amount of…

Who says they didn’t? Although not widely reported in mainstream US media, there are lots of claims online that US Navy ships were hit by missiles, including a clip from Trump himself. Why is the Ford and Lincoln so far away?
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