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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#291

Post by CodeMage »

wheelerwj wrote: post #283
testing22321 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing just one carrier would give Trump all the excuse he needs to drop a nuke, declare a monster emergency and cancel elections…

He can’t cancel elections. Stop fear mongering about that. He can 100% drop a nuke though, so thats probably worth fear mongering about.

Good thing he's so good at respecting rules that say he can't do things. And good thing that he's had to face the punishment for breaking some of those rules. Imagine reading what you wrote if he were repeatedly allowed to break rules without any consequences.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#292

Post by platinumrad »

high_na_euv wrote: post #11

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

> You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda

Me.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#293

Post by somat »

rustyhancock wrote: post #238
tim333 wrote: post #225

>The era of carrier-dominated airpower is fading, as cheap, unmanned anti-ship weapons reshape naval warfare, whether US planners are ready for it or not. is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. Also straits being closed to shipping by whatever power co…

I think the point being made is that before Iranian drone doctrine (they were the originators of the long range drones, the FPV drones and sea drone which have dominated the Ukraine way too). A US CSG could simply sit in the Hormuz strait shoot down any incoming missiles and keep it open. Right now the US has 3 CSG in the middle east and nearly 50000 troops. After weeks of intensive bombing the strait remains closed…

Quick, what's the difference between a suicide drone and a guided missile?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#294

Post by forinti »

pfedak wrote: post #236
trevithick wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that book fit in the timeline? It was published in 1984.

I believe they are mixing it up with The Guns of August (published in 1962, also by Tuchman), which JFK was fond of and supposedly drew on during the Cuban missile crisis.

You are absolutely right. My mistake. I read them both and certainly recommend them.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#295

Post by lcnPylGDnU4H9OF »

gentleman11 wrote: post #285
testing22321 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing just one carrier would give Trump all the excuse he needs to drop a nuke, declare a monster emergency and cancel elections…

To the people criticizing the comment above, think of all the other illegal things trump is already doing. It's not a matter of "can't", it's a matter of if he will and who will stop him (nobody, so far)

Regardless, Iran sinking an aircraft carrier does not excuse Trump to nuke Iran and cancel elections. Your point is that he does not care about having a justification.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#296

Post by randomNumber7 »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #212
kashunstva wrote: post #10

Whether or not professional military strategists and planners anticipated this shift in carrier-based projection of power in the era of low-cost drones, it is nearly certain that the Commander-in-Chief of the United States military has not. And if the Commander is involved in the either the day-to-day operations or the strategic level of planning, I can’t imagine that whatever reasoning about these shifts in power dy…

An aerial drone capable of materially damaging a modern navy ship costs $1-2M a piece. Anything much cheaper doesn't have the range, survivability, or required warhead to do much more than scratch the paint. A cheap drone is only useful against soft targets. It is the reason Ukraine is scaling up heavy cruise missile production even though they already have vast numbers of cheap long-range drones. Being "cheap" isn't…

These boat drones ukraine used to sink some russian ships seem to be very hard to avoid.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#297

Post by duxup »

wheelerwj wrote: post #283
testing22321 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing just one carrier would give Trump all the excuse he needs to drop a nuke, declare a monster emergency and cancel elections…

He can’t cancel elections. Stop fear mongering about that. He can 100% drop a nuke though, so thats probably worth fear mongering about.

What is the “can’t” aspect here?

The law?

He doesn’t care about that…

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#298

Post by wavemode »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #209
b00ty4breakfast wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can lose a game of chess to a guy with fewer and less powerful pieces than you if you play like a moron. The US has been playing the Iran situation like a gigantic moron.

Maybe I am misinformed, but I was under the impression that the US was so capable it is not even playing the same game as a country like Iran. As in they could brute force solutions due to superior technology and infrastructure, because that is how much more the US spends on it.

Well, regardless of technology, the space of things you can accomplish without risking your own troops' lives is very small. (Unless you're willing to go nuclear, which has the pesky downside of ending the world.)

To put it in perspective - in Vietnam, opposition forces lost over a million troops and continued to fight viciously. The US lost around 50,000 and gave up and left.

Democratic countries simply lack the stomach for this kind of thing (which is a good thing, really).

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#299

Post by baud147258 »

somat wrote: post #293
rustyhancock wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point being made is that before Iranian drone doctrine (they were the originators of the long range drones, the FPV drones and sea drone which have dominated the Ukraine way too). A US CSG could simply sit in the Hormuz strait shoot down any incoming missiles and keep it open. Right now the US has 3 CSG in the middle east and nearly 50000 troops. After weeks of intensive bombing the strait remains closed…

Quick, what's the difference between a suicide drone and a guided missile?

Cost, I'd guess? There must be a reason why Russia and Ukraine are using more drones than missiles in their strikes. And while capabilities are somewhat different, if a ship carrying oil or LNG get hit by either one, it's going to have some consequences

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#300

Post by fhub »

somat wrote: post #293
rustyhancock wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point being made is that before Iranian drone doctrine (they were the originators of the long range drones, the FPV drones and sea drone which have dominated the Ukraine way too). A US CSG could simply sit in the Hormuz strait shoot down any incoming missiles and keep it open. Right now the US has 3 CSG in the middle east and nearly 50000 troops. After weeks of intensive bombing the strait remains closed…

Quick, what's the difference between a suicide drone and a guided missile?

At the moment, cruise speed and manufacturing price.
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