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OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

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Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've wondered how many announced fundraising rounds were like this. It's in everyone's interest (VCs and entrepreneurs) if the message to the outside world is "this company is amazing so they've raised a boatload of cash". But VCs might not want to give it all up front, or unconditionally. It makes it hard to say what the valuation of a company is. If the milestones are unlikely to be hit, then it's anyone's guess.

This is a common structure. It's confusing to people who don't know finance or startups when they first see it. Even VCs don't get all of their fund money delivered into their bank account when they raise a funding round. It's inefficient and undesirable for everyone involved to have to move all of the money up-front, at once. If you talk to anyone in startup funding or finance they'll be familiar with the term "capi…

I think more people are aware that VCs raise commitments for a fund that they can pull in via capital calls than are aware that startup funding from VCs come with hurdles to clear.

This is perhaps because the most common round to raise is a small/early one, and these tend not to have hurdles. Founders that only ever raised these rounds wouldn't necessarily know what happens in later/bigger rounds.

Also, I wonder if capital calls come with hurdles as well? That is, can an LP refuse to put in more money if the VC's recent investments have not done well? I would think not, since it typically takes many years to determine whether investments were good or not.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is their next step to ensure local models never overtake them? As someone who experiments with local models a lot, I don’t see this as a threat. Running LLMs on big server hardware will always be faster and higher quality than what we can fit on our laptops. Even in the future when there are open weight models that I can run on my laptop that match today’s Opus, I would still be using a hosted variant for most…

If your laptop overheats when you push your GPU, you can buy purpose-built "gaming" laptops that are at least nominally intended to sustain those workloads with much better cooling. Of course, running your inference on a homelab platform deployed for that purpose, without the thermal constraints of a laptop, is also possible.

I didn't say it overheats. It gets hot and the fans blow, neither of which are enjoyable.

MacBook Pro laptops are preferred over "gaming" laptops for LLM use because they have large unified memory with high bandwidth. No gaming laptop can give you as much high-bandwidth LLM memory as a MacBook Pro or an AMD Strix Halo integrated system. The discrete gaming GPUs are optimized for gaming with relatively smaller VRAM.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#213
There is a lot of talk about the AI bubble. I think there are comparisons to the late 90's/early 00's here with early stars rising quickly but, ultimately, falling. Since essentially everything touches the internet now it is clear that the 'internet bubble' was more of a shakeup of companies than a real over-hype of the internet. That, I think, is at play right now too with the 'AI bubble'. AI isn't going away but some of the early stars may not make it.

So, the real question here is: Is OpenAI Netscape, or are they Google?

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#214
post #7

I'm old enough to remember when companies worth $1 billion were called "unicorns." Now we have a company raising 122 times that? Valued at nearly 1000 times that...? At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected.

The money is worth much much less than it was before, we live in times of global hyper inflation.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#215
post #194
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably a lot? It would be much more tax-advantageous to do it this way, $50B worth of credits != $50B worth of spend on Amazon's part, and they might meet in the middle about how much equity that translates to.

I can see a lot of advantages for Amazon, but I don't see why it would be tax-advantageous.

Situation A:

You're Amazon. You give OpenAI $50B cash investment, they then hand you back the $50B over time because they buy $50B worth of Amazon AWS services (they would use AWS or other equivalent compute anyway). OpenAI pays an additional $1-5B in sales taxes on top of their $50B compute purchase. Now let's say you have $25B opex for said compute. You then have $25B profits, you pay 21% corporate taxes on the profits, so you too owe the government about $5B. Government collects around $6-10B on this whole transaction.

Situation B:

You're Amazon. You let OpenAI use your services by handing them API credentials that unlock what would normally cost $50B worth of services, but no money changes hands. You have zero revenue from the transaction, write off the $25B opex as a tax loss on your other profits elsewhere in the company. You thus pay ~$5B less tax on your other income as a company, and OpenAI also doesn't have to pay sales tax because they didn't actually purchase anything.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did Uber somewhat break even? They lost $34b before making a profit. Uber was only on a path to monopoly in the US, not world wide. It’s lost to local competitors in most countries. And it can get disrupted by self driving cars soon. OpenAI’s SOTA LLM training smells like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me. The cost to train the smartest models keep increasing. Most competitors will bow out as they do not have t…

The cost of copying SOTA models though is super cheap and doesn’t take super long.

How do you distill when OpenAI and Anthropic inevitably move to tasks running in the cloud? IE. Go buy this extremely hard to get concert ticket for me.

Distilling might only be effective in the chat bot dominant era. We are about to move to an agents era.

Furthermore, I’m guessing distilling will get harder and harder. Claude Code leak shows some primitive anti distilling methods already. There’s research showing that models know when it’s being benchmarked. Who’s to say Anthropic and OpenAI aren’t able to detect when their models are being distilled?

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#217
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is reality-distortion field rivaling that of Jobs', and a crisis of faith. Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.

> Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI. This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently? Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also…

> To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before

Maybe in Europe. The US stock market has nearly tripled since then. Literally the best period of stock growth in history.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#219
post #107

$2b/month which is $24b/year. Not as much as I expected considering they were at $20b by end of 2025.[0] They only added $4b since? Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already. However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sale…

And that is revenue only. In the past 15 or so years most US companies (and especially startups) always talk about revenue only. Wheras only profit should matter. E.g. what good is 20 billion per year when "OpenAI is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spending through 2030". That is $150 billion per year?

The startup game is about building assets and then cashing out on them during exit.

Assets are harder to measure. Facebook used to say something silly like every user was worth $100. That sounded ridiculous for a completely free app but over a decade later, the company is worth more than that. Revenue is an easier way of measuring assets than profit.

Profit doesn't really matter. It gets taxed. But it's not about dodging taxes; it's because sitting on a pile of money is inefficient. They can hire people. They can buy hardware. They can give discounts to users with high CLTV. They can acquire instead of building. It's healthy to have profit close to $0, if not slightly negative. If revenues fall or costs increase, they can make up for the difference by just firing people or cutting unprofitable projects.

Also when they're raising money, it makes absolutely no sense to be profitable. If they were profitable, why would they raise money? Just use the profits.

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