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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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101–110 of 1001 posts

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#101
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US public discourse is so dehumanized today that anyone who is not "with them" is literally not a human anymore. Even within the country itself "the leftards" are considered an obstacle which can be removed if only enough force is applied. Sending armed agents at protesters is seen as being the same thing as sending pest control to clear out beaver dams on the creek. Nobody cares what the beavers think, they are…

[flagged]

It took 8 years the last time.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#102
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have seen the same from other sources https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/ > This is the second sudden bombing campaign the country has suffered in as many years – they do not want there to be a third next year and a fourth the year after that. But promises not to bomb them don’t mean a whole lot: establishing deterrence here means inflicting quite a lot of pain. In practice, if Iran wants fut…

While it can very well be true, I wonder if we don't exagerate the will of the iranian regime and its ablity in the current time to think this far ahead. I see them more in survival mode, I'm not sure they fight for future deterence, maybe the goals align currently but seems to me to be happenstance. They seem resilient but I wonder how much they would be close of falling. Of course, I wouldn't have done this war, an…

> They seem resilient but I wonder how much they would be close of falling

While neither of us have any special insight into that, and no-one has certainty, I urge you to read the essay linked, as this topic is in fact discussed with historic examples. "There is a frequent mistake, often from folks who deal in economics, to assume that countries will give up on wars when the economics turn bad ... There is a great deal of ruin in a nation."

You are right that the the Iranian regime's short and longer term goals align. But, happenstance or not, they are aligned and likely will stay that way.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#103
post #93

I'm always perturbed to see people talk of mass killings so casually

Number 1 reason why I want to see the United States of America and its very loud citizens get a taste of humble pie in this self-inflicted crisis of idiocy with global ramifications. Even when discussing a war that's obviously gone out of hand with no easy resolution in right, there's still this air, this attitude from American commenters that somehow the might and brilliance of the US military will prevail in the en…

a strong majority of the united states citizens are against the war, despite a full court propaganda press against the right and a no-kings distraction op against the left

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/03/25/americans-br...

don't confuse american citizens with the bought-and-paid talking & tweeting heads we are forced to live with

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point, there's going to be a dumbenough general to try to paratrooper their way in. They've spent the past year trying to cull "dysloyal" troops, so at some point, the delusion will surface is an absurdly dumb attempt. Hard to see it any other way.

US forces are not partisan and not culled, they're mostly the same entity they were last year, but with a few Generals asked to retire. (Edit: highly professional I might add. There are quirks, and obvious hints of 'nationalist bias' - but that's to be expected. They are not the 'cultural problem' we see on the news - at least not for now. They lean 'normal') The current Joint Chiefs is a bit obsequious but he's not…

> They won't do anything to crazy.

I don't know, they've been talking up a lot of crazy stuff, like strikes on desalination facilities and the power grid.

> The craziest thing they could do is 'full invasion' and Congress won't allow that.

Genuninely unclear to me whether Congress has control here; don't they currently have a Republican majority who will agree to anything anyway?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#105
post #6

At the heart of this is the fact that America has lost the capability to manufacture anything at scale. High tech interceptors and missiles and aircraft carriers are great, but with China's help these are outnumbered by three (soon to be four) orders of magnitude. It's unclear if we can do much other than threaten sanctions and nukes, with not much in between.

> America has lost the capability to manufacture anything at scale We make plenty of stuff at scale. We just haven’t designed any of military around it since WWII. > unclear if we can do much other than threaten sanctions and nukes We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America.

> We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America.

That is happening, only with "EU" not "America". Because the EU are Ukraine's allies.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-open-10-weapons-expor...

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-to-open-arms-factory...

https://euobserver.com/209049/eu-signs-off-on-e260m-grant-fo...

As for the US being Ukrainian allies as compared to EU, well: https://kyivindependent.com/us-military-aid-to-ukraine-dropp...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#106
post #2

Not every war can be fought from air, there needs to be soldiers on the ground. In fight against ISIS, the Iraqi amry, Shia Militias, Kurds and others were ground forces while Allies were in Air. In Afghanistan & Gulf War, US forces were on ground. But in these "conflict", no party is ready to send ground forces, ground forces to stop the air drones, ship drones etc. So the "blockade" will probably continue.

> the "blockade" will probably continue The part that makes the Strait weird is no belligerent wants it entirely closed. (Maybe Israel.) Iran wants to export. And America wants exports. So you get this weird stalemate where America doesn’t want to actually blockade Iran, while Iran seems to do just enough to keep America from actually shutting the Strait.

America isn't getting exports from Iran, until recently they were sanctioned. More of a problem is that the biggest buyer of Iranian oil is China. I don't think that getting out of the war with Iran by starting a war with China would be an improvement.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#107
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Number 1 reason why I want to see the United States of America and its very loud citizens get a taste of humble pie in this self-inflicted crisis of idiocy with global ramifications. Even when discussing a war that's obviously gone out of hand with no easy resolution in right, there's still this air, this attitude from American commenters that somehow the might and brilliance of the US military will prevail in the en…

a strong majority of the united states citizens are against the war, despite a full court propaganda press against the right and a no-kings distraction op against the left https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/03/25/americans-br... don't confuse american citizens with the bought-and-paid talking & tweeting heads we are forced to live with

"No Kings" isn't a distraction, it's very tangible popular opposition, and they're certainly not in favor of the war?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#108
post #97
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America. The soviet union collapsed as a result of military overspending and massive supply chain corruption in an attempt to keep up with an opponent with lower levels of corruption and a far more powerful industrial base. Which is to say, inviting the gold toilet brigade from Ukraine to come and build our weapons while showerin…

Reality of course is the other way around: the US defense industry gets to build gold toilets (for the White House ballroom built on the ruins of the East Wing), while the Ukranians absolutely must build stuff that works and is cheap or they get a missile on their heads. The US survived spending a trillion dollars to achieve very little in Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm sure they'll survive spending another trillion over…

The reality is that most of the Ukrainian leadership is like Timur Mindich - furiously stashing away cash for the day when they inevitably have to flee to the west like he did. For now they are generally safe in Ukraine as Russia avoids bombing leadership centers for strategic reasons.

The west tolerates nearly all of the corruption in Ukraine but keeps tight control of two political organs in Ukraine - NABU and SAPO.

These "anti corruption agencies" will mostly hear and see no evil until a politican in Ukraine deviates from western foreign policy goals. Then they "discover" how corrupt this one individual turned out to be and crack down on them until everybody is once again on the same page.

Twice they have threatened Zelensky (once when he tried to bring the agencies under his direct control) and twice he has backed down.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stupidly, yes, with carpet bombing. Practically, no, that would be horrible. More horrible, possibly, than taking out the power and water infrastructure.

Trump casually talks about destroying the energy infrastructure, power plants, desalination plants etc. This is one of the most controversial things that the Russians do in Ukraine - attack the grid when it's cold to try and freeze people to death. To willingly deprive a country of 100,000,000 people of water and power coming into summer would surely be a war-crime.

Iran already had severe water problems. Attacking the water infrastructure would definitely cause huge civilian casualties. Israel is used to that. Not clear whether America is ready to go into the midterms with an official policy of US-flagged genocide.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#110
post #87
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There aren't a lot of alternatives - the amount of mass killing going on right now is unusually high. People can't spend all day frothing with moral outrage at the horror of it all. If something is routine there isn't much of an alternative than to discuss it as routine. This article is actually unusually good, I wouldn't be surprised if the site was generally anti-war. It isn't unusual for the level of analysis to b…

It’s really quite amazing how the US went in without seemingly an iota of planning beyond “kill ayatollah for regime change”, but at this rate we will see US regime change before Iranian.

Enough planning for the Secretary of War to buy defense stocks and the son of the president to own a drone manufacturing company.

Just not planning for anything that might help "make America great again".

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