Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#51

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC

khalic wrote: post #33

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this shift in carrier-based projection of power in the era of low-cost drones Nothing in this war has suggested carriers are obsolete. A carrier that launches drones and fields an anti-drone strike group would be amazing. We don’t have that. (And even what we do have is great in the carrier department, it’s given us air parity to superiority from way offshore.)

Lol carriers were already being overwhelmed by regular missiles, this now means a multi billion dollar ship can and will be destroyed by cheap drones if it's anywhere near its optimal deployment zone.

> carriers were already being overwhelmed by regular missiles

Where? When?

> if it's anywhere near its optimal deployment zone

What are you referring to? The entire modern carrier strike group is architected around using stand-off weapons to clear threats to make way for stand-in weapons. The relevant ranges are what your stand-in bombers can hit without re-fuelling versus with. The era of direct firing from ships passed ages ago–that doesn't make carriers less valuable, just changes their role.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#52

Post by avianlyric » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

kashunstva wrote: post #10

Whether or not professional military strategists and planners anticipated this shift in carrier-based projection of power in the era of low-cost drones, it is nearly certain that the Commander-in-Chief of the United States military has not. And if the Commander is involved in the either the day-to-day operations or the strategic level of planning, I can’t imagine that whatever reasoning about these shifts in power dy…

> this shift in carrier-based projection of power in the era of low-cost drones Nothing in this war has suggested carriers are obsolete. A carrier that launches drones and fields an anti-drone strike group would be amazing. We don’t have that. (And even what we do have is great in the carrier department, it’s given us air parity to superiority from way offshore.)

If a carrier can launch fields of drones and missiles, then whatever land mass your attacking can launch more, given they obviously have a lot more space.

The change in dynamic here isn’t a function of carriers or their abilities. It’s a change in the cost of drones and missiles. The cost of a “good enough” drone and missile is now so low that opponents of the US can simply build the thing faster than the US can build and deliver them. In effect the technological advantage is that carriers represented for a long time has been completely neutralised.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#53

Post by high_na_euv » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC

leoc wrote: post #26

high_na_euv wrote: post #11

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

To be fair, it was bright Chinese minds at ByteDance which worked on getting US teenagers addicted to TikTok videos.

Meta, Google did their parts too

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#54

Post by panick21_ » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC

khalic wrote: post #33

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this shift in carrier-based projection of power in the era of low-cost drones Nothing in this war has suggested carriers are obsolete. A carrier that launches drones and fields an anti-drone strike group would be amazing. We don’t have that. (And even what we do have is great in the carrier department, it’s given us air parity to superiority from way offshore.)

Lol carriers were already being overwhelmed by regular missiles, this now means a multi billion dollar ship can and will be destroyed by cheap drones if it's anywhere near its optimal deployment zone.

You have any evidence for this? Because low cost drones can't fly very far, are easy to spot with radar, are slow as hell and can be shot down with cheap intercepters, or even lasers as the US is already deploying.

Traditional anti-shipping missiles are a bigger danger.

The optimal deployment zone is far off shore, and there its very hard to reach.

Is your point that you can put a huge carrier literally in the straits?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#55

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:55 AM UTC

giantg2 wrote: post #47

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> America has lost the capability to manufacture anything at scale We make plenty of stuff at scale. We just haven’t designed any of military around it since WWII. > unclear if we can do much other than threaten sanctions and nukes We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America.

"We make plenty of stuff at scale." Not the stuff that matters (chips, electronics, metals, etc). We don't even have a primary lead smelter, which we would likely need if we got into a peer conflict. It's also important to note that the US lacks the ability to quickly pivot and set up plants. Much of the knowledge to do so has been disappearing as employment in that sector has been steadily declining for decades. Sur…

We suck at ultra-heavy industry that outputs commodities. We're great at light industry, or specialised heavy industry, which includes a lot of electronics. You're correct on inflexibility.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#56

Post by bluegatty » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:55 AM UTC

cyanydeez wrote: post #32

bluegatty wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no party even capable of doing it. The Gulf coastline is almost 1000 miles long, there would have to be a gigantic occupation of an area the size of a small country, at the same time as there would be 'all out war' with Iran, which would be backed by China and to a lesser extent Russia, and whereupon an invasion would provide them with millions of determined fighters. We're talking 'Gulf War' scale of operat…

At some point, there's going to be a dumbenough general to try to paratrooper their way in. They've spent the past year trying to cull "dysloyal" troops, so at some point, the delusion will surface is an absurdly dumb attempt. Hard to see it any other way.

US forces are not partisan and not culled, they're mostly the same entity they were last year, but with a few Generals asked to retire.

(Edit: highly professional I might add. There are quirks, and obvious hints of 'nationalist bias' - but that's to be expected. They are not the 'cultural problem' we see on the news - at least not for now. They lean 'normal')

The current Joint Chiefs is a bit obsequious but he's not crazy.

These are very sane people, for the most part.

They may be pressed to do something risky, like land troops at Kharg island, but not completely suicidal.

That 'risk' may entail getting a number of soldiers captured, but that's not on the extreme side of military failure, it's mostly geopolitical failure. It would certainly end DJT as a popular movement.

Having a ship hit, or a few soldiers captured - and this sounds morose - is normal. That's why they exist. It's the political fallout that's deadly.

They won't do anything to crazy. The craziest thing they could do is 'full invasion' and Congress won't allow that. It's very unpopular and DJT has populist instinct as well - he's trying to 'find a way out'.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#57

Post by high_na_euv » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:55 AM UTC

yomismoaqui wrote: post #34

high_na_euv wrote: post #11

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

I prefer having those minds focused on optimizing ad serving than on optimizing school bombings.

I meant intercepting missiles, drones, etc

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#58

Post by smitty1e » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:55 AM UTC

lpapez wrote: post #31

poulpy123 wrote: post #19

I'm always perturbed to see people talk of mass killings so casually

The US public discourse is so dehumanized today that anyone who is not "with them" is literally not a human anymore. Even within the country itself "the leftards" are considered an obstacle which can be removed if only enough force is applied. Sending armed agents at protesters is seen as being the same thing as sending pest control to clear out beaver dams on the creek. Nobody cares what the beavers think, they are…

[flagged]

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#59

Post by raincole » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:56 AM UTC

cicko wrote: post #30

high_na_euv wrote: post #11

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

> im from eu Yeah, the ultimate place of military preparedness.

It's not "look I'm doing better than you," it's "please don't repeat our mistakes."

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#60

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 10:57 AM UTC

KingOfCoders wrote: post #13

I don't get that "Strait" discussion. Where does the Strait begin and end? If somehow the US Navy "opens" the Strait, what stops Iran to attack every ship moving in the direction of the Strait? Where does the "protection zone" start and end?

> Where does the Strait begin and end?

Practically speaking, the Musandam Peninsula [1]. Open that to the sea and you make everyone except Iraq and Kuwait happy.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musandam_Peninsula