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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#21

I don't get that "Strait" discussion. Where does the Strait begin and end? If somehow the US Navy "opens" the Strait, what stops Iran to attack every ship moving in the direction of the Strait? Where does the "protection zone" start and end?

at a range where short-range anti-ship missiles can reach ships from Iranian territory.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#22
post #2

Not every war can be fought from air, there needs to be soldiers on the ground. In fight against ISIS, the Iraqi amry, Shia Militias, Kurds and others were ground forces while Allies were in Air. In Afghanistan & Gulf War, US forces were on ground. But in these "conflict", no party is ready to send ground forces, ground forces to stop the air drones, ship drones etc. So the "blockade" will probably continue.

There is no party even capable of doing it.

The Gulf coastline is almost 1000 miles long, there would have to be a gigantic occupation of an area the size of a small country, at the same time as there would be 'all out war' with Iran, which would be backed by China and to a lesser extent Russia, and whereupon an invasion would provide them with millions of determined fighters.

We're talking 'Gulf War' scale of operation against a much bigger, more capable country, and of forces willing to fight.

And the US doesn't even have anywhere to do it from.

Assuming a Gulf country would host an invasion force - extremely unlikely - there's no magical way for US to cross the Gulf with large numbers of forces, as we can't get capitol ships in there in the first place.

There's no amphibious capability at the scale necessary on the Arabian Sea.

Literally just the logistics of large scale landings is almost impossible.

That leaves the Kuwait / Iran border, and maybe something a bit wider.

And then fight through the mountains across the Gulf?

The thought is absurd, it's a 'major campaign theatre' - of which US forces were theoretically capable of fighting in two at once, but that's not pragmatic. That's 'wartime economy' kind of thing.

It's possible but unlikely that 10K marines and paratroopers are going to be able to do much, because it's very risky and likely won't accomplish much.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#23
post #21

I don't get that "Strait" discussion. Where does the Strait begin and end? If somehow the US Navy "opens" the Strait, what stops Iran to attack every ship moving in the direction of the Strait? Where does the "protection zone" start and end?

at a range where short-range anti-ship missiles can reach ships from Iranian territory.

And boats, amd submerged drones, and mines...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#24
The U.S. can't win this war. John Kiriakou did a nice analysis on this on his recent podcasts. "Iran just has to prolong the war and survive it to win". Trump on the other hand needs a decisive win fast, or the economic and political fallout will be too big. As long as Iran can launch cheap drones and keep a small but steady pressure there is just no path out of this for the U.S. except to go home.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#25

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

The brightest minds were systematically bullied out of position, called DEI hires or accused of random crimes.

They might not have been the best, but lets not pretend we're sending our brightest minds herw.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#26

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

To be fair, it was bright Chinese minds at ByteDance which worked on getting US teenagers addicted to TikTok videos.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#27

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

Would those "brightest minds" want to work for the current US government? Even if they did out of patriotism to the country, the Trump administration would have pushed them out by now and replaced with yes-men.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#28

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

This has definitely nothing to do with the subject at hand.

US Forces and Defence Complex have most of the talent they need.

Even with prevailing capabilities in many areas, it's not possible to do most things. Armies are not 'magic' - we're lulled into a false sense of understanding of capabilities by focusing to much on 'special forces' and other kinds of operations.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#30

Brightest minds of US were too focused on displaying ads and making teenagers addicted to tik tokies-like stuff instead of working security, defense, etc You couldve seen anti militsry industry sentiment on HN for years, which apparently worked for US adversaries, who knows who was behind that propaganda :) Inb4: im from eu

> im from eu

Yeah, the ultimate place of military preparedness.

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