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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#2
Not every war can be fought from air, there needs to be soldiers on the ground.

In fight against ISIS, the Iraqi amry, Shia Militias, Kurds and others were ground forces while Allies were in Air. In Afghanistan & Gulf War, US forces were on ground.

But in these "conflict", no party is ready to send ground forces, ground forces to stop the air drones, ship drones etc. So the "blockade" will probably continue.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#6
At the heart of this is the fact that America has lost the capability to manufacture anything at scale.

High tech interceptors and missiles and aircraft carriers are great, but with China's help these are outnumbered by three (soon to be four) orders of magnitude.

It's unclear if we can do much other than threaten sanctions and nukes, with not much in between.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#8
post #2

Not every war can be fought from air, there needs to be soldiers on the ground. In fight against ISIS, the Iraqi amry, Shia Militias, Kurds and others were ground forces while Allies were in Air. In Afghanistan & Gulf War, US forces were on ground. But in these "conflict", no party is ready to send ground forces, ground forces to stop the air drones, ship drones etc. So the "blockade" will probably continue.

> the "blockade" will probably continue

The part that makes the Strait weird is no belligerent wants it entirely closed. (Maybe Israel.) Iran wants to export. And America wants exports. So you get this weird stalemate where America doesn’t want to actually blockade Iran, while Iran seems to do just enough to keep America from actually shutting the Strait.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#9
post #6

At the heart of this is the fact that America has lost the capability to manufacture anything at scale. High tech interceptors and missiles and aircraft carriers are great, but with China's help these are outnumbered by three (soon to be four) orders of magnitude. It's unclear if we can do much other than threaten sanctions and nukes, with not much in between.

> America has lost the capability to manufacture anything at scale

We make plenty of stuff at scale. We just haven’t designed any of military around it since WWII.

> unclear if we can do much other than threaten sanctions and nukes

We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#10
Whether or not professional military strategists and planners anticipated this shift in carrier-based projection of power in the era of low-cost drones, it is nearly certain that the Commander-in-Chief of the United States military has not. And if the Commander is involved in the either the day-to-day operations or the strategic level of planning, I can’t imagine that whatever reasoning about these shifts in power dynamics has taken place will influence U.S. operations.
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