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Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

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Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#51

Post by javert »

rayiner wrote: post #41

I think this is a great answer to people who ask why we still need things like affirmative action. Here you have a continuing demographic phenomenon that can be traced directly back to slave ownership patterns hundreds of years ago. It should be noted also that the black belt is also a terribly poor stretch of the country. Unfortunately, it appears that socioeconomic patterns are imprinted more deeply than anyone wou…

How do you get from "more black people live in areas where there were more productive plantations" to "we need affirmative action"?

(The answer is, you don't.)

Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#52

Post by samspot »

vm wrote: post #36
tosseraccount wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or money+incumbency Roosevelt,Truman,Eisenhower,Johnson,Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,BushII all had plenty of time to plan for 2nd term. Of course so did Ford, Carter and Bush I. There may not be enough samples to get a good p-value, but more often than not the recipe of "just don't mess up too bad" gets a another term for a sitting President.

Paul Graham wrote an essay on this. The most charismatic candidate is elected, every time: http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html

"Of course your president is an actor, he's got to look good on TV!"

-Emmett "Doc" Brown

Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#53

Post by gojomo »

vm wrote: post #36
tosseraccount wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or money+incumbency Roosevelt,Truman,Eisenhower,Johnson,Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,BushII all had plenty of time to plan for 2nd term. Of course so did Ford, Carter and Bush I. There may not be enough samples to get a good p-value, but more often than not the recipe of "just don't mess up too bad" gets a another term for a sitting President.

Paul Graham wrote an essay on this. The most charismatic candidate is elected, every time: http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html

I suspect taking office makes a candidate seem more charismatic in retrospect, an example of a choice-supportive bias:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias

Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#54

Post by rabid_fish »

brudgers wrote: post #28
tosseraccount wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or money+incumbency Roosevelt,Truman,Eisenhower,Johnson,Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,BushII all had plenty of time to plan for 2nd term. Of course so did Ford, Carter and Bush I. There may not be enough samples to get a good p-value, but more often than not the recipe of "just don't mess up too bad" gets a another term for a sitting President.

Iowa is where Obama upset the presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton four years ago. It is overwhelmingly made up of a constituencies which tend to vote Republican. Not only did he win the caucuses, he flipped the state in the general election and carried it by a substantial margin in his reelection. If you ever go to Iowa, you won't see many people likely to vote for Obama on the basis of racial affinity.

I can't help but reply to this thread.

I grew up in L.A., came to Iowa for college and stayed. Am now in my late 30's. Was not affiliated with any party when I caucused for Obama the first go 'round.

Iowa is an interesting political crossroads for the nation. We have a large percentage of the population above 65 - 15% (http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-09.pdf) - and still rural - 36% as of 2010 (http://www.iowadatacenter.org/quickfacts). We are somewhat socially liberal - gay rights are making headway here - and fiscally conservative - our state sales tax is 6%.

Our racial makeup is predominantly caucasian, but we have been welcoming minorities and they are on the increase. Hispanic, Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbians, Chinese, Ethiopians, etc continue to migrate here and are well represented at my children's school.

Where am I going with this? Iowans as a whole are hardworking people who are very giving of their time and want what's best for the country. We are accepting of others opinions and able to hold rational political discussions. And I think most of us are sick of gridlock in Washington and can see through the political BS (for example, all the posturing during the last round of federal budgeting). The older registered Republicans I've talked with over the last couple of years have told me they can see that Obama has been trying to work with Republican politicians, and it's not his fault things aren't getting done. That's why we re-elected him.

I think Iowa does a good job of being at the center of the U.S., both geographically and politically.

Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#55

Post by Tyrannosaurs »

vm wrote: post #36
tosseraccount wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or money+incumbency Roosevelt,Truman,Eisenhower,Johnson,Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,BushII all had plenty of time to plan for 2nd term. Of course so did Ford, Carter and Bush I. There may not be enough samples to get a good p-value, but more often than not the recipe of "just don't mess up too bad" gets a another term for a sitting President.

Paul Graham wrote an essay on this. The most charismatic candidate is elected, every time: http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html

If true worth noting that while this may not be unique to the US, it's certainly not universal.

Hollande beating Sarckozy in France recently would be a pretty solid counter example, similarly John Major winning in the UK in 1992 (Kinnock was no Kennedy but next to Major anyone looks charismatic).

Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#56

Post by aamar »

vm wrote: post #36
tosseraccount wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or money+incumbency Roosevelt,Truman,Eisenhower,Johnson,Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,BushII all had plenty of time to plan for 2nd term. Of course so did Ford, Carter and Bush I. There may not be enough samples to get a good p-value, but more often than not the recipe of "just don't mess up too bad" gets a another term for a sitting President.

Paul Graham wrote an essay on this. The most charismatic candidate is elected, every time: http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html

The theory does accord with the last several general elections, but it doesn't seem to accord with primaries. For example, Herman Cain, Howard Dean, and Mike Huckabee all lost out to less charismatic candidates. Since primaries are now decided on a similar basis to general elections--debate performance, fundraising, retail politics--it seems like these data points ought to be included.

Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#58

Post by chiph »

arethuza wrote: post #2

I've been fascinated with geology ever since I realised that it is really history on an epic scale (living in Edinburgh also helps) - one book that really opened my eyes to the subject is Richard Fortey's The Earth: An Intimate History : http://www.amazon.com/Earth-Intimate-History-Richard-Fortey/...

In South Carolina, that line is called the Orangeburg Scarp. It is where the coastline used to be millions of years ago. Driving westward from the coast, you'll encounter a series of steep hills these days as you gain elevation.

If the Garner-Edisto fault line ever lets go in a major way, you want to be on the western side of it, to avoid the anticipated Tsunami.

Re: Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old

#60

Post by brown9-2 »

brudgers wrote: post #10

Considering that Obama was trounced in those states and thus won no votes in the Electorial College, it is hardly a "secret weapon." Were it one, the consistency of its Democratic lean in previous elections, would call into question that it was his. The article just promotes an ignorant sort of racial understanding while missing the really curious relationship between agriculture and his campaigns. Obama's secret wea…

Trounced? He only lost South Carolina by 10 points, and Georgia by only 8. Some of these states are not as deep-red as were once thought.
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