41–50 of 277 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not really convinced this data falsifies the narrative of a slow erosion. It's just the Pareto principle in action. I bet if you graphed the erosion of a hill you'd see the same pattern.
Slowly and then all at once, as they say
This article over and over describes inflation as a tax or destruction, without backing those claims up. It would be a much stronger article if it focused on the main point rather than having it interspersed with the author's personal opinion of changes in the denominator of a fraction.
C'mon. Whether you agree or not, any time spent in the field will expose you to this philosophy. If you disagree, ignore. There's no need to go through implicit ideas.
This supports my hunch that the current Iran war creates a lethal trifecta that could potentially cause a dollar collapse. 1. Massive military overspend. 2. Petrodollar squeeze (Strait of Hormuz). 3. Allies pulling out: Europe and the Gulf diversifying both their investments and defense purchases. #1 creates oversupply of dollars and #2 and #3 lower demand. This study supports the idea that wars can indeed destroy pu…
Iran is also playing its own Uno card here by saying that it would consider allowing some oil and gas shipments through the Strait if they have been bought with Chinese Yuan, than the US dollar. ( The Islamic Republic may grant safe passage to oil tankers if the cargo is traded in Chinese yuan - https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/iran-allow-chinese-ships-hormu... ).
If anything the data points at "inflation targeting works and is producing slow and steady inflation" rather than "inflation comes in concentrated bursts".
Note that most of this period falls before the modern inflation target was established in 1995. In the past 30 years we've had 75% accumulated annual inflation (aka prices have increased be a factor of exp(0.75) = 2.1) of which 16% (aka 21% of the total) took place during an inflation excursion (which lasted 2.5 years aka 8% of the total time period). If anything the data points at "inflation targeting works and is p…
In 1971, the United States ended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively bringing the Bretton Woods system to an end and rendering the dollar a fiat currency.
This allowed for the global reserve currency to float which allowed for global credit expansion at the cost of the dollar value but with the benefit of more overall dollars (monetary velocity increasing)
This is what politicians want because it makes the dollar printing machine the most powerful thing, hence why everyone hung on the fedchair words every few months.
So the USD is already hyperinflated but the price relative to other currencies is still high.
Once that price collapses (and it eventually will and increasingly soon) the entire US will look like the rust belt.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Iran is also playing its own Uno card here by saying that it would consider allowing some oil and gas shipments through the Strait if they have been bought with Chinese Yuan, than the US dollar. ( The Islamic Republic may grant safe passage to oil tankers if the cargo is traded in Chinese yuan - https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/iran-allow-chinese-ships-hormu... ).
This is particularly funny if you consider petrodollar to be a bad deal for US, not a good one. Ironically, if yuan becomes new petroleum currency, it might hurt Chinese long term.
> Instead, $100 in 1914 is worth $3.05 today. Doesn't that mean $3.05 in 1914 us worth $100 today?
I'm pretty sure you are right. Or to emphasize the devaluation, "$100 today would be worth only $3.05 in 1914." I think it is astonishing that we accept that in a best case scenario of sustained 2% inflation, we are literally planning for the value of the dollar to be cut in half every 36 years.
This supports my hunch that the current Iran war creates a lethal trifecta that could potentially cause a dollar collapse. 1. Massive military overspend. 2. Petrodollar squeeze (Strait of Hormuz). 3. Allies pulling out: Europe and the Gulf diversifying both their investments and defense purchases. #1 creates oversupply of dollars and #2 and #3 lower demand. This study supports the idea that wars can indeed destroy pu…