I love this ending. I don't agree with author's views. But the article is very coherent, thought provoking. And definitely the comments here on HN are even more interesting.
The Cognitive Dark Forest
221–230 of 301 posts
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't want to go too far down the conspiracy rabbit hole, but the vendors know everyone's prompts so it would be trivial for them to track the trackers and spoof the results. We already know that they substitute different models as a cost-saving measure, so substituting models to fool the repeated evaluations would be trivial. We also already know that they actively seek out viral examples of poor performance on ce…
If a claim is unfalsifiable, it contains no information
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#223Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#224I guess not many people know but app templates for Uber, AirBnb etc. have been around for years now. You don’t even have to prompt. It’s sitting on the shelf, complete. “Execution is hard” was never about the code part. Up until 2 years ago I was an engineer/entrepreneur. I could build anything. Other stuff, selling, supporting (execution) was hard. LLMs made building some of the things I could build faster/easier, o…
Couldn't agree more. The opportunity cost of executing something is maintaining it. And that's where the real cost lies. Big companies won't execute our ideas because they need maintain everything that they execute. Plus, the cost of modifying something that was executed itself is also very high at a big company.
Coding has always been the easy bit.
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#225Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#226For better or worse, that pretty much captures everthing you need to know about the remainder of your s/w career these days, if you think about it
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#227Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#228Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't buy the analogy. The problem with Kessler syndrome is that low earth orbit is physically crowded, you run into collisions. I don't care about the garbage. I don't care about the AI era. I've been writing code in Emacs for 20 years, I'll be writing code in Emacs in 20 years, every open source project I contribute to still looks the same because all these AI people, like the blockchain people do is just make ne…
> I've been writing code in Emacs for 20 years, I'll be writing code in Emacs in 20 years Bold assumption. On what will you run Emacs if average PC costs $12000? Yes. Even Raspberry Pi. It's not called war on general computing for nothing. If you say the cloud, that will be cut up and reused by the next AI crawler.
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#230Dark forest makes no sense to me. Why would a civilization eradicate another, spending huge amounts of resources (time, energy, material) when the universe has such an enormous scale that you cannot even get to each other in a timescale that makes much sense...
Makes some sense to me, as the prisoner's dilemma dictates at least some fraction will try to kill you. So you've got to go first. Reminds me of the Dan Carlin take on aircraft carriers in World War II: if you in a carrier spotted an opposing carrier and didn't send everything you had before it spotted you, you were dead. The only move was to go all in every time.