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1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

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Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#21

Post by MyHonestOpinon »

bombcar wrote: post #17
altmanaltman wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1929-style crash was accompanied by mass unemployment (~25%), meaning people were often forced to sell at the bottom precisely because they had no income. You can't "hold" if you're selling assets to eat. Also just because it recovered in the past doesn't mean it'll follow the same trajectory in the future.

Because we know of the '29 crash, the next one will always be different. Arguably the GFC was way worse, but way different.

right. And because we know of the crashes of 2022, 2008, 2001, etc. the market is showing a lot more resiliency. Which is good, but it will take longer to have a correction. Which may be bad by itself.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#22

Post by MyHonestOpinon »

jmclnx wrote: post #5
tartoran wrote: post #3

We may see it again soon

I hope not, my parents were teenagers at the time, my fathers life was terrible back then, he had to join the CCC to survive and to help out his family. He had told me working with the CCC was not a bed of roses and he saw many terrible accidents to some of the workers. But he was glad it existed. Also, back then, I believe people were on average stronger and more resilient people alive today. Having such a crash wil…

Today I learned about the Civilian Conservation Corps. (CCC)

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#23

Post by Spooky23 »

bitwank wrote: post #6
simonsarris wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's made a lot of predictions: Apple will acquire Disney (recent), Microsoft will acquire Yahoo (mid 2000s), we'd have a "hard landing" in 2023/2024. None of these have turned out true. It's especially hard to meaningfully evaluate claims of crashes.

Even if there was a 29 style crash, assuming you can hold for 20 or so years, less than the length of most home mortgages, you would still come out ahead. Not that it wouldn’t be painful for seniors and those who are middle age and not well diversified, but it’s hard to not see a US crash as a buying opportunity for international capital.

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Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#25

Post by Spooky23 »

MyHonestOpinon wrote: post #21
bombcar wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we know of the '29 crash, the next one will always be different. Arguably the GFC was way worse, but way different.

right. And because we know of the crashes of 2022, 2008, 2001, etc. the market is showing a lot more resiliency. Which is good, but it will take longer to have a correction. Which may be bad by itself.

Stabilizing from those crashes were all about the injecting liquidity and faith and credit in the US Treasury. Hoover didn’t handle the events subsequent to 1929 well, but more out of ignorance than malice.

In 2026, the POTUS, his family and friends are looting the treasury with brazen acts of fraud. The government is buying losing futures contracts to manipulate oil and other markets, and “mysterious people” are buying securities before scheduled, secret events to profit from it.

The US assassinated the leaders of a hostile power after they essentially gave in to our demands.

We eliminated the governments experts in a variety of strategic topics including oil, and installed toadies to run the fiscal service that disburses government funds.

People are working on undermining the FDIC and decapitating social security.

So a crash now is really disturbing. Nobody can have the level of confidence in the faith and credit of the United States as we did in 2008. The people who understand the complex issues have been purged by the government, and the rest of the leadership is complicit in criminality and is counting on loyalty to secure pardons for later. So you should be anxious.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#26

Post by UncleOxidant »

jmclnx wrote: post #5
tartoran wrote: post #3

We may see it again soon

I hope not, my parents were teenagers at the time, my fathers life was terrible back then, he had to join the CCC to survive and to help out his family. He had told me working with the CCC was not a bed of roses and he saw many terrible accidents to some of the workers. But he was glad it existed. Also, back then, I believe people were on average stronger and more resilient people alive today. Having such a crash wil…

More people back then knew how to survive by growing their own food, making (and mending) their own clothes, etc. Many were only a generation or two away from farm living where those kinds of skills were just part of every day existence.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#28

Post by minkeymaniac »

bitwank wrote: post #6
simonsarris wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's made a lot of predictions: Apple will acquire Disney (recent), Microsoft will acquire Yahoo (mid 2000s), we'd have a "hard landing" in 2023/2024. None of these have turned out true. It's especially hard to meaningfully evaluate claims of crashes.

Even if there was a 29 style crash, assuming you can hold for 20 or so years, less than the length of most home mortgages, you would still come out ahead. Not that it wouldn’t be painful for seniors and those who are middle age and not well diversified, but it’s hard to not see a US crash as a buying opportunity for international capital.

It went down 89% Between 1929 And 1932, it took 25 years to close above 400 again. https://denisgobo.blogspot.com/2008/12/how-long-did-it-take-... Of course with Dollar-Cost Averaging you will be buying at the low until as well

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#29

Post by weakened_malloc »

MyHonestOpinon wrote: post #21
bombcar wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we know of the '29 crash, the next one will always be different. Arguably the GFC was way worse, but way different.

right. And because we know of the crashes of 2022, 2008, 2001, etc. the market is showing a lot more resiliency. Which is good, but it will take longer to have a correction. Which may be bad by itself.

I definitely don't think it's a case of more market resiliency but rather a case of central banks willing to act much more aggressively to respond to these things. This is often what Ben Bernanke argues, given he wrote his thesis on the '29 crash, and how he handled the '08 crisis.
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