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A new algorithm predicts which Twitter topics will trend hours in advance

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Re: A new algorithm predicts which Twitter topics will trend hours in advance

#22
post #12

This seems like a great trending topic detection algorithm, but nothing revolutionary. The "hours in advance" part is probably more to do with the scale of twitter's data and their decisions about when to publish topics on their website than it does the novelty of the approach. It seems like a great and tested method for developing your own trending topics algorithm, which could be useful in other contexts. I wonder…

This is something I would spend money on. Does anyone know if such an Exchange/Gmail plugin exists?

Re: A new algorithm predicts which Twitter topics will trend hours in advance

#23
post #9

Does the algorithm still work when it includes it's own effects? If an algorithm like this was widely used, the predicted topics will trend just because they have been picked -- the algorithm will fulfill the prophecy itself.

Exactly. I was also thinking that Finacial Engineering also tries to garner the advantage of statistical analysis of stock market based on previous trends. But I am sure there is no 100% accurate model. Moreover statistical model need to be changed as behavior start changing.

I wonder if that will reflect here as well.

In any case, It has some interesting applications as they mentioned in ticketing.

Re: A new algorithm predicts which Twitter topics will trend hours in advance

#25
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was my initial thoughts. Might this be a potential way to monetize twitter finally?

Could you elaborate please? Are you refering to the "early access" to trending topics, or restricting limits on API?

Funnily enough, Twitter could already sell 'early access' without any new algorithms. Just time shift the availability of results based on payment status. So for £100, see things that are guaranteed to be trending next hour, because they're technically trending now, but we're withholding it.

Re: A new algorithm predicts which Twitter topics will trend hours in advance

#26
post #13

I'm bookmarking this to read later, but how much more sophisticated does the algorithm have to be than: 1) Create a list of 500 - 1000 active, relatively popular Twitter users: this would eliminate most celebrities who only tweet casually or delegate it to their PR people...presumably, by the time they tweet something, it's already huge. 2) Segregate the sample group of Twitter users into cliques 3) When any topic sp…

Do you think a Twitter trend which is a meme like #ReplaceAMovieTitleWithBed will be detected using this scheme?
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