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AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

theguardian.com

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Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#61
post #23

"Three clicks convert a data point on the map into a formal detection and move it into a targeting pipeline. These targets then move through columns representing different decision-making processes and rules of engagement. The system recommends how to strike each target – which aircraft, drone or missile to use, which weapon to pair with it – what the military calls a “course of action”. The officer selects from the…

I couldn't find a web site for the school when I searched for one and I also noticed that while schools are generally marked on Google Maps in Iran this school was not. Both are IMO not really relevant or reliable sources of targeting data anyways. I found very little evidence searching online for the school but I did find something that looked like a blog about a school trip. Again though the Internet is not a reliable source of data for targeting - should be obvious.

The main way targets should/would be selected is by direct intelligence. E.g. the targets should be identified through satellite or other observations. It's hard to imagine that a building that has operated for some length of time as a school would not have patterns that are visible from satellite vs. military facilities with different patterns. You also don't just randomly attack structures in this sort of surprise attack, you're presumably aiming for some specific people or equipment with some priority/military goal in mind, so you really want to have observed the targets and patterns and have up to date information on their usage.

I think what likely happened here is that the entire base was the "unit" of targeting and the mistake was in identifying which buildings were part of the base. In the satellite view the military buildings and the school look very similar (since the building as I understand it used to be part of the base but was repurposed as a school).

It's not true that whoever made the error had all the time in the world. Presumably once the order was given there was time pressure given that the strike was to be timed with the other intelligence.

In theory the US military should/is supposed to have good processes around this stuff. So we are told. Obviously failed in this case. It is a tragedy.

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#62
post #48
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case, they would have discovered it was a school with a Google search, basically. There’s no excuse.

I'm pretty sure this is the school that was on the corner of a military base, and the school building hit was previously part of the military base.

Does that make it not a school, somehow? Or are we cool with killing kids just because their parents might be in the military? I'm not clear what the excuse being made actually is.

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#63
post #14

You know how that was done with a Tomahawk They've now burnt though almost ONE THOUSAND of those They cost $4 million each, so that's another $4 BILLION that has to be replaced too Imagine several more months of that or even through 2029

So far, they are not funded to do this for that long. They have floated a $200B bill to congress, which made national news coverage. It would start a huge, prolonged fight over the war and actually force them to ask permission from congress to fight it (barring totally disregarding the constitution which is still a possibility). Unfortunately I can very well imagine several more months and years of this. We are still…

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Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#64
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the Washington Post and the Guardian articles agree that the system used here was Maven. The key sentence in that Washington Post article appears to be: > The Pentagon began to integrate Anthropic’s Claude chatbot into Maven in late 2024, according to public announcements. As far as I can tell this is the public announcement - a press release from November 2024: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241107699…

We know that Palantir used AI for target selection in Gaza: https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/ We know that it integrated Claude and Claude was deemed to be a supply chain risk just before the Iran war . So it is not a huge mental leap to assume what it is being used for. You won't get an answer from Hegseth. This Guardian "article" is by a Substack blogger who also does not have answers.

That article you are quoting there is from April 2024. The Claude + Palantir deal was announced in November 2024.

The "supply chain risk" claims came from a deeply non-serious executive team who don't like "woke AI". They're not credible.

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#65
post #19

You can't have a serious discussion of this bombing without addressing the information warfare component. To this day we don't know what actually happened . Between the general public and the facts, there are many middlemen, all with their own distorting factor: the IRGC; the US government; western press outlets such as the Guardian; and the people quoted by the press. IRGC is making claims that no other party can ve…

> To this day we don't know what actually happened. I feel like we know enough already. A school was bombed, the ones who did it sucks big time and should be held responsible. Currently, the US and Israel is waging a war against Iran, and one of them dropped the bomb(s), unless suddenly Iran got their hands on American weapons, then that needs to be investigated too, because someone surely dropped the ball at that po…

I think it's likely that the explosion was caused by a US strike. But we don't actually know for sure that that's what happened - the US government has not confirmed it.

We also don't know anything about casualties - we only have the IRGC statements, and they are not reliable.

> Have those investigations been launched?

Yes, according to the US government, an investigation is underway. But its starting point is determining what caused the explosion.

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#66
post #23

"Three clicks convert a data point on the map into a formal detection and move it into a targeting pipeline. These targets then move through columns representing different decision-making processes and rules of engagement. The system recommends how to strike each target – which aircraft, drone or missile to use, which weapon to pair with it – what the military calls a “course of action”. The officer selects from the…

I recommend looking closely at the New York Times analysis. There were factors that might have mitigated this as a strike target, but it also really did look like a part of the compound (and it originally was!). Yes, with hindsight, we can definitively know, and with sufficient time each target could probably have been positively ID'd, but there was precisely one mis-strike in 1000s of sorties, so this already is a l…

>>I recommend looking closely at the New York Times analysis. There were factors that might have mitigated this as a strike target, but it also really did look like a part of the compound (and it originally was!).

What a ridiculous take. What does "originally was" mean? Maybe you wanna say "previously was"? That building was converted to a school 10 years ago! The intelligence they relied on is 10 years old!!!!! It's recklessness and stupidity dressed as bravery and courage.

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#67

[flagged]

Check out this example: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjw4egp7lwno

"As we pass through Khan Shaykhun, we come across a street painted in the colours of the Iranian flag. It leads to a school building that was being used as an Iranian headquarters." "On the wall at the entrance of the toilets, slogans read: "Down with Israel" and "Down with the USA".

It was evident that these headquarters were also evacuated at short notice. We found documents classified as "highly sensitive"."

This is a BBC reporter reporting from Syria after the fall of Assad.

It is strategy for the IRGC and Hamas to operate from civilian infrastructure like schools to gain immunity. That's what's "not a human error".

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#68
post #14

You know how that was done with a Tomahawk They've now burnt though almost ONE THOUSAND of those They cost $4 million each, so that's another $4 BILLION that has to be replaced too Imagine several more months of that or even through 2029

Don’t worry. The Saudis and UAE will happily pay all costs of the war.

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#69
post #23

"Three clicks convert a data point on the map into a formal detection and move it into a targeting pipeline. These targets then move through columns representing different decision-making processes and rules of engagement. The system recommends how to strike each target – which aircraft, drone or missile to use, which weapon to pair with it – what the military calls a “course of action”. The officer selects from the…

I recommend looking closely at the New York Times analysis. There were factors that might have mitigated this as a strike target, but it also really did look like a part of the compound (and it originally was!). Yes, with hindsight, we can definitively know, and with sufficient time each target could probably have been positively ID'd, but there was precisely one mis-strike in 1000s of sorties, so this already is a l…

How many American schoolchildren have Iran killed in the last 25 years? How many Iranian schoolchildren have America killed?

Where's your moral justification for this war of choice if "oops, 137 dead kids is a normal expected outcome"?

Re: AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is more worrying

#70
post #23

"Three clicks convert a data point on the map into a formal detection and move it into a targeting pipeline. These targets then move through columns representing different decision-making processes and rules of engagement. The system recommends how to strike each target – which aircraft, drone or missile to use, which weapon to pair with it – what the military calls a “course of action”. The officer selects from the…

Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

https://houseofsaud.com/iran-war-ai-psychosis-sycophancy-rlh...

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