We have the 'official' stock (prediction) market regulated by the SEC, FINRA, CFTC, ... , yet (allegedly) insider trading isn't unheard of. We have the more recent crypto (prediction) markets with (allegedly) complete market manipulation where those same regulators stepped in after being woken up late to the party. Now we have these 'open range' prediction markets with the CFTC wrestling for getting a toe in without stepping on those of the casino, sports betting, Native American gaming, lotteries ... interests?
We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
531–540 of 741 posts
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#532There is a class of prediction markets that are useful and seem immune to most of these problems : play money prediction markets. I've been enjoying them for years; I feel they provide a useful service to understand what is going on in the world, and they don't seem to provide the perverse incentives that we are seeing here. Oh, and they seem to work just as well.
These "competitive forecasting" platforms seem very interesting. What do you need to be good at this sort of skill?
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#533Half-OT: when does gambling become safe?
I mean, insurance is basically basically betting that bad things happen to you.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#534Is there a site which implements the ideas behind the file Indecent Proposal[1]? It would be a site where folks could start auctions based on stuff they want from other folks. So Bob wants Janes jumper. He goes onto the site, creates an auction with an initial offer of $5. Jane is informed that Bob wants to buy her jumper. She turns down the offer. Bob raises his offer to $10. She declines the offer. Then Cane joins…
that's just darkweb stuff right?
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#535More doomer takes. The world survived two world wars and a cold war. This stuff is nothing. Engagement bait as usual.
> Oh, you think (bad thing) might happen? Why do you even care when (worse thing) happened in the past? Checkmate! I am very intelligent. gr8 b8 m8 i r8 8/8
vintage meme
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#536There is a class of prediction markets that are useful and seem immune to most of these problems : play money prediction markets. I've been enjoying them for years; I feel they provide a useful service to understand what is going on in the world, and they don't seem to provide the perverse incentives that we are seeing here. Oh, and they seem to work just as well.
Prediction markets are just fine IF they have some means of regulation against insider trading and perverse incentives. This phase is the same thing derivatives markets looked like before the 2008 crisis and Dodd-Frank, and several other waves before that of crisis and reform (Securities Act, Market Reform Act). Every new financial medium gets its moment in the sun when all the crooks extract everything they can, bef…
> This phase is the same thing derivatives markets looked like before the 2008 crisis and Dodd-Frank, and several other waves before that of crisis and reform (Securities Act, Market Reform Act).
Just because a rule was created after something bad happened doesn't mean that the rule is effective to prevent it from happening again. The most common result when they try to ban something without removing the incentive for it to happen is to cause it to happen less obviously. Then the rule (and all its unfortunate costs) gets credited with not observing the bad thing anymore, even though that's not the same as actually preventing it.
Notice that you can use the stock market in the same way as a prediction market. After that healthcare CEO got murdered the company's stock took a hit, as anyone could reasonably have predicted it would. That's a perverse incentive in line with betting that someone will kill the CEO. We don't really have a great way of preventing stock trading from creating that incentive, we mostly just rely on the fact that if you do the murder then murder is very illegal. But if that works for the stock market then why doesn't it work for prediction markets?
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#537I got into weather betting markets earlier this year since I figured those can't possibly be rigged, it is automated weather station data yet some groups in the market know the truth a few minutes before everyone else based on the way the markets move. BUT, I stopped on the day that the PHL airport preliminary report said the low of the day was 17 and then later than day the low was raised to 18. The way the market w…
Absolutely every single thing you could ever bet on can be rigged.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#538https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/court-idf-reser... This was just on the news: "A reservist suspected of using classified information to place bets on the Polymarket prediction site served as a major in the Israeli Air Force, a Tel Aviv Court reveals. The defendant was indicted alongside his alleged accomplice last month on severe security offenses, as well as bribery and obstruction of justice, after the…
In addition to this article, I've recently read this one [1], where the reported received numerous violence and death threats from people who wanted him to change the a story he published to match what they bet on Polymarket.
[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-o...
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#539Earlier quoted context omitted.
Morals start and stop somewhere, please don't attack people when they actually show some proper morals on this forum despite the employment of many members here.
It depends, if the morals cause more harm than they prevent, then no, the people espousing those "morals" don't deserve respect. They should be treated as naive which is what they are. Also, this is why we have the phrase, "virtual signaling" which specifically means a "moral" which causes more harm than good and seems to exist mostly to make the speaker seem more ethical than they actually are. Ignorance isn't a vir…
Can you provide examples of morals that cause more harm than they prevent?
Why do you think virtue signaling causes harm?
Can you explain the relevance of 'ignorance isn't a virtue'?
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#540pennywagers seemed reasonable but has shut down.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30163868
> We give users a little bit of money each week to play with ($0.50 right now) and if they can run it up past a certain point we'll pay them out in cash. If they lose the money, we put another $0.50 in the next week. It's legal in the US since the users aren't allowed to deposit and mainly for entertainment purposes.