Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 741 posts

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#221

Post by matt_daemon »

jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

Same in Australia and only recently (that is, in the last year) has there been any restrictions on showing gambling ads during live sports events.

It’s difficult to compare how normalised it is here versus what the US is currently going through.

As for sportspeople throwing games, well that’s been happening for as long as betting has been around as well, see countless examples from football (soccer) and cricket.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#222

Post by zug_zug »

socalgal2 wrote: post #194
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

Well I think a good way to differentiate things that are guilty-pleasures like a twinky and gambling is to take a survey of people and see what % say "I wish I had never ever gambled in the first place" vs "I wish I never had been allowed to buy twinkies"

It'd actually be quite easy to set certain sane limits on gambling like you can't gamble more than 1% of your annual income per year, but I bet gambling platforms would fight that like the plague because those are their whales, the true addicts.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#223

Post by beejiu »

Ferret7446 wrote: post #101
hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

Actually, prediction markets are closer to stock markets (insofar as you consider stock trading to be gambling). Insider trading is the bigger issue

Prediction markets are nothing like stock markets. Maybe they are more like binary options markets. In the UK for example, these were for a long time regulated as a gambling product, and for the past 7 years have been banned to retail consumers.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#224

Post by Gigachad »

cubefox wrote: post #135
Gigachad wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prediction markets are just inside traders profiting off gambling addicts. If you are not an inside trader, you're the loser paying out.

Or you are simply better at predicting the future than most other people.

I’m sure that’s what the gambling addicts like to tell themselves.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#225

Post by joe_mamba »

matt_daemon wrote: post #221
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

Same in Australia and only recently (that is, in the last year) has there been any restrictions on showing gambling ads during live sports events. It’s difficult to compare how normalised it is here versus what the US is currently going through. As for sportspeople throwing games, well that’s been happening for as long as betting has been around as well, see countless examples from football (soccer) and cricket.

>Same in Australia and only recently

AFAIK Australia is most gambling addicted western country, loosing the most money per capita at the pokies.

>It’s difficult to compare how normalised it is here versus what the US is currently going through.

I remember how Henry Ford was giving his employee great benefits to attract the best workers so the Dodge brothers bought Ford shares to become shareholders, then sued Henry Ford and won because he wasn't doing what's good for the shareholders.

Similarly, I feel like if you'd try to regulate these anti humane businesses and practices you'd get sued because you're doing something that hurts shareholders.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#226

Post by AnimalMuppet »

echelon wrote: post #20
tptacek wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I'm talking about things like hurricanes and earthquakes and forest fires, not running death pools.

> forest fires Fire bug > earthquakes Dynamite the fault > hurricanes Crazy, but, hear me out: mirrors in space warming the Atlantic, mirrors in Africa warming the atmosphere ("solar power"), Trump wanting to nuke a hurricane, etc. Pandemic? Go harvest bats and put them in a cage with chickens. You don't even need a molecular bio lab. Stock market crash? Bombs. Terrorist attacks. Energy prices? Derail a train carryin…

Dynamite the fault? I presume you haven't seriously thought about how much dynamite it would take and how deeply you'd have to plant it.

Mirrors in space? Again, have you done the math? How many thousands of acres of mirrors would you need, how many rockets would it take, and how much would they cost? Could you make enough on the betting market to break even?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#227

Post by brailsafe »

socalgal2 wrote: post #194
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

I agree, to a point, but it seems like this is the false dilemma that comes up every time, meanwhile there are achohol, fast food, and gambling ads imbued in nearly all popular entertainment and everywhere in public.

Is severely restricting the marketing of those things not a valid step in between having or not having liberties? For an adult to be free to engage in gambling, does insidious advertising also need to be permitted everywhere? If say 25% of people engaging with a highly addictive activity can't responsibly regulate their behavior with it, is it important that we allow a contingent of everyone else to abuse them?

I think about it like property rights and others. If we want everyone to respect the idea of private property ownership, then policy should act to contain abuse of those rights and somewhat fairly distribute access to them. If only an older richer generation benefits, and everyone else pays rent and effectively has to give up those rights, then eventually opposition to them should accumulate. I'm much more interested now in seeing bans on the ownership of multiple residential properties within the same municipality at present, and sympathizing with people seeking a market crash, than I am to actually try and buy a house, because the ratio is so wildly in favor of one group over another.

If only 25% of people didn't know someone who ruined their life gambling—and it's only a matter of time—then it would be potentially acted upon much more severely.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#228

Post by kqr »

cowpig wrote: post #126
pants2 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't that be said of stock markets and any markets? United Healthcare stock dropped 10% immediately after its CEO was killed.

Well, there are laws against insider trading.

Is shorting a company and then murdering its CEO considered insider trading in your jurisdiction?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#229

Post by throwaway7679 »

UqWBcuFx6NV4r wrote: post #127
bluetidepro wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. Can't say I agree with that specific take (and find it a bit naive to be honest), unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has.

[flagged]

Sibling comments are right. Refusing to hurt people is a crime against money.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#230

Post by cubefox »

adamandsteve wrote: post #203
cubefox wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you are simply better at predicting the future than most other people.

Being good at predicting the future will give you only a slight edge, so even a small amount of inside trading can make you unprofitable.

Being good at predicting is a broad skill which is applicable widely, while insider information only works for the specific thing the information is about. Far from every market will have insiders with special information. E.g. on who will win an election.
Post reply on HN