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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#71

Post by jacobgkau »

GenerWork wrote: post #35
sghiassy wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the insider betting that’s the problem. Not the intrinsic nature of gambling

You're always going to have some sort of insider leaks, and quite frankly I don't care if they make money off of it in a betting app. This isn't like the stock market which is a vehicle for wealth for hundreds of millions. Gambling/prediction markets are 100% optional to participate in and you should go in with the expectation that you're going to lose.

> Gambling/prediction markets are 100% optional to participate in and you should go in with the expectation that you're going to lose.

The stock market is 100% optional to participate in, and every broker tells you (is legally required to tell you, in fact) that you should go in with the expectation that you're going to lose money. That didn't stop whatever forces have made them essentially required to plan for the normal life stage of retirement these days.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#72

Post by pigeons »

paulddraper wrote: post #47
hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

It truly is insane. The CFTC is granting "no-action" exemptions on the basis of....nothing, really. The "educational" value of these markets.

On the basis of nothing, or on the basis of gifts and connections?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#74

Post by jakelazaroff »

yieldcrv wrote: post #23

> I don’t think people have thought hard enough about how bad this could get. given that the crypto anarchist papers from the 90s that these markets are built on are very well thought out instruction manuals about how bad it could get, this title implies users are gullible idiots as opposed to the creators and power users An individual's susceptibility to a vice is an individual problem. So I take issue with all the…

> An individual's susceptibility to a vice is an individual problem.

Maybe if you're Tom Hanks in Castaway. In real life, people contract lung damage from secondhand smoke; homes are mortgaged to fund gambling habits; families are destroyed by drunk drivers.

That's not to say that people can't partake in their vices responsibly. But the idea that any harms are limited to the person with the problem is just not true.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#75

Post by AStrangeMorrow »

GenerWork wrote: post #9

[flagged]

The issue is the combined risk of insider trading coupled with the bias of disaster-centric betting, or at least event-centric betting. This means if you have the means to create an “out of the ordinary” event you have a strong incentive to make it happen and to bet on it. These must be controllable events, so not natural or complex systems. On the gentler side it would be sports fixing, which has always existed. On the worse side it would be causing war, making economic decisions that will impact many, betting on people death and so on. These kind of things are seemingly already happening to a certain degree.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#76

Post by [deleted] »

heavyset_go wrote: post #26
hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

If I made a platform like that, I'd be RICO'd after the FBI kicked down my door and confiscated everything I own. If I had the connections Polymarket does, well, then we can just place bets on when people will die, everything will work out just fine and the President will invest in me.

[deleted]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#77

Post by dylan604 »

GenerWork wrote: post #35
sghiassy wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the insider betting that’s the problem. Not the intrinsic nature of gambling

You're always going to have some sort of insider leaks, and quite frankly I don't care if they make money off of it in a betting app. This isn't like the stock market which is a vehicle for wealth for hundreds of millions. Gambling/prediction markets are 100% optional to participate in and you should go in with the expectation that you're going to lose.

I don't use these platforms so I don't know how the bets are structured. If someone comes along and places a bet that looks very much like insider knowledge, can you only bet against or can you place bets with them like following the shooter in craps?

Betting against something that looks like an insider making the bet really is something willingly done. It's just a dumb bet.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#78

Post by tolerance »

blitzar wrote: post #62

Americans may be shocked to hear that in the rest of the world gambling has been a thing for centuries. We also have people under the age of 20 drinking alcohol. I am not suggesting in any way that gambling is good - but it wasnt invented last week in america

This posh HN culture war has gotta end.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#79

Post by jacobgkau »

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #7
tptacek wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with Thompson about these kinds of prediction markets, but predicting horrible catastrophes is one of the prosocial early use cases of these things.

Agreed, as long as it's a catastrophe that the bettors can't cause, but for which advance warning can mitigate harms. For instance, I'm in favor of bets that a certain astroid will strike the earth at a certain time and place. A signal from the prediction markets might cause somebody to evacuate in a scenario where they'd otherwise cry "fake news." Let's not bet on whether the water will remain drinkable, because the…

> For instance, I'm in favor of bets that a certain astroid will strike the earth at a certain time and place. A signal from the prediction markets might cause somebody to evacuate in a scenario where they'd otherwise cry "fake news."

I understand the point you're making, but in this case, you're still incentivizing someone somewhere to not attempt to the best of their ability to intervene in that astroid. Bets that truly can't cause any change in behavior that might affect the outcome are a mostly theoretical category, in my opinion.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#80

Post by dash2 »

yieldcrv wrote: post #66
dash2 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You put your own case powerfully, but you don’t seem to have reacted to Derek Thompson‘s case, except to say that you’re not bothered about gambling addiction. (And why not? If people predictably do things that are bad for themselves, that damages the efficiency case for free markets and everything.)

I did read his article, and there are the geopolitical events and the sporting events he talks about. I don't really understand why sports leagues require faith in their institution. Is the economy overleveraged on collateral debt swaps on league merchandise sells? Is our economy built on preteens in Nebraska believing their only way out of there is a worthwhile pursuit? I'm not sure why I am supposed to care about t…

Surely a big point of sport is to get young people to do healthy, character-building team activities. That requires sporting heroes they can look up to, rather than cheats who will throw a game for money.
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