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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

51–60 of 741 posts

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#52
Prediction market creators making the case that their existing is some sort of a market efficiency play is the most laughable thing I have ever heard.

SC made a mistake in the Draft King/Fan duel saga and has unleashed the worst kind of market, takes up may too much money and time especially from young people.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#53

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

And there is a kid’s legal version! They sell them in Walmart - Pokémon packs. I don’t know how any of this is legal in a civilized country.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the insider betting that’s the problem. Not the intrinsic nature of gambling

You're always going to have some sort of insider leaks, and quite frankly I don't care if they make money off of it in a betting app. This isn't like the stock market which is a vehicle for wealth for hundreds of millions. Gambling/prediction markets are 100% optional to participate in and you should go in with the expectation that you're going to lose.

> You're always going to have some sort of insider leaks, and quite frankly I don't care if they make money off of it in a betting app

Absolutely garbage take, to be quite honest with you. War profiteering is one of the most heinous crimes imaginable, and the last thing we need in this world is more opportunities for it. Regardless of whether the punters getting screwed consented to gambling or not, the problem is the perverse incentives it creates at the highest echelons of power. Abusing access to military intel for profit is foul behavior that will only degrade the quality of our governance and foreign policy, not to mention the literal lives that will be lost as a result.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#55

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

And there is a kid’s legal version! They sell them in Walmart - Pokémon packs. I don’t know how any of this is legal in a civilized country.

[deleted]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the insider betting that’s the problem. Not the intrinsic nature of gambling

You're always going to have some sort of insider leaks, and quite frankly I don't care if they make money off of it in a betting app. This isn't like the stock market which is a vehicle for wealth for hundreds of millions. Gambling/prediction markets are 100% optional to participate in and you should go in with the expectation that you're going to lose.

You're waving away the dangers of government officials having a financial incentive to take actions based not on societal well-being or integrity.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#57

Any sort of gambling should be limited to, say 20% of your average yearly tax (last 5 years). Prediction market should be banned.

That seems to imply concern for the gambler, who at least has chosen to play.

A much bigger problem might be when these markets bet on a meatspace event and then a bunch go out and try to influence innocents in meatspace, to great detriment of society. Like this journalist https://readwrite.com/threats-israeli-reporter-polymarket

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#58

> I don’t think people have thought hard enough about how bad this could get. given that the crypto anarchist papers from the 90s that these markets are built on are very well thought out instruction manuals about how bad it could get, this title implies users are gullible idiots as opposed to the creators and power users An individual's susceptibility to a vice is an individual problem. So I take issue with all the…

That’s a lot of words to tell everyone you don’t know what an “externality” is.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#59

[flagged]

> If you want to do it, do it. If you don't, then don't.

Three of the "four ways to lose" described in the article are significant harms inflicted on parties besides the bettors themselves. One cannot avoid these harms by not directly gambling.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#60

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

And there is a kid’s legal version! They sell them in Walmart - Pokémon packs. I don’t know how any of this is legal in a civilized country.

Don't forget the other children's gambling trainers:

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=claw+machine&ia=images&iax=...

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