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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#41

Post by HWR_14 »

cowpig wrote: post #17

Just game-theoretically, suppose you bet $100 on some disaster. That disaster causes $10,000,000 of harm, but only causes you $90 of harm individually. You've gained $10, but your $10 gain is a millionth of the harm caused. Generally-speaking, there's an enormous asymmetry between the cost to create/build and the cost to destroy. So now we have a mechanism by which individuals have a financial incentive to cause harm…

Search for "assassination markets", which is a longish treatment of this idea. Specifically, people collectively can bet large sums of money that X will not be killed Thursday at 5pm. And anyone can take the other side at insanely good odds...

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#42

Post by bko »

hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

I prefer prediction markets to gambling because the platform isn't the bookmaker. This reduces the adverse selection of players. For instance, if you actually win regularly on these platforms they'll actually ban you, much like a casino. My understanding of prediction markets is that it's pure market making which is preferable

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#44

Post by pants2 »

cowpig wrote: post #17

Just game-theoretically, suppose you bet $100 on some disaster. That disaster causes $10,000,000 of harm, but only causes you $90 of harm individually. You've gained $10, but your $10 gain is a millionth of the harm caused. Generally-speaking, there's an enormous asymmetry between the cost to create/build and the cost to destroy. So now we have a mechanism by which individuals have a financial incentive to cause harm…

Couldn't that be said of stock markets and any markets?

United Healthcare stock dropped 10% immediately after its CEO was killed.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#45

Post by Terr_ »

kevinsync wrote: post #15

Assuming everything physical gets tokenized (as occasionally gets predicted), people could soon literally lose their house on a bet! Maybe even a bet placed by their swarm of agents. The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades!

Worse: It won't even be your own bet that does the damage.

It'll be bets collected (or "lost" bets which are actually payments) by other parties that have an interest in an outcome which involves whether you lose your house.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#46

Post by juleiie »

Today Integrity is merely means to score more views and likes

That’s how far we have fallen. We are all painfully aware how corrupted all sorts of people are but instead of actual action we give each other likes on social media under carefully crafted anger bait.

So much everything online is fake that it is tempting to just throw your phone away.

The genuineness is the highest luxury

I try to make sure to get truly downvoted to hell every other week on social media. It resets the addicted brain and stops hive mind progress bar for a little while at least. Also get banned - this is good for you too precisely because it feels slightly uncomfortable.

That’s how I try to survive online landscapes anyway.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#47

Post by paulddraper »

hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

It truly is insane.

The CFTC is granting "no-action" exemptions on the basis of....nothing, really.

The "educational" value of these markets.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#48

Post by dash2 »

yieldcrv wrote: post #23

> I don’t think people have thought hard enough about how bad this could get. given that the crypto anarchist papers from the 90s that these markets are built on are very well thought out instruction manuals about how bad it could get, this title implies users are gullible idiots as opposed to the creators and power users An individual's susceptibility to a vice is an individual problem. So I take issue with all the…

You put your own case powerfully, but you don’t seem to have reacted to Derek Thompson‘s case, except to say that you’re not bothered about gambling addiction. (And why not? If people predictably do things that are bad for themselves, that damages the efficiency case for free markets and everything.)

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#49

Post by paulpauper »

I like prediction markets because they offer much more diverse markets compared to stocks/options and sports betting, which are far more limited. The downsides are limited liquidity and fraud, but this is endemic to other markets too.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#50

Post by canticleforllm »

juleiie wrote: post #46

Today Integrity is merely means to score more views and likes That’s how far we have fallen. We are all painfully aware how corrupted all sorts of people are but instead of actual action we give each other likes on social media under carefully crafted anger bait. So much everything online is fake that it is tempting to just throw your phone away. The genuineness is the highest luxury I try to make sure to get truly d…

We are repeating a very, very old lesson. We will learn once more, the hard way.
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