We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#2Let's make a bet on how bad it can get
I can place a bet that by 2027 we will have 1 bet and a payout on a bet that predicts a horrible catastrophe.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#3Let's make a bet on how bad it can get I can place a bet that by 2027 we will have 1 bet and a payout on a bet that predicts a horrible catastrophe.
I agree with Thompson about these kinds of prediction markets, but predicting horrible catastrophes is one of the prosocial early use cases of these things.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#4'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#5Let's make a bet on how bad it can get I can place a bet that by 2027 we will have 1 bet and a payout on a bet that predicts a horrible catastrophe.
I agree with Thompson about these kinds of prediction markets, but predicting horrible catastrophes is one of the prosocial early use cases of these things.
In the prediction markets, there's a fine line between predicting and manifesting.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#6The amount of suspicious bets around international politics is disturbing
One data point of many: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/politics/iran-war-bets-predic...
Fact: Donald Trump Jump Jr is an advisor of polymarket
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#7Let's make a bet on how bad it can get I can place a bet that by 2027 we will have 1 bet and a payout on a bet that predicts a horrible catastrophe.
I agree with Thompson about these kinds of prediction markets, but predicting horrible catastrophes is one of the prosocial early use cases of these things.
Agreed, as long as it's a catastrophe that the bettors can't cause, but for which advance warning can mitigate harms.
For instance, I'm in favor of bets that a certain astroid will strike the earth at a certain time and place. A signal from the prediction markets might cause somebody to evacuate in a scenario where they'd otherwise cry "fake news."
Let's not bet on whether the water will remain drinkable, because the last thing we need is for somebody to have an incentive to poison it.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with Thompson about these kinds of prediction markets, but predicting horrible catastrophes is one of the prosocial early use cases of these things.
In the prediction markets, there's a fine line between predicting and manifesting.
I mean, I'm talking about things like hurricanes and earthquakes and forest fires, not running death pools.
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#9[flagged]
Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
#10'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.
I believe they are (maybe indirectly on some though): https://www.actionnetwork.com/education/tracking-prediction-...