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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reset isn't the problem, the entirely nerfing the Red team is the problem. The US took steps to fail to learn from the exercise before it had even finished.

what exactly does one learn from hypothetical light-speed motorcycles?

Does the enemy nation have internet? If so, there's your light-speed couriers.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#672

The war should be over by March 31st. Netanyahu has a deadline. He is facing a snap election. If the Knesset doesn't pass a budget by March 31st, Israel votes 90 days later, and Netanyahu is not expected to win. Worse for Netanyahu, he's on trial for corruption charges, and once he's out of office, he's probably headed for jail. The war was intended to give Netanyahu's popularity a boost, but that did not work out. […

Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#673
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, Joe Kent resigning in protest over the war with Iran is admirable, but Joe Kent is also a vocal anti-Semite who was upset that US policy was being directed by Israel. And I don't mean that Joe Kent dislikes the Israeli government or its actions specifically, I mean he engages in anti-Jewish conspiracy theories and associates with anti-Semites like Nick Fuentes.

These days conflating criticism of israel with anti semitism is a very clear, very obvious and very reliable racist calling card. Mitch McConnell (adherent of the great replacement theory) accusing Joe Kent of anti semitism gave the accusation the same gravitas it would have if Strom Thurmond or the Grand wizard of the KKK did it. i.e. it only serves to underscore the accuser's racism.

Those days people that hate Jews claiming they're "only anti-Zionists" are being white washed while synagogues are shot at and people displaying anything Jewish are attacked on the streets in western countries.

Antisemitism is at all times high. And not the "critical of Israel" type of antisemitism. The "jews control the weather", "space lasers from mars" and "let's kill all of them" type of antisemitism is rampant.

Comments like yours are the racist ones. Maybe you don't understand that but that's a whole problem on its own. People are completely uneducated on what antisemitism is, the traditional blood libels against the Jewish people, the history of the Jewish people, and how all that relates to what's going on today.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#674

I think this analysis is missing the big picture. (1) reducing oil shipments to China is good posturing for the US; hence Venezuela and Iran ahead of 2028. These are shaping operations. China suffers more from these conflicts than the US. (2) Iran isn't the only one who can control passage throught the strait. All gulf countries can do so. If Iran can cheaply cut off passage, so can Saudi Arabia and UAE and everyone…

love your very cute assumption that China is going to sit there and do nothing.

you must be living in the Disneyland?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#675
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days conflating criticism of israel with anti semitism is a very clear, very obvious and very reliable racist calling card. Mitch McConnell (adherent of the great replacement theory) accusing Joe Kent of anti semitism gave the accusation the same gravitas it would have if Strom Thurmond or the Grand wizard of the KKK did it. i.e. it only serves to underscore the accuser's racism.

Did I cite Mitch McConnell? No, I did not. I tried to be clear that I am not accusing Joe Kent of anti-Semitism because he is criticizing Israel, and Mitch engaging in that kind of rhetoric is only serving to make it harder for me to make my point. I am accusing Kent of anti-Semitism because he has a history of engaging in anti-Jewish conspiracy theories and consorting with neo-Nazis. My point is simple: we should no…

"The Senate on Wednesday confirmed Joe Kent to a top counterterrorism role, overcoming opposition from Democrats who described the retired Army Green Beret as a conspiracy theorist who has associated with White nationalists and other far-right extremists. "

- https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/31/politics/senate-confirmation-...

Obviously a hero to the some on the far left today.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#676
post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess, though, the actual “solar” part of the solar set up is by far the cheapest part. The vast majority of the set up costs are just getting electrification done right. Like, even if LNG becomes crazy cheap, a battery set up will still save you money in the long run just by allowing off-peak demand. This is why I’m confused: for this to me remotely a bad investment, basically everything possible has to go wrong f…

> even if LNG becomes crazy cheap, a battery set up will still save you money in the long run just by allowing off-peak demand See Uruguay. Bet heavily on renewables [1]. Baked in a high cost [2]. If LNG becomes crazy cheap and you're stuck with expensive solar and battery, the countries with cheaper power will eat your industry. On a household level, you wasted money. The alternate you who didn't put money into the…

Per your sources it looks like they are subsidising industry use of electricity with household usage:

Household electricity prices are 157% of average in SA, and 200% of industry prices. That's not a case of renewables backfiring, it's a case of strange policy resulting in weird pricing.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#677
post #632

I think the correct way of viewing this war is around internal White House power games. I don't think Trump himself particularly cares about Iran (or indeed Israel) - as in I don't think he has strong heartfelt views or moral convictions that cause him to act one way or the other in the strategic sense. But there are those in the White House who do. My impression from afar is that JD Vance wouldn't have been very sup…

> Maybe no one actually wanted this and they just went along because no one was actively saying it was dumb?

It is possible that the current war launched by the US Department of War by the chairman of the Board of Peace is the result of the Abilene Paradox.[1]

However, this vile collection of idiotic thugs more likely reached a Dunning-Krugerian consensus that this would be a quick and easy win. They all think themselves smarter and even nobler than everyone else.

They are however simply more remorselessly corrupt than most people imagined.

[1] _ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abilene_paradox

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#678

The blog post said that the Iran war costs the US at least 1 billion USD per day. The US is incredibly rich and can afford the cost. What I don't see being discussed: What if the US (and Israel) does not put troops on the ground in Iran, but continues relentless, daily aerial bombing... forever (1/2/3 years)? I am not saying that you can control a country from air superiority only (this has been widely discussed by m…

"There are a lot of people who say that bombing can never win a war. Well, my answer to that is that it has never been tried yet, and we shall see." - Sir Arthur Harris The response is as applicable now as it was then. Time will tell.

This same blog really chastises that statement and tries to debunk it. I don't really see anything wrong with that article so until then, I guess I believe airpower can never win a war https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower...

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#679

I think this analysis is missing the big picture. (1) reducing oil shipments to China is good posturing for the US; hence Venezuela and Iran ahead of 2028. These are shaping operations. China suffers more from these conflicts than the US. (2) Iran isn't the only one who can control passage throught the strait. All gulf countries can do so. If Iran can cheaply cut off passage, so can Saudi Arabia and UAE and everyone…

The continued stalemate will likely continue in my opinion. Continued daily strikes by the US and Iran squeezing the strait. China is severely squeezed by loss of oil. Russia benefits from rising oil prices. Everyone else will get to relive the 1970s. Stagflation here we come.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#680
post #675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did I cite Mitch McConnell? No, I did not. I tried to be clear that I am not accusing Joe Kent of anti-Semitism because he is criticizing Israel, and Mitch engaging in that kind of rhetoric is only serving to make it harder for me to make my point. I am accusing Kent of anti-Semitism because he has a history of engaging in anti-Jewish conspiracy theories and consorting with neo-Nazis. My point is simple: we should no…

"The Senate on Wednesday confirmed Joe Kent to a top counterterrorism role, overcoming opposition from Democrats who described the retired Army Green Beret as a conspiracy theorist who has associated with White nationalists and other far-right extremists. " - https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/31/politics/senate-confirmation-... Obviously a hero to the some on the far left today.

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