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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#441
post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, Saudi Arabia might get involved.

they couldn't defeat much smaller and weaker Yemen.

That doesn't mean they can't be useful, and they do already have a chip on their shoulder wrt Iran because of Iran's support for the Houthis.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#442
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read on the martingale strategy. This is Donald Trump signature strategy. Basically, when something doesn't work, you double down; and it pays off. This strategy keeps working until it doesn't and completely bankrupt the player. Because the strategy has been always paying off for the them (djt & co), they thought they have some kind of a special skill/power that others don't; not realizing that they are just bad at m…

Trump doesn't care about the results in Iran. He's getting richer through graft while making himself look big. He's pathetic and we're all paying the price in one way or another.

I suspect Trump may not care about money much, but at the end of the life he wants to be some historical figure. Similar motive was for Putin to invade Ukraine.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#443
post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since you seemingly have trouble reading text, I'll try to condense it in some bullet points. Unfortunately HN has no crayon functionality: 1. Regime still in power, legitimized by the defense against foreign agressors. 2. Internal unrest loses steam. 3. Effective control of the strait of Hormuz, being able to, for example, dictate who is allowed to pass through and/or demand tolls for safe passage. 4. Weakening of t…

1) What defense? They have been punching back but have been unable to stop enemy strikes. Do you understand what the word "defense" means? 2) That happened before the war, and the protesters have been told to hold off for now. Its completely irrelevant to this war. 3) They control it for now. We'll see how long they can continue threatening global trade. My money is not for long. [1] 4) Attacking radar systems is not…

[flagged]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A country that goes all in renewable is in a stronger positon. UK power grid doesn't give a fuck about this war. Sure China. But unless they send in an army to retreive previously sold panels, or block the sun they can only harm future increases to supply.

Or wait 20 years for the panels to degrade...

The long operating life of a solar panel compared to a barrel of oil is a selling point when it comes to self-sufficiency. With 20 years of warning, any country that pretends to be a globally-relevant power can get itself to the point of producing acceptable solar panels if its survival depends on it.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#445

> Please understand me: the people in these countries are not important, but as a matter of national strategy, some places are more important than others. I assume/hope this was meant to say "the people in these countries are not [un]important"? (or just "are important") As an entirely secular person, I believe every innocent human life is important.

The typo is fixed now.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#446
post #379
post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article: >Israel could force the United States into a war with Iran at any time. >It should go without saying that creating the conditions where the sometimes unpredictable junior partner in a security relationship can unilaterally bring the senior partner into a major conflict is an enormous strategic error, precisely because it means you end up in a war when it is in the junior partner’s interests to do so…

Israel is entirely dependent on USA. If USA says they cant attack, they wont.

Are you sure you haven't got that the wrong way around? As an outsider it looks to me as if Israel shouts 'jump' and the USA says 'how high?'. Which is bizarre when you look at how much support the US gives Israel.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#447

The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The most important aspect of the "toll" is that Iran prefers payment in yuan, not dollars. If Iran succeeds in nationalizing the Straight and is successful in enforcing the toll, it represents a very serious threat to the dominance of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency for trading energy.

idk this move, along with firing missiles even to non-combatant countries, is going to fuk-up iran... I mean, even before the $2M toll, if you're kuwait/UAE/saudi/etc, what choice do you have? form a coalition against iran now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships... so what choice do all those strait-using countries have? pay $2M or more, even after US leaves? nope... they'll form a coali…

> they'll form a coalition against iran

and do what?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The petrochemical industry is huge we've yet to find alternatives for it. Half the stuff around you was made with something derived from oil, and you can't replace that with wind or sunlight in the foreseeable future.

there are pathways to produce synthetic oil from coal or using carbon capture if you have cheap energy. I hope they will catch up if fossil oil prices skyrocket.

This is the secret flipside of solar power's duck curve: it makes a lot of stupidly energy intensive paths towards non-fossil oil production a lot less stupid if you just have the energy to burn. Think about how in the 2000s we had a weird obsession with ethanol and other biofuels, only to learn that they were merely 40-50% efficient. If your energy mix is predominantly fossil fuels, you're better off just not burning the oil. But if you have solar, suddenly it becomes a good option for energy storage, especially in industries that need the weight properties of chemical fuels (i.e. aircraft, where you HAVE to be able to burn and exhaust your fuel or the plane will be too heavy to land).

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watching helplessly from the inside is painful. What makes it worse is I know people who are intelligent and appear to not be hateful SOBs that voted for the clowns, and would do so again. It breaks my brain, and my heart.

Perhaps they are not as intelligent as you think they are.

I believe that highly intelligent people can do incredibly stupid things -- I've seen it first hand.

The correlating factor for those two acquaintances is that they are both devout Christians. I find that to be beyond ironic but also makes sense, as that devotion parallels the appeal to authority and many churches are run by leaders who believe in Supply Side Jesus.

I don't mean this to be inflammatory as it's only an observation, but organized religion is not compatible with modern society,

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#450

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

The petrochemical industry is huge we've yet to find alternatives for it. Half the stuff around you was made with something derived from oil, and you can't replace that with wind or sunlight in the foreseeable future.

Very little oil is used to make plastic.

In Europe between 4–6% of oil and gas is used for producing plastics and globally around 6% of global oil is used. By contrast, 87% is used for transport, electricity and heating.

https://www.bpf.co.uk/press/Oil_Consumption.aspx

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