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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#421

Post by breve »

sysguest wrote: post #232
redwood wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone knew the Iranians would close the strait and that it would take time to re-open it. That was the price the administration was willing to pay. Put differently, the regime's traditional deterrence did not work against this administration. You seem to think the administration would not have done this thing with what we know now. What makes you think that?

yeah I did expect US to know all those things... but what I did NOT expect, is how Iran regime would choose strategically suicidal options just to "feel good" missile-rambo even on non-combatant countries? that'll trigger self-defense attacks... $2M per voyage? woah... the stait-users don't have a choice, but "make an example out of" iran... I mean, iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and…

> Iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and focus)

Iran has deliberately escalated the war horizontally to create a bigger mess and to make the military adventure more expensive for America and the world.

Iran is saying, "If you attack us, these are the costs."

As an invading military, you're either willing to pay those costs or you're not.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#422

Post by IncreasePosts »

bluealienpie wrote: post #39
fruit2020 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it’s not about nuclear weapons?

It was never about nuclear weapons, Netanyahu has been saying Iran was one week away for over 30 years. Europe goes along as an excuse to support politically unpopular war to maintain US support for Ukraine.

No, he hasn't been saying that, despite what you may have read in a random reddit comment. In the 90s he was saying 3-5 years. In 2010 it was 1-2 years.

The first time any kind of claim measured in weeks was immediately before Rising Lion last year, and guess what, the IAEA agreed with him.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#423

Post by vkou »

roryirvine wrote: post #164
orwin wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not all. I tried as much as I could not commenting on it, but the delusions of _a lot_ of hn users on the subject, even a few whose opinion I respect, were unreal. People who are not MAGA btw. And I'm not sure most of those realise how delusional they were, even now. They will probably rewire their memory to forget what they believed 3 weeks ago, compress the time they were wrong. I initially thought the 'manufa…

It was certainly notable that so many HNers seemed absolutely certain that the Kurds would come to the USA's aid, ignoring the fact that America had facilitated the one-sided ceasefire imposed on Rojava just weeks before. A few more sceptical voices brought this up, and were told repeatedly that it didn't matter because the Kurds in Syria and Turkey are very different from those in Iraq & Iran. And there's certainly…

I mean, I assumed that any group of people stupid enough to be betrayed by the department of state twice would be first in line to get betrayed a third and fourth time.

It hardly seemed an unreasonable assumption.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#424

Post by anticodon »

khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

West is living in its own bubble of misinformation. Including the government.

On many occasions I've read self-soothing wishful thinking messages about my country. In 2022 it was that Russian army is fleeing, all Russian tanks were burned down, and Russian soldiers are deserting from a front lines with a speed of 100,000 persons a day. Here on HN. Written by the people who had no clue how to distinguish Russian tank from Ukrainian tank.

Or in 2022-2023 EU leaders said that Russian soldiers are fighting with shovels and stealing microwaves and washing machines to extract microchips from them.

Or just recently someone wrote to me that we are living in the stone age, whatever that means.

On the other hand, I'm happy that West prefers to live in a bubble with no access to real information. And if you try to convey real information, they'll call you "Kremlin bot" or "North Korean bot" or "Chinese bot". It means that less countries will fall prey to neocolonial practices and wars because you cannot wage wars and govern colonies based entirely on misinformation from propaganda your own media creates out of thin air.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#425

Post by BurningFrog »

khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

I think it's pretty clear that this war was initiated by Israel, who asked/hoped that the US would go along with it.

While I can easily imagine the Trump crew is a bit impulsive and unprepared, I am VERY sure Israel went in to this with their usual competency, including very clear plans and targets.

If this eventually results in a half decent Iranian government, that would be the best thing that happened to the world this century! A period of war and high oil prices is a cheap price to pay, IF that actually happens.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#426

Post by jmye »

GJim wrote: post #214
jmye wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It has to be hard for Americans to realise that their government has pissed so much of the world off so badly. It is not hard, at all, for roughly 1/3 of Americans to understand this. Another 1/3 don't think it, or anything past their TikTok feed, matters. The last 1/3 thought Team America was a documentary.

> It is not hard, at all, for roughly 1/3 of Americans to understand this. Sorry, but I don't think they do understand. America has managed to piss off Canada FFS. And lets be honest, you've got to work really hard to piss off the Canadians. Frankly, Americans (former) allies have seen the American people VOTE for Trump. Twice. Even if Trump goes tomorrow, the (former) allies know what a significant proportion of the…

> Sorry, but I don't think they do understand.

Sorry, but 1/3 of the country is deeply, keenly aware of what an absolute fucking disgrace the last year and two months have been for us on an international stage. There's no delusion, here, that Canadians are excited about being threatened with an invasion, in spite of your silly black/white post.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#427

Post by leonidasrup »

dalyons wrote: post #294
lxgr wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wether it's wind, solar or hydro, a underappreciated property of renewable energy is the energy sovereignty they provide. If your sovereign territory happens to support them geographically. This is true for many, but not all countries. Also, without large storage capacity, you might end up being self-sufficient during sunny, windy days, but find yourself very dependent on your neighbor countries for imports on over…

Why do you have to go to absolutes? If 90% of countries can be 80+% self sufficient, that’s still an amazing thing

These 20% will still make you dependent on foreign country.

For example Germany was dependent on Russian gas (before year 2022), which they later swapped for dependency on US LNG. In addition, Germany is dependent on China for PV panels.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#428

Post by redwood »

ses1984 wrote: post #396
redwood wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was in January

No actually it was feb 28th https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033

Did you even listen to the link you just posted? He makes very clear in his instructions to the Iranian people that they should stay sheltered as bombs will be dropping.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#430

Post by ericmay »

mememememememo wrote: post #392
ericmay wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't though, it's the illusion of removing of a dependency which is rather dangerous. You're not only swapping one dependency for another in this specific case, but you're ignoring the rest of the global economy and its own dependencies and how they affect you.

A country that goes all in renewable is in a stronger positon. UK power grid doesn't give a fuck about this war. Sure China. But unless they send in an army to retreive previously sold panels, or block the sun they can only harm future increases to supply.

> A country that goes all in renewable is in a stronger position.

Depends on the country.

> UK power grid doesn't give a fuck about this war.

Power grid =/= economy. You're missing the point. Rising prices affect the United Kingdom economy even if it was fully run on renewables. The ships bringing products to the country don't run on renewables, the cars mostly don't, your fighter jets don't, your fertilizer doesn't. &c.

It's important to not be dogmatic and be practical about this stuff. Every country on the planet needs and utilizes oil and gas and that will remain true for the foreseeable future because of globalized supply chains.

> Sure China. But unless they send in an army to retreive previously sold panels, or block the sun they can only harm future increases to supply.

Which, in the case of a war with the US would be true because the UK will be involved and sided with the US and/or certainly assumed to be by China. (This is indisputable). So sure you build up those panels, but then you see a war and now you lose access to those materials and if it isn't solved in the near term you have to switch all of your energy back to fossil fuels. No new EVs during the war, for example.

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