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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#411

Post by Hikikomori »

spwa4 wrote: post #399
Hikikomori wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They started again in 2021, years after Trump left the JCPOA and imposed heavy sanctions. You see how one thing might lead to another? Its almost like someone wants this to happen.

I don't really care what you say, this is the IRGC, who massacred 50 people at Brussels airport for example. If they feel they are unfairly treated in any way, they can always report to the Belgian authorities, who I'm sure will provide a small windowless room with free meals. And until they do that, and until they're let out again, no amount of arguments will ever make me agree that it's just not fair. In fact, if e…

Yeah they should. Netanyahu and Israels leaders should report to the ICJ.

You don't really care because you don't have a valid argument. Fact is Iran was complying with JCPOA, as all US intelligence agencies agreed on. It was working. But it had one flaw, Obama signed it and the orange baby couldn't deal with that, and likely Israel/Netanyahu influencing Trump back then as well as they were opposing the deal from the start.

Now I don't think Iran should have nuclear weapons, but lets be fair here, they followed the deal, but still got sanctions put on them as if they were building a bomb, why not do it then? If we're to judge them by what politicians, generals or religious zealots has said in the past, then look no further than the US and what they thought about using nukes post ww2, I would argue they were much much worse no matter what Iran has said.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#412

Post by r2_pilot »

mememememememo wrote: post #392
ericmay wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't though, it's the illusion of removing of a dependency which is rather dangerous. You're not only swapping one dependency for another in this specific case, but you're ignoring the rest of the global economy and its own dependencies and how they affect you.

A country that goes all in renewable is in a stronger positon. UK power grid doesn't give a fuck about this war. Sure China. But unless they send in an army to retreive previously sold panels, or block the sun they can only harm future increases to supply.

Or wait 20 years for the panels to degrade...

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#413

Post by brightball »

1minusp wrote: post #280
amarant wrote: post #278

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

I'd love to believe this, but very recent history has shown (in the US at least) that we are moving backwards and trying to resist renewable energy.

Economics will always win in the end. At the rate that costs are dropping for solar, it should just be a matter of time.

Biggest concerns are usually placement and durability to bad weather.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#414

Post by physicles »

samrus wrote: post #97
johnohara wrote: post #72

The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The most important aspect of the "toll" is that Iran prefers payment in yuan, not dollars. If Iran succeeds in nationalizing the Straight and is successful in enforcing the toll, it represents a very serious threat to the dominance of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency for trading energy.

It would legitimately be hilarious though if the result of this conflict was iran being the one to enact regime change. In terms of the global order

Heh. Trump asks the oracle at Delphi what will happen if he launches the war.

“The war will surely achieve regime change,” replies the oracle.

“Great, let’s go,” says Trump, who never read Herodotus.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#415

Post by amarant »

guzfip wrote: post #394
amarant wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We read the article rather differently it seems. My reading is that he's pointing out the lack of goal for America here. Or at the very least the lack of a realistic goal. As he points out, it was clear 40 years ago that the stated objective stood very little chance of being achieved, which in turn makes one wonder if that was even a real objective at all. And having a stated objective is quite different from having…

> But you'd be very stupid to take Hitler's words at face value, especially with the benefit of hindsight! Well there are a lot of very stupid people in this world.

On that, we agree!

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#416

Post by aaa_aaa »

mrguyorama wrote: post #326
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The failed revolution a month prior may have been the US too. It's after the ramp up in production of weapons used in the shooting war started.

No, the protests were mostly genuine. That's what happens when your country is so up it's own ass with religious totalitarianism that you set yourself up to not have water at all in the next few decades. Average citizens generally get really pissy when you take away the "At least I'm not literally dying" excuse. The US could not participate in that because we had moved assets to south america to fuck with Venezuela.…

[flagged]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#417

Post by WarmWash »

watwut wrote: post #393
erezsh wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, all these armchair "experts" are missing very obvious truths - 1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait. 2) Revolutions don't happen overnight, the same way that businesses don't succeed overnight, even though from far away it might seem that way. 3) Official Israeli statements estimate it could take up to a year after the war is over for a successful overthrow, even…

Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran. It would bomb and kill anyone who tries that. Israels plan is to periodically bomb and keep Iran failed state. It is working on making itself larger cleansing whole areas around it and settling it.

Israel doesn't want delusional theocrats running Iran.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#418

Post by andriy_koval »

buran77 wrote: post #341
amarant wrote: post #278

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

The petrochemical industry is huge we've yet to find alternatives for it. Half the stuff around you was made with something derived from oil, and you can't replace that with wind or sunlight in the foreseeable future.

there are pathways to produce synthetic oil from coal or using carbon capture if you have cheap energy. I hope they will catch up if fossil oil prices skyrocket.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#419

Post by spwa4 »

Hikikomori wrote: post #411
spwa4 wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really care what you say, this is the IRGC, who massacred 50 people at Brussels airport for example. If they feel they are unfairly treated in any way, they can always report to the Belgian authorities, who I'm sure will provide a small windowless room with free meals. And until they do that, and until they're let out again, no amount of arguments will ever make me agree that it's just not fair. In fact, if e…

Yeah they should. Netanyahu and Israels leaders should report to the ICJ. You don't really care because you don't have a valid argument. Fact is Iran was complying with JCPOA, as all US intelligence agencies agreed on. It was working. But it had one flaw, Obama signed it and the orange baby couldn't deal with that, and likely Israel/Netanyahu influencing Trump back then as well as they were opposing the deal from the…

Like I said you cannot make a reasonable argument that Iran respected international treaties and is now being treated unfairly. That's utterly and completely ridiculous, regardless of the specific treaty.

Iran's government organizes massacres, inside and outside of Iran. Could you illuminate further to me which treaties that little practice follows and how unfair it is it causes bad things to happen to them?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#420

Post by lxgr »

ViewTrick1002 wrote: post #330
lxgr wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're 80% self-sufficient, you're not self-sufficient.

But the dependency turns from a stop the world calamity to an annoyance. If you’re 95% self sufficient it will stay at headlines in the local press.

Losing 20% of your electricity supply is a calamity, not an annoyance. So unless you want the calamity, you're still dependent on imports.

Personally, I don't see an issue with that, as long as the neighboring countries you're importing from are reliable and will be able to supply at the times you need (i.e., they don't have the same possibly spiky import dependency as yourself). The other option is massive storage capacity.

I just don't think it makes sense to just equate renewables with automatic sovereignty.

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