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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#391

Post by amarant »

weaksauce wrote: post #323
amarant wrote: post #278

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

this misses the fact that petroleum is incredibly useful outside of the burn it to make electricity and burn it to make car move use cases.

Not really. If we only need it for petrochemical products, like medical plastics etc, losing 20% of available crude globally is a non-issue.

We can probably stand to use a lot less plastics too. Outside of medicine it's mostly replaceable, and reducing our usage to less than 80% of current usage would be trivial if we didn't burn it for energy.

In that scenario Iran can keep their strait. We won't need them.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#392

Post by mememememememo »

ericmay wrote: post #361
estearum wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they said it will give you self-sufficiency, rather that it removes one (important) dimension of dependency.

It doesn't though, it's the illusion of removing of a dependency which is rather dangerous. You're not only swapping one dependency for another in this specific case, but you're ignoring the rest of the global economy and its own dependencies and how they affect you.

A country that goes all in renewable is in a stronger positon. UK power grid doesn't give a fuck about this war.

Sure China. But unless they send in an army to retreive previously sold panels, or block the sun they can only harm future increases to supply.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#393

Post by watwut »

erezsh wrote: post #222
redwood wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a lot of people throw this "no revolution" perspective around when everyone involved has been very clear to the Iranian people: that this is the time to stay safe and inside. People rising up will take time, and will be highly unpredictable. No one said otherwise. You imply "analysts already had this all identified" yet you are putting forward a supposition here that's just wildly unrealistic.

Seriously, all these armchair "experts" are missing very obvious truths - 1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait. 2) Revolutions don't happen overnight, the same way that businesses don't succeed overnight, even though from far away it might seem that way. 3) Official Israeli statements estimate it could take up to a year after the war is over for a successful overthrow, even…

Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran. It would bomb and kill anyone who tries that. Israels plan is to periodically bomb and keep Iran failed state.

It is working on making itself larger cleansing whole areas around it and settling it.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#394

Post by guzfip »

amarant wrote: post #373
the_af wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the author seems to be subtly implying that America is a "stupid fascist nation" He does nothing of the sort. I can clarify for you: the mention of fascist countries being bad at war is a link to another article by the author, which explains that fascist countries such as Mussolini's Italy and Nazi Germany were very bad at a war even while they mythologized and romanticized it, and derived their "sense of nation" o…

We read the article rather differently it seems. My reading is that he's pointing out the lack of goal for America here. Or at the very least the lack of a realistic goal. As he points out, it was clear 40 years ago that the stated objective stood very little chance of being achieved, which in turn makes one wonder if that was even a real objective at all. And having a stated objective is quite different from having…

> But you'd be very stupid to take Hitler's words at face value, especially with the benefit of hindsight!

Well there are a lot of very stupid people in this world.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#395

Post by hersko »

surgical_fire wrote: post #318
hersko wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explain how they are better off than when the war started.

Since you seemingly have trouble reading text, I'll try to condense it in some bullet points. Unfortunately HN has no crayon functionality: 1. Regime still in power, legitimized by the defense against foreign agressors. 2. Internal unrest loses steam. 3. Effective control of the strait of Hormuz, being able to, for example, dictate who is allowed to pass through and/or demand tolls for safe passage. 4. Weakening of t…

1) What defense? They have been punching back but have been unable to stop enemy strikes. Do you understand what the word "defense" means?

2) That happened before the war, and the protesters have been told to hold off for now. Its completely irrelevant to this war.

3) They control it for now. We'll see how long they can continue threatening global trade. My money is not for long. [1]

4) Attacking radar systems is not weakening the US presence in gulf countries. What they have succeeded in doing is attacking almost every gulf country souring relations.

5) This makes no difference since they were selling to russia and china regardless

6) This makes no sense, as they had operational Nuclear facilities up until the moment Israel/US blew them up. There is no reason to think we wouldn't do it again.

[1] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/bahrain-uae-join-20-oth...

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#398

Post by tim333 »

mrexcess wrote: post #200
daemoens wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Millennium Challenge 2002 is discredited because it had motorcycle couriers that moved at light speed handling all communications and 10' speed boats launching 19' missiles.

After being restarted, the red (opposing) force general resigned due to the restarted game having what amounted to a scripted end, with little to no latitude for the red force to exercise creativity in strategy or tactics. Among the highlights, the red force were required to turn on and leave on their AA radars so that blue force HARMs could take them out, and the red force was prohibited from attempting to shoot dow…

Similar complaints from Trump the other day

“So, it’s it’s uh little unfair. You know, you win a war, but they have no right to be doing what they’re doing.”

https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/2033768757688934424

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#399

Post by spwa4 »

Hikikomori wrote: post #325
spwa4 wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, here is the final UN report, from the horses mouth so to speak: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pd... (they preliminarily reported the same stance even in 2024, before any attacks) TLDR: Iran, despite having signed a treaty allowing access, is hiding highly enriched uranium, enough to build 9, maybe 10 nuclear devices. It is also not complying with its other obligations under the NPT t…

They started again in 2021, years after Trump left the JCPOA and imposed heavy sanctions. You see how one thing might lead to another? Its almost like someone wants this to happen.

I don't really care what you say, this is the IRGC, who massacred 50 people at Brussels airport for example. If they feel they are unfairly treated in any way, they can always report to the Belgian authorities, who I'm sure will provide a small windowless room with free meals.

And until they do that, and until they're let out again, no amount of arguments will ever make me agree that it's just not fair. In fact, if everyone even remotely involved with them gets shot THAT I will call fairness.

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