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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#381

Post by brentm »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #356

The blog post said that the Iran war costs the US at least 1 billion USD per day. The US is incredibly rich and can afford the cost. What I don't see being discussed: What if the US (and Israel) does not put troops on the ground in Iran, but continues relentless, daily aerial bombing... forever (1/2/3 years)? I am not saying that you can control a country from air superiority only (this has been widely discussed by m…

I don't think we could see a bombing campaign like the one we've seen so far anywhere near that length of time. Partly for munitions reasons and partly for target reasons. There is only so much stuff to blow up and only so many bombs to blow things up with. We can't produce them at any where near the rate that would be required to just to do this for years.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#382

Post by lyu07282 »

mrexcess wrote: post #207
geraneum wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a purely ideological way of looking at the situation which IMO is not sufficient. As the article states, this war was not unprovoked either, regardless of whether the provocations warrant such a response. Iran is seeking its own hegemony. Now, this does not negate your point on the hegemonic approach of US in the region. I think this war can be viewed as a power struggle between a regional and global power tha…

>As the article states, this war was not unprovoked either Using the same extraordinarily broad definition of "provocation" required here, can you name a single war in history that was unprovoked? And if not, haven't we just neutralized all meaning from the phrase "provoked war" with our overly broad definition of "provocation"?

What you see here is the limits of liberal discourse on war, it's always 'here are the reasons why the war is justified' now let me explain why i'm against the war. Then discourse devolves into 'what is war even'? Believe in something, anything, dear god.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#383

Post by worik »

BariumBlue wrote: post #310
somenameforme wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just this administration. Everything with the US military has been going clearly downhill since the Millennium Challenge 2002. [1] It was, appropriately enough, a wargame simulating an invasion of Iran. It was a major event involving preparation in years and thousands of individual operators. When it was carried out the invading force was defeated by unexpected resources and resourcefulness from the Iranian…

> When it was carried out the invading force was defeated by unexpected resources and resourcefulness from the Iranian side, not entirely unlike what Iran has done during our invasion. Are you saying that Iran is capably fighting and killing US personnel, aircraft, and invading infantry? I am a little confused about the universe you live in. The IRGC and Basij effectively do not have a chain of command and are effect…

> The IRGC and Basij effectively do not have a chain of command

There is no reason to believe that

They have been training for decades for exactly this sort of war, and have experienced veterans at all levels

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#384

Post by [deleted] »

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #237
yanhangyhy wrote: post #7

The reason for the Iran war is very simple: Israel’s instigation, a potential strike against China, and Trump’s political immaturity.

> a potential strike against China I think this is understated in every analysis I've seen. I would bet good money this was part of the main selling point for the US. Just type in "China Oil" into any search engine or even filter the search to 2023 and earlier. China's oil consumption was surging significantly and they get a huge chunk of their oil through the Strait. It wasn't until 2024 I believe that they started…

[deleted]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#385

Post by [deleted] »

ms_menardi wrote: post #368
lxgr wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're 80% self-sufficient, you're not self-sufficient.

If a kid lives on their own but their mom buys them groceries once per month and their dad swings by on thursdays with pizza and beer, that kid's still pretty darn self sufficient. Similarly, if a country can use 80% less oil or imported fuel than they would have without renewable energy, I think they're pretty self-sufficient. They don't have to be isolated from trade, it's okay to import some things and export othe…

[deleted]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#386

Post by estearum »

ericmay wrote: post #361
estearum wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they said it will give you self-sufficiency, rather that it removes one (important) dimension of dependency.

It doesn't though, it's the illusion of removing of a dependency which is rather dangerous. You're not only swapping one dependency for another in this specific case, but you're ignoring the rest of the global economy and its own dependencies and how they affect you.

Eh, an operational dependency that immediately raises costs across your entire economy, across all geographies, all industries, within a couple days of disruption is very different from these more strategic dependencies.

The key would be to simply not ignore all the other dimensions of dependency.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#387

Post by Forgeties79 »

amarant wrote: post #278

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

For the US to start going that route we need a certain group of politicians to stop telling everybody that windmills are killing whales and birds en masse, claiming solar "isn't there yet" (somehow it never is), and that there is such thing as "clean coal." Literally the only thing I don't hear them fighting (loudly) against is hydro power.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#388

Post by watwut »

sysguest wrote: post #232
redwood wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone knew the Iranians would close the strait and that it would take time to re-open it. That was the price the administration was willing to pay. Put differently, the regime's traditional deterrence did not work against this administration. You seem to think the administration would not have done this thing with what we know now. What makes you think that?

yeah I did expect US to know all those things... but what I did NOT expect, is how Iran regime would choose strategically suicidal options just to "feel good" missile-rambo even on non-combatant countries? that'll trigger self-defense attacks... $2M per voyage? woah... the stait-users don't have a choice, but "make an example out of" iran... I mean, iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and…

Iran did not made more ennemies. It attacked countries that did not liked Iran and hosted American assets.

They are easier to hit and harder to defend then Israel. That is depleting defense forces more.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#389

Post by RationPhantoms »

mythrwy wrote: post #366
throwaway2037 wrote: post #356

The blog post said that the Iran war costs the US at least 1 billion USD per day. The US is incredibly rich and can afford the cost. What I don't see being discussed: What if the US (and Israel) does not put troops on the ground in Iran, but continues relentless, daily aerial bombing... forever (1/2/3 years)? I am not saying that you can control a country from air superiority only (this has been widely discussed by m…

Many of their military assets are underground out of reach of bombers. And you need somewhere to stage out of. Probably not the Gulf bases that are being wiped by missiles and drones at the moment. The aircraft carriers have been having issues and are being pushed back out of missile range. So it becomes more difficult and expensive to keep the bombing up.

I mean the answer to underground facilities is you just keep bombing the entrance which is exactly what they've done. Iran still has insane supply levels of ballistic missiles so the US/Israel are eradicating their tele-launcher fleet.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#390

Post by worik »

lyu07282 wrote: post #359
Pay08 wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> he also reported on how Israeli is seeing Turkey as the next threat to eliminate after Iran. Good thing that that's not at all true. What you are referring to was an (intentional) mistranslation of a public comment by an Israeli minister, who said that Turkey was their greatest threat after Iran.

[flagged]

Turkey is a NATO member....
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