Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Miscellanea: The War in Iran

acoup.blog

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

321–330 of 1001 posts

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#321

Post by manyaoman »

znnajdla wrote: post #240

No one seems to discuss the worst case scenario for this war. In the best/average case the world takes an economic hit. But I can think of one really big black swan event which no one seems to even consider (except Nassim Taleb). This war could trigger regime collapses all over the Arab world and put populist leaders in charge who rise to power on the basis of Gaza genocide fury. That would be catastrophic to Israel:…

> This war could trigger regime collapses all over the Arab world and put populist leaders in charge who rise to power on the basis of Gaza genocide fury.

It would be a black swan if this didn't happen.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#322

Post by the_af »

ReptileMan wrote: post #315
pphysch wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Return them to stone age until the leadership becomes reasonable. Worth reflecting on this sentence. What is "reasonable" supposed to entail here? ETA: "Become secular" is a wild demand from theocratic regime that wants to "Kill Amalek and Build the Third Temple".

Give away the enriched uranium, become secular. Edit: Sometimes the only answer to the weaker side claiming that something is impossible is Vae Victis. I am sure that there are enough powerful people in Iran that wouldn't mind secular state if they are the one to lead it. It is not as if their kids are not wild partying in europe anyway.

> Give away the enriched uranium, become secular.

TFA explains why this is impossible for Iran.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#323

Post by weaksauce »

amarant wrote: post #278

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

this misses the fact that petroleum is incredibly useful outside of the burn it to make electricity and burn it to make car move use cases.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#324

Post by conception »

ReptileMan wrote: post #295
niemandhier wrote: post #187

A war continuous until one side has caused the other more suffering than it can take. When dealing with the Middle East we keep underestimating the amount of hardship the people I these countries can endure or be forced to endure.

[flagged]

Yes, this is definitely a way to gain leadership that is more amenable. There definitely has not been any historical cases of one country inflecting mass suffering on another country’s innocent population for the other to hold.. let’s say a strong grudge against the aggressor.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#325

Post by Hikikomori »

spwa4 wrote: post #256
Hikikomori wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

JCPOA was followed with minor discrepancies like having less than 1 ton too much heavy water. US intelligence agencies agreed that Iran was not working on a bomb as US left JCPOA, as they testified to in congress.

Well, here is the final UN report, from the horses mouth so to speak: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pd... (they preliminarily reported the same stance even in 2024, before any attacks) TLDR: Iran, despite having signed a treaty allowing access, is hiding highly enriched uranium, enough to build 9, maybe 10 nuclear devices. It is also not complying with its other obligations under the NPT t…

They started again in 2021, years after Trump left the JCPOA and imposed heavy sanctions. You see how one thing might lead to another? Its almost like someone wants this to happen.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#326

Post by mrguyorama »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #63
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

The failed revolution a month prior may have been the US too. It's after the ramp up in production of weapons used in the shooting war started.

No, the protests were mostly genuine. That's what happens when your country is so up it's own ass with religious totalitarianism that you set yourself up to not have water at all in the next few decades. Average citizens generally get really pissy when you take away the "At least I'm not literally dying" excuse.

The US could not participate in that because we had moved assets to south america to fuck with Venezuela. The war in Iran wasn't started until the USS Ford had been re-positioned back to the middle east.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#327

Post by dingaling »

znnajdla wrote: post #240

No one seems to discuss the worst case scenario for this war. In the best/average case the world takes an economic hit. But I can think of one really big black swan event which no one seems to even consider (except Nassim Taleb). This war could trigger regime collapses all over the Arab world and put populist leaders in charge who rise to power on the basis of Gaza genocide fury. That would be catastrophic to Israel:…

"That would be catastrophic to Israel: they could face Iran from the air and Arab ground forces from multiple directions. "

Israel has little to fear from Iran in the air, the IRIAF has been destroyed and ballistic missile launches have tapered off.

In terms of Arab ground armies, only Egypt and Saudi pose much of a threat; the others are small, unintegrated and inexperienced and rely heavily on Western contractor support.

And if Israel, which has the most combat experienced air force in the World, somehow did struggle to defend against those forces, they always have the Samson Option of nuclear-tipped missiles from silos and submarines.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#328

Post by brendoelfrendo »

Dig1t wrote: post #303
lyu07282 wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is this interesting split on the right on Israel, Tucker Carlson is one of the few large platforms talking on zionism. He also interviewed the US embassador to Israel Mike Huckabee who said they have a "biblical right to land from ‘wadi of Egypt to the great river’" (Greater Israel), he also reported on how Israeli is seeing Turkey as the next threat to eliminate after Iran. The left, not liberals but actual an…

>he is a white supremacists He says constantly that he is against blood guilt, the killing of innocents no matter their heritage, and even went so far as to say that he doesn't even necessarily think the large scale replacement of white people in their home countries is a bad thing. I don't know how you could consider that to be white supremacy.

Yeah, I mean, if you ignore maybe half of the things he says about Black Americans or immigrants, you could maybe not see him as a white supremacist. Tucker Carlson is a good political communicator, and he is clever. But he's still a bad person.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#329

Post by ReptileMan »

conception wrote: post #324
ReptileMan wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Yes, this is definitely a way to gain leadership that is more amenable. There definitely has not been any historical cases of one country inflecting mass suffering on another country’s innocent population for the other to hold.. let’s say a strong grudge against the aggressor.

And there are cases like Vietnam that are USA best buddies now. And a lot of people that grew on a morning brew of agent orange and napalm are in their leadership now.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#330

Post by ViewTrick1002 »

lxgr wrote: post #317
dalyons wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you have to go to absolutes? If 90% of countries can be 80+% self sufficient, that’s still an amazing thing

If you're 80% self-sufficient, you're not self-sufficient.

But the dependency turns from a stop the world calamity to an annoyance.

If you’re 95% self sufficient it will stay at headlines in the local press.

Post reply on HN