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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#211

Post by redwood »

khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

Everyone knew the Iranians would close the strait and that it would take time to re-open it. That was the price the administration was willing to pay. Put differently, the regime's traditional deterrence did not work against this administration. You seem to think the administration would not have done this thing with what we know now. What makes you think that?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#212

Post by pydry »

pphysch wrote: post #176
pm90 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its what happens when you surround yourself with incompetent yes men.

It is a ring of incompetent yes men, but behind those yes men is a nefarious foreign influence operation. These guys didn't arrive at their bad decisions by accident.

When you listen to the director of counterterrorism explain what happened in the run up to him resigning it fits pretty well the theory that Trump is compromised (possibly with kompromat) by a certain Middle Eastern country.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#213

Post by eigenspace »

dsign wrote: post #193
eigenspace wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who could have possibly guessed that when voting for fascists, they'd start doing the same thing as all the other fascists.

You can’t say that. Trump is very inconsistent and a consummated liar, so plenty of people didn’t believe on his promises to deliver fascism. And plenty of people did believe on his promise to end wars. /s Whether your little black heart wishes concentration camps or you’re just hoping your paycheck goes a bit further, voting for a con man is a terrible idea.

You write "/s" but that's unironically the logic a lot of these idiot enablers use.

"Oh he's just trolling", "it's a negotiation tactic, didn't you read his book?", "chill out, it's just a joke", "but what about OBAMA!?"

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#214

Post by GJim »

jmye wrote: post #183
roryirvine wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was certainly notable that so many HNers seemed absolutely certain that the Kurds would come to the USA's aid, ignoring the fact that America had facilitated the one-sided ceasefire imposed on Rojava just weeks before. A few more sceptical voices brought this up, and were told repeatedly that it didn't matter because the Kurds in Syria and Turkey are very different from those in Iraq & Iran. And there's certainly…

> It has to be hard for Americans to realise that their government has pissed so much of the world off so badly. It is not hard, at all, for roughly 1/3 of Americans to understand this. Another 1/3 don't think it, or anything past their TikTok feed, matters. The last 1/3 thought Team America was a documentary.

> It is not hard, at all, for roughly 1/3 of Americans to understand this.

Sorry, but I don't think they do understand.

America has managed to piss off Canada FFS. And lets be honest, you've got to work really hard to piss off the Canadians.

Frankly, Americans (former) allies have seen the American people VOTE for Trump. Twice. Even if Trump goes tomorrow, the (former) allies know what a significant proportion of the US people want in a leader, and so may be in store at the next election.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#215

Post by surgical_fire »

hersko wrote: post #188
surgical_fire wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran is poorer than it was before, even more of a problem than it was before. Iran seemingly is coming out of this mess stronger than it was before. The regime remains unchanged, and is likely less willing to make concessions now. Hell, even sanctions on it being able to sell oil have been lifted, which is a boon to their economy. They are in effective control of the strait, and justified in exercising it now. Yeah…

> Iran seemingly is coming out of this mess stronger than it was before. This is a wild take. Their top leaders and generals have been killed, they have no control over their own airspace, have their military and civilian infrastructure completely at the mercy of their enemies, and have no navy/airforce any more. Oh, and their currency collapsed. But other than that they are doing great.

Yeah, and for some reason this place that has "military and civilian infrastructure" completely at the mercy of their enemies is right now exercising full control of one extremely important sea trade route, and is wreaking havoc on all gulf states allied to the US, and is successfully hitting targets on Israel.

Facts have this annoying tendency of getting in the way of propaganda.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#216

Post by citrin_ru »

beloch wrote: post #71

A few thoughts. 1. The straight of Hormuz is crazy because of the sheer amount of options Iran has to threaten shipping. It's so narrow that they can even hit ships with artillery fire . No need for missiles or drones at all! Lobbing kinetic shells may sound primitive, but anti-missile defences are designed to deal with large projectiles with minutes or hours of warning, not shell-sized projectiles that hit within se…

> It's so narrow that they can even hit ships with artillery fire.

I'm not a military export but it doesn't look like a very good option. To get accurate targeting information Iran will have to use radars. Radars can be detected and destroyed given that the US has air dominance. Also as soon as artillery will start to fire their position will be calculated by counter-battery radars (and they will be destroyed again thanks to air dominance).

So drones (both UAV and unmanned USV) are likely more viable options for Iran.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#217

Post by ses1984 »

redwood wrote: post #210
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

I see a lot of people throw this "no revolution" perspective around when everyone involved has been very clear to the Iranian people: that this is the time to stay safe and inside. People rising up will take time, and will be highly unpredictable. No one said otherwise. You imply "analysts already had this all identified" yet you are putting forward a supposition here that's just wildly unrealistic.

Donald trump addressed the Iranian people in a video message and told them to rise up when the war began.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#218

Post by gherkinnn »

hackandthink wrote: post #170
pas wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember his protracted war posts, and ... indeed there's still a war going there, and fortunately it did not even get into the anticipated guerilla phase. Can you elaborate a bit on what was unrealistic? (Maybe you have different posts or claims by him in mind?)

I checked the blog, You have a point. Brett Devereux was more cautious. "If you are trying to follow the War in Ukraine, I strongly suggest watching the War on the Rocks podcasts for the times they bring in Michael Kofman." I’ve been caught up in “guilt by association” here. Michael Kofman always struck me as a cheap propagandist. (but I should shut up now)

Paying WoR subscriber here. Kofman likes to talk a lot and can't interview others because of it. He is also clearly pro-Ukraine.

But I never saw him as a cheap propagandist. Not even an expensive one.

Despite his obvious allegiance, he regularly criticised UAs actions and never went for any of the hurrah-hurr-durr delusions you had anywhere else. During the siege of Bachmut he repeatedly and clearly said that UA has nothing to gain from holding out. I remember him openly critical of the sacking of the defence minister, candidly describing the problems in UAs recruitment, never hyped up drones, avoided predictions and after that first fiasco with Trump and Vance last year he did not hold back criticism towards Zelensky and not once can I remember him painting the Russians as morons. On the contrary, in one episode he dismisses any sort of essentialism and related chauvinism, this was when refuting the idea that broad parallels can be seen between Napoleonic and today's Russia.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#220

Post by roryirvine »

TitaRusell wrote: post #201
roryirvine wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was certainly notable that so many HNers seemed absolutely certain that the Kurds would come to the USA's aid, ignoring the fact that America had facilitated the one-sided ceasefire imposed on Rojava just weeks before. A few more sceptical voices brought this up, and were told repeatedly that it didn't matter because the Kurds in Syria and Turkey are very different from those in Iraq & Iran. And there's certainly…

Turkey- a key US ally- will never allow the formation of an independent Kurdish nation near their borders.

Sure, and the question really came down to how much autonomy they'd end up getting within an integrated Syria. The answer turns out to be "not much".

And to make matters worse, Trump didn't even make an attempt to let them down gently - saying "the Kurds were paid tremendous amounts of money, were given oil and other things. So they were doing it for themselves more so than they were doing it for us"...

...and then, 4 weeks later, expected their Iraqi and Iranian cousins to ride to the USA's aid!

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