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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#191

Post by sysguest »

usrbinbash wrote: post #178
sysguest wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what will happen due to iran's dickhead move... Being bombed does not mean it can target non-combatant countries without consequences... Nor does it mean it can start tolling ships $2M per voyages... Now that current iran regime has learnt it can do those things... what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? Form a coalition against iran, and send troops to chan…

> iran's dickhead move... Remind me again, which country started this whole mess? > what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? They can go "yeah, you know, the US has been less than reliable as an ally recently, what with absurd tariffs, saber rattling around greenland, belitteling NATO, etc., and they seem unwilling to change, so we're just gonna pay the piper, and g…

> which country started this whole mess?

what has already started, is already started -- I agree on Trump being dick, but does that make iran's "making new enemies" a wise move?

> NATO already told trump no, other countries won't give different answers.

of course it said no BEFORE IRAN started the $2M toll (and other countries don't like trump due to tariff-for-everyone)

if the current iran regime was strategically wise, iran should have fired everything it got to Israel, and make the missile interception rate down to 40%. That would have actually showed it's power.

now, with even UAE's missile interception rate of 96%, iran actually showed its missiles are nuisances, not some existential threat.

600,000 men and 300,000 in reserve -- well that would have mattered a lot in medieval wars... "they have an airforce" -- well do they actually have planes? "have a working intelligence network" -- hmm...

no you're way way way over-estimating iran

the only strategic move for iran was selecting one specific target (israel) and focusing all its might, not becoming a rambo

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#192

Post by expedition32 »

khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

Perceived? US politicians are all mutli millionaires no matter what happens they will be golfing in Hawaii.

At least Roman emperors got assassinated by their own bodyguards.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#193

Post by dsign »

eigenspace wrote: post #167
ardit33 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one in the US asked for this. Such a dumb move from the current administration.

Who could have possibly guessed that when voting for fascists, they'd start doing the same thing as all the other fascists.

You can’t say that. Trump is very inconsistent and a consummated liar, so plenty of people didn’t believe on his promises to deliver fascism. And plenty of people did believe on his promise to end wars. /s

Whether your little black heart wishes concentration camps or you’re just hoping your paycheck goes a bit further, voting for a con man is a terrible idea.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#194

Post by klipt »

beloch wrote: post #61
Synaesthesia wrote: post #8

He writes that the region is not very important to the USA. It's not, but it is a strategically important area, not only in terms of its location, at the nexus of Asia, Africa and Europe, but also because of the oil there. Now the US is not dependent on Middle Eastern Oil, but Japan, China and other countries are. So controlling the region will mean a lever of power over those regions.

At present, gasoline prices in China have risen by 11% since the war started. In the U.S., they have risen by 33%. The U.S. is dependent on oil and the oil market is global. Even if the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, Americans still pay increased prices for pretty much everything as a result and the economy suffers. The only way around this would be a scheme in which domestic oil producers are forced to sell to Ameri…

Imagine if the US government diverted the billions spent on this war into building out green energy infrastructure.

If everyone had electric cars charging from solar then Iran's strait gambit would be much less effective.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#195

Post by pixl97 »

daemoens wrote: post #163
somenameforme wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just this administration. Everything with the US military has been going clearly downhill since the Millennium Challenge 2002. [1] It was, appropriately enough, a wargame simulating an invasion of Iran. It was a major event involving preparation in years and thousands of individual operators. When it was carried out the invading force was defeated by unexpected resources and resourcefulness from the Iranian…

The Millennium Challenge 2002 is discredited because it had motorcycle couriers that moved at light speed handling all communications and 10' speed boats launching 19' missiles.

Well shit, we should have paid attention when Iran developed light speed motorcycles evidently.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#196

Post by nwellnhof »

GolfPopper wrote: post #19
bawolff wrote: post #6

> And I do want to stress that. There is a frequent mistake, often from folks who deal in economics, to assume that countries will give up on wars when the economics turn bad. But countries are often very willing to throw good money after bad even on distant wars of choice. On the other hand isn't this how the russian revolution happened? An economic crisis due to a prolonged war leading to a revolution? While i woul…

I would not wager money on a revolution coming from this war, either. But if a revolution does come as a result of the war, it seems at least as likely to be in the United States as in Iran.

I think a revolution caused by this war is more likely in countries like Egypt. The Arab Spring was triggered by a rise in food prices after all.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#197

Post by sysguest »

pphysch wrote: post #179
sysguest wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what will happen due to iran's dickhead move... Being bombed does not mean it can target non-combatant countries without consequences... Nor does it mean it can start tolling ships $2M per voyages... Now that current iran regime has learnt it can do those things... what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? Form a coalition against iran, and send troops to chan…

[flagged]

woah so you read this as "iran is morally wrong"?

well, that's secondary thing right now

what's dumb is dumb

what's the least thing you should do when fighting a war? making more enemies.

even on moral side... if someone in walmart bullies you, and you bully back to your classmates, does that make you morally justified?

plus, if you showed your cards ("decades-old deterrence threats"), you're out of options

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#198

Post by bradleyankrom »

scott_w wrote: post #50
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

Honestly, the way this administration has behaved makes me think someone there is obsessed with playing Total War and thinks that’s how the real world works. It’s all about winning battles and painting the map red, white and blue (Greenland, Venezuela, now Iran) with no thought to what they want to achieve beyond that.

Hegseth?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#199

Post by sysguest »

klipt wrote: post #186
sysguest wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

idk this move, along with firing missiles even to non-combatant countries, is going to fuk-up iran... I mean, even before the $2M toll, if you're kuwait/UAE/saudi/etc, what choice do you have? form a coalition against iran now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships... so what choice do all those strait-using countries have? pay $2M or more, even after US leaves? nope... they'll form a coali…

> now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships... But the strait has two sides and Iran only controls one side. The UAE/Oman on the other side could equally threaten to attack Iranian ships unless Iran pays them a toll.

well I guess that makes Iran really fked up...

the strait-using countries are surely going to "make a lesson out of" iran exactly for that reason

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#200

Post by mrexcess »

daemoens wrote: post #163
somenameforme wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just this administration. Everything with the US military has been going clearly downhill since the Millennium Challenge 2002. [1] It was, appropriately enough, a wargame simulating an invasion of Iran. It was a major event involving preparation in years and thousands of individual operators. When it was carried out the invading force was defeated by unexpected resources and resourcefulness from the Iranian…

The Millennium Challenge 2002 is discredited because it had motorcycle couriers that moved at light speed handling all communications and 10' speed boats launching 19' missiles.

After being restarted, the red (opposing) force general resigned due to the restarted game having what amounted to a scripted end, with little to no latitude for the red force to exercise creativity in strategy or tactics. Among the highlights, the red force were required to turn on and leave on their AA radars so that blue force HARMs could take them out, and the red force was prohibited from attempting to shoot down any of the 82nd airborne / marine air assault forces during the assault.

Gen. Van Riper's tactics were apparently discredited in 2002 because they were unfair, but Iran seems not to have received the memo since their moves bear more than a passing resemblance to his.

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