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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#171

Post by eigenspace »

spwa4 wrote: post #143

[flagged]

"Just" taking Karg Island, 300 km of coastline, and 4 other tiny islands leaves the US occupying forces as sitting ducks under constant bombardment and drone attacks from the Iranian mainland.

US service members would be constantly getting killed, causing inevitable escalation and deeper and deeper incursions. It's a quagmire.

This stuff is the exact same reason Israel constantly feels the need to peel more territory off their neighbours after each war. "We're getting bombed near the borders, so we need to push our borders out to keep the border regions safe", which of course just creates a new, even bigger border region.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#172

Post by cucumber3732842 »

bigyabai wrote: post #48
pocksuppet wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone should have this option turned on.

As someone with it on, I'm very glad off is the default.

The majority are spam and rage baiting but a large enough amount to be concerning seem to be simply middle of the road opinions by otherwise fairly normal users who have strayed to far from the group in terms of some combination of tone or politics.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#173

Post by sysguest »

samrus wrote: post #97
johnohara wrote: post #72

The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The most important aspect of the "toll" is that Iran prefers payment in yuan, not dollars. If Iran succeeds in nationalizing the Straight and is successful in enforcing the toll, it represents a very serious threat to the dominance of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency for trading energy.

It would legitimately be hilarious though if the result of this conflict was iran being the one to enact regime change. In terms of the global order

That's what will happen due to iran's dickhead move...

Being bombed does not mean it can target non-combatant countries without consequences... Nor does it mean it can start tolling ships $2M per voyages...

Now that current iran regime has learnt it can do those things...

what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have?

Form a coalition against iran, and send troops to change the regime...

even if US backs away, the others will finish the job

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#174

Post by triceratops »

georgemcbay wrote: post #14

> Please understand me: the people in these countries are not important, but as a matter of national strategy, some places are more important than others. I assume/hope this was meant to say "the people in these countries are not [un]important"? (or just "are important") As an entirely secular person, I believe every innocent human life is important.

I think he meant to write "not unimportant". His proofreading isn't perfect and he has typos or missing words in a lot of his work. I'm a fan of the work itself.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#175

Post by generic92034 »

roryirvine wrote: post #164
orwin wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not all. I tried as much as I could not commenting on it, but the delusions of _a lot_ of hn users on the subject, even a few whose opinion I respect, were unreal. People who are not MAGA btw. And I'm not sure most of those realise how delusional they were, even now. They will probably rewire their memory to forget what they believed 3 weeks ago, compress the time they were wrong. I initially thought the 'manufa…

It was certainly notable that so many HNers seemed absolutely certain that the Kurds would come to the USA's aid, ignoring the fact that America had facilitated the one-sided ceasefire imposed on Rojava just weeks before. A few more sceptical voices brought this up, and were told repeatedly that it didn't matter because the Kurds in Syria and Turkey are very different from those in Iraq & Iran. And there's certainly…

Possibly they think they can make up what they lost in good will and cooperation with blackmail and pressure. It is doubtful it will work as reliably as in the past, though (second order effects even left aside).

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#176

Post by pphysch »

pm90 wrote: post #33
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

Its what happens when you surround yourself with incompetent yes men.

It is a ring of incompetent yes men, but behind those yes men is a nefarious foreign influence operation. These guys didn't arrive at their bad decisions by accident.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#177

Post by tptacek »

johnohara wrote: post #72

The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The most important aspect of the "toll" is that Iran prefers payment in yuan, not dollars. If Iran succeeds in nationalizing the Straight and is successful in enforcing the toll, it represents a very serious threat to the dominance of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency for trading energy.

Seems pretty unlikely that the Yuan is going to be the dominant world currency, given its capital controls.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#178

Post by usrbinbash »

sysguest wrote: post #173
samrus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would legitimately be hilarious though if the result of this conflict was iran being the one to enact regime change. In terms of the global order

That's what will happen due to iran's dickhead move... Being bombed does not mean it can target non-combatant countries without consequences... Nor does it mean it can start tolling ships $2M per voyages... Now that current iran regime has learnt it can do those things... what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? Form a coalition against iran, and send troops to chan…

> iran's dickhead move...

Remind me again, which country started this whole mess?

> what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have?

They can go "yeah, you know, the US has been less than reliable as an ally recently, what with absurd tariffs, saber rattling around greenland, belitteling NATO, etc., and they seem unwilling to change, so we're just gonna pay the piper, and get oil, and make arrangements with the Chinese (aka. the worlds most powerful industry), and if they US doesn't like it, that sounds like a them-problem..."

What's very likely not gonna happen, is other countries fighting the US's war for them. NATO already told trump no, other countries won't give different answers.

And anyone who wants to actually invade Iran...well, let's put it this way: Iran is 3-4 times the size of Afghanistan, with even more difficult terrain, and has a standing army of 600,000 men, with over 300,000 in reserve. They have an air force, are proficient in the manufacture of drones, have a working intelligence network. And they've had 4 decades to dig into defensive positions.

In short, it's not gonna happen.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#179

Post by pphysch »

sysguest wrote: post #173
samrus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would legitimately be hilarious though if the result of this conflict was iran being the one to enact regime change. In terms of the global order

That's what will happen due to iran's dickhead move... Being bombed does not mean it can target non-combatant countries without consequences... Nor does it mean it can start tolling ships $2M per voyages... Now that current iran regime has learnt it can do those things... what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? Form a coalition against iran, and send troops to chan…

[flagged]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#180

Post by fogzen »

sysguest wrote: post #173
samrus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would legitimately be hilarious though if the result of this conflict was iran being the one to enact regime change. In terms of the global order

That's what will happen due to iran's dickhead move... Being bombed does not mean it can target non-combatant countries without consequences... Nor does it mean it can start tolling ships $2M per voyages... Now that current iran regime has learnt it can do those things... what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? Form a coalition against iran, and send troops to chan…

Delusional. The GCC has only 40,000 troops.
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