Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Miscellanea: The War in Iran

acoup.blog

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 1001 posts

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#91

Post by decimalenough »

Synaesthesia wrote: post #80
ardit33 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is to benefit Israel (so it can anex more territory in Lebanon), and it has no benefit to the US. The US had already a deal with Iran, which didn't threat its own interests directly. It is like leave a snake alone, but once you step into it, it will bite you. This war is only to benefit Israel, and right now indirectly Russia (due to the rising prices). Basically, the US is the main loser/sucker in this war, and w…

Israel is an arm of the US empire. It's a very useful ally of the US in the region. And when I talk about the US here I mean ruling elites. The US is doing just fine from this war. The US is an oil and gas producer, the largest in the world. So they benefit from rising prices. I'd say the biggest losers are countries like Europe, and neutral oil importing countries around the world.

The oil and gas producers benefit from higher prices, in the same way that glaziers benefit from broken windows. Everybody else loses though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#92

Post by surgical_fire »

scott_w wrote: post #50
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

Honestly, the way this administration has behaved makes me think someone there is obsessed with playing Total War and thinks that’s how the real world works. It’s all about winning battles and painting the map red, white and blue (Greenland, Venezuela, now Iran) with no thought to what they want to achieve beyond that.

And here I thought that they acted more like Tropico players.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#93

Post by SirFatty »

nicbou wrote: post #75
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

I have been thinking about this scene a lot recently: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hj_4KIKHRFY&t=60s America is isolating itself in so many ways. You could rewrite that scene and reach the same conclusion.

[flagged]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#94

Post by littlecranky67 »

bluealienpie wrote: post #44
littlecranky67 wrote: post #35

[flagged]

Nor the hundreds of thousands murder by Israel in a genocide, which is why his strategic analysis doesn't see the gulf states are at risk of collapse if they engage Iran on what is perceived to be on Israel's behalf.

So the US can't help stop a slaughter because they don't help stop all slaughters in the world, is that your logic?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#95

Post by Certhas »

Synaesthesia wrote: post #8

He writes that the region is not very important to the USA. It's not, but it is a strategically important area, not only in terms of its location, at the nexus of Asia, Africa and Europe, but also because of the oil there. Now the US is not dependent on Middle Eastern Oil, but Japan, China and other countries are. So controlling the region will mean a lever of power over those regions.

The article states that it's not important for any reason other than oil and shipping:

"The entire region has exactly two strategic concerns of note: the Suez Canal (and connected Red Sea shipping system) and the oil production in the Persian Gulf and the shipping system used to export it. So long as these two arteries remained open the region does not matter very much to the United States."

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#96

Post by underdeserver »

bigyabai wrote: post #42
underdeserver wrote: post #22

[flagged]

> I don't understand what this article has to do with Hacker News. Judging by your comment history it seems to be the majority of what you discuss. Maybe you're not the best judge of what HN finds interesting or salient.

I'm basing that opinion on the FAQ that states that most politics stories are irrelevant. But sure, I'm one vote among tens of thousands, and it's up to the mods to decide.

It's most of my comment history recently because I have family and friends in the region and I'm admittedly triggered by the callousness, heartlessness and sanctimony I see in these comments. It's not healthy, I know.

People are trying to preach good and honest values but are doing so through narrow, biased, misinformed and presupposed views of reality that are completely detached from what's actually going on on the ground, which you could tell by talking to anyone actually living there.

But that's beside the point. I was pointing out an objective observation: The Trump administration has said from day one that if regime change happens, it won't be by American hands, but by Iranian protesters' hands.

These protesters are being asked by all sides to stay home so the US and Israel can keep bombing Basij outposts without hurting them. They're doing just that. Where is the failure? All that's being demonstrated is this analyst's impatience.

It might work. It might not. But we'll only know in a few months.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#97

Post by samrus »

johnohara wrote: post #72

The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The most important aspect of the "toll" is that Iran prefers payment in yuan, not dollars. If Iran succeeds in nationalizing the Straight and is successful in enforcing the toll, it represents a very serious threat to the dominance of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency for trading energy.

It would legitimately be hilarious though if the result of this conflict was iran being the one to enact regime change. In terms of the global order

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#98

Post by pas »

fruit2020 wrote: post #24
Synaesthesia wrote: post #8

He writes that the region is not very important to the USA. It's not, but it is a strategically important area, not only in terms of its location, at the nexus of Asia, Africa and Europe, but also because of the oil there. Now the US is not dependent on Middle Eastern Oil, but Japan, China and other countries are. So controlling the region will mean a lever of power over those regions.

So it’s not about nuclear weapons?

the nuclear weapons program has cost about 2T USD for Iran, and definitely makes certain arguments for intervention more acceptable, but it doesn't negate the other side of the equation. the cost of intervention is still enormous. (and since the enriched uranium is an obvious target it is obviously even more protected)

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#99

Post by pas »

georgemcbay wrote: post #14

> Please understand me: the people in these countries are not important, but as a matter of national strategy, some places are more important than others. I assume/hope this was meant to say "the people in these countries are not [un]important"? (or just "are important") As an entirely secular person, I believe every innocent human life is important.

He emphasizes relative importance, he doesn't claim that the actual people are not important.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#100

Post by Hikikomori »

energy123 wrote: post #45
GolfPopper wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons I've been hearing that line, from the same person for thirty years : https://www.news18.com/world/weeks-away-by-next-spring-video...

[flagged]

Those people with a straight face was all US intelligence agencies and their leaders that also testified to congress as Trump ripped up the deal because Obama did it. Are you saying that all US intelligence agency were wrong?
Post reply on HN