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Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

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Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#101

I have long said I am an AI doubter until AI could print out the answers to hard problems or ones requiring tons of innovation. Assuming this is verified to be correct (not by AI) then I just became a believer. I would like to see a few more AI inventions to know for sure, but wow, it really is a new and exciting world. I really hope we use this intelligence resource to make the world better.

Math and coding competition problems are easier to train because of strict rules and cheap verification. But once you go beyond that to less defined things such as code quality, where even humans have hard time putting down concrete axioms, they start to hallucinate more and become less useful. We are missing the value function that allowed AlphaGo to go from mid range player trained on human moves to superhuman by p…

Maybe to get a real breakthrough we have to make programming languages / tools better suited for LLM strengths not fuss so much about making it write code we like. What we need is correct code not nice looking code.

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Math and coding competition problems are easier to train because of strict rules and cheap verification. But once you go beyond that to less defined things such as code quality, where even humans have hard time putting down concrete axioms, they start to hallucinate more and become less useful. We are missing the value function that allowed AlphaGo to go from mid range player trained on human moves to superhuman by p…

Maybe to get a real breakthrough we have to make programming languages / tools better suited for LLM strengths not fuss so much about making it write code we like. What we need is correct code not nice looking code.

Lean might be a step in that direction.

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Math and coding competition problems are easier to train because of strict rules and cheap verification. But once you go beyond that to less defined things such as code quality, where even humans have hard time putting down concrete axioms, they start to hallucinate more and become less useful. We are missing the value function that allowed AlphaGo to go from mid range player trained on human moves to superhuman by p…

LLMs can often guess the final answer, but the intermediate proof steps are always total bunk. When doing math you only ever care about the proof, not the answer itself.

Once you have a working proof, no matter how bad, you can work towards making it nicer. It's like refactoring in programming.

If your proof is machine checkable, that's even easier.

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#104
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but it has seen The Raven, it has seen texts about Dick Cheney, first dates, Queen Elizabeth, time machines and Lin Manuel Miranda. All of its output is based on those things it has seen.

What are you trying to point out here ? Is there any question you can ask today that is not dependent on some existing knowledge that an AI would have seen ?

The point I'm trying to make is that all LLM output is based on likelihood of one word coming after the next word based on the prompt. That is literally all it's doing.

It's not "thinking." It's not "solving." It's simply stringing words together in a way that appears most likely.

ChatGPT cannot do math. It can only string together words and numbers in a way that can convince an outsider that it can do math.

It's a parlor trick, like Clever Hans [1]. A very impressive parlor trick that is very convincing to people who are not familiar with what it's doing, but a parlor trick nontheless.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#105
post #55

I have long said I am an AI doubter until AI could print out the answers to hard problems or ones requiring tons of innovation. Assuming this is verified to be correct (not by AI) then I just became a believer. I would like to see a few more AI inventions to know for sure, but wow, it really is a new and exciting world. I really hope we use this intelligence resource to make the world better.

AI is a remixer; it remixes all known ideas together. It won't come up with new ideas though; the LLMs just predict the most likely next token based on the context. That means the group of characters it outputs must have been quite common in the past. It won't add a new group of characters it has never seen before on its own.

No. That's wrong. LLMs don't output the highest probability taken: they do a random sampling.

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#106

As someone with only passing exposure to serious math, this section was by far the most interesting to me: > The author assessed the problem as follows. > [number of mathematicians familiar, number trying, how long an expert would take, how notable, etc] How reliably can we know these things a-priori? Are these mostly guesses? I don't mean to diminish the value of guesses; I'm curious how reliable these kinds of gues…

Certainly knowing how many/which people are working on a problem you are looking at, and how long it will take you to solve it, are critical skills in being a working researcher. What kind of answer are you looking for? It's hard to quantify. Most suck at this type of assessment as a PhD student and then you get better as time goes on.

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#107
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I entered the prompt: > Write me a stanza in the style of "The Raven" about Dick Cheney on a first date with Queen Elizabeth I facilitated by a Time Travel Machine invented by Lin-Manuel Miranda It outputted a group of characters that I can virtually guarantee you it has never seen before on its own

Yes, but it has seen The Raven, it has seen texts about Dick Cheney, first dates, Queen Elizabeth, time machines and Lin Manuel Miranda. All of its output is based on those things it has seen.

[deleted]

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#108
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a correct explanation of how things work these days. RL has really changed things.

Models based on RL are still just remixers as defined above, but their distribution can cover things that are unknown to humans due to being present in the synthetic training data, but not present in the corpus of human awareness. AlphaGo's move 37 is an example. It appears creative and new to outside observers, and it is creative and new, but it's not because the model is figuring out something new on the spot, it's…

> the model is summoning those patterns at inference time.

You can make that claim about anything: "The human isn't being creative when they write a novel, they're just summoning patterns at typing time".

AlphaGo taught itself that move, then recalled it later. That's the bar for human creativity and you're holding AlphaGo to a higher standard without realizing it.

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#109

I don't know why I am still perpetually shocked that the default assumption is that humans are somehow unique. It's this pervasive belief that underlies so much discussion around what it means to be intelligent. The null hypothesis goes out the window. People constantly make comments like "well it's just trying a bunch of stuff until something works" and it seems that they do not pause for a moment to consider whethe…

The ability to learn and infer without absorbing millions of books and all text on internet really does make us special. And only at 20 watts!

Last I checked humans didn't pop into existence doing that. It happened after billions of years of brute force, trial and error evolution. So well done for falling into the exact same trap the OP cautions. Intelligence from scratch requires a mind boggling amount of resources, and humans were no different.

Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem

#110
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is a remixer; it remixes all known ideas together. It won't come up with new ideas though; the LLMs just predict the most likely next token based on the context. That means the group of characters it outputs must have been quite common in the past. It won't add a new group of characters it has never seen before on its own.

Yes, ChatGPT and friends are essentially the same thing as the predictive text keyboard on your phone, but scaled up and trained on more data.

So this idea that they replay "text" they saw before is kind of wrong fundamentally. They replay "abstract concepts of varied conceptual levels".
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